Bow-to-Stern Trophy Regatta

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack A 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 12 Robert Chase '26
Marc Hauenstein '27
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror B 5 2 3 5 5 3 4 2 2 31 Will Finch '24
Magnolia Smith '25
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack B 6 OCS 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 34 John Richards '26
Lindsey Mcdonough '25
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror A 3 13 4 3 3 4 7 5 BKD 47 Tucker Parks '25
Julia Boutet '27
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles A 4 3 6 4 4 6 8 8 4 47 Zechariah Frantz '25
Suhas Medidi '26
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Blue & Gold A 2 4 7 7 11 8 6 6 5 56 Timothy Dolan '25
Nathan Willhite '27
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles B 9 10 5 6 7 11 3 4 7 62 Rylie Cataldo '27
Paige Arneson '25
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks B 11 5 10 9 8 13 5 7 6 74 Emma Gouiran '24
Alana Vodicka '26
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels A 8 7 8 10 10 5 10 10 9 77 May Proctor '27
Megan Miller '26
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Blue & Gold B 7 9 14 14 6 10 9 9 8 86 Josh Rosen '26
Sunny Odom '27
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks B 12 6 9 8 9 9 11 13 12 89 Caswell Kern '26
Christopher Tierney '27
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels B 13 12 11 12 12 7 12 11 10 100 Runyon Tyler '26 [1-9]
Sydney Moser '27 [1-3]
Hannah Hodges '26 [4-9]
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks A 10 8 13 11 13 12 13 12 11 103 Tyler Williams '26
Theodore Cirone '26
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks A 14 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 119 Julia Morash '27
Carley Yount '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Blue & Gold222111141414
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles111222333
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels555666777
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror444333222
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack333444555
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks777888999
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks666555444

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Blue & Gold999101010111111
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles888777666
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels121212111111101010
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror111111121212131313
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack101010999888
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks141414131313121212
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks131313141414111

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From NNW (329°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine6.5 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1012.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.48 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →