Navigate

Arrigan Memorial Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 6 6
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 12 12
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 25 25
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 28 28
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 28 28
6 George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 32 32
7 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 37 37
8 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 9 39 39
9 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 10 48 48
10 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 8 48 48
11 American University American University Eagles 2 50 50
12 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 50 50
13 American University American University Eagles 1 57 57
14 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 1 72 72
15 American University American University Eagles 3 72 72
16 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 2 77 77
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 1 1 2 1 1 6 Benjamin Smith '26
Alexis Tamm '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 2 2 1 2 5 12 Kelly Bates '26
Margot Gordon '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 9 3 7 4 2 25 Alexa Shea '26
Louisa Buckingham '24
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 4 7 3 5 9 28 Adelia Derose '26
Poshu Ng '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 6 6 6 6 4 28 Helen O’Neill '27
Meredith Monnich '27
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 3 9 11 3 6 32 Eva Wieting '26
Alexandra Lee '25
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 12 4 5 8 8 37
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 9 8 5 8 11 7 39 Liam Farrel '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 10 7 8 10 12 11 48
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 8 13 15 4 13 3 48 Thomas Clauson '26
Jack Duffy '27
American University American University Eagles 2 5 12 9 10 14 50 Hannah Arey '27
Katherine Anderson '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 10 10 13 7 10 50 Adelia Derose '26
Poshu Ng '27
American University American University Eagles 1 11 13 12 9 12 57 James Cottage '27
Ella Dentinger '26
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 1 14 14 16 15 13 72 Benedict Gorman '25
Faith Dickerson '25
American University American University Eagles 3 DNF 11 14 14 16 72 Stephen Blair '24
Lauren Wren '24
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 2 15 16 15 16 15 77 John Anthony Caraig '27
Isabel Fay '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles 111111
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles 222222
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles 333333
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals 144444
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals 255555
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries66666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 177777
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 101616161616
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 288888
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 399999
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 41010101010
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 51111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 61212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 71313131313
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 81414141414
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 91515151515

Conditions — 04/26/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From ESE (103°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1030.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →