Halifax River Invitational

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 43
2 University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 53
3 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 74
4 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 76
5 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Blue & Gold 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish A 1 2 1 1 1 2 8 Dawson Kohl '27
Priscilla Foster '27
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights A 4 1 2 2 2 3 14 Julian Larsen '26
Hudson Jenkins '25
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Blue & Gold A 2 3 6 3 3 9 26 Timothy Dolan '26
Paige Arneson '25
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers A 7 9 3 6 4 4 33 Alvin Tang '24
Jeppe Nielsen '27
Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish B 3 6 7 7 7 5 35 Nathan Hjort '27 [1-3]
Aubrey Holloway '24 [4-6]
Aubrey Holloway '24 [1-3]
Nathan Hjort '27 [4-6]
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles A 10 8 9 4 5 1 37 Rylie Cataldo '27
Abigail Mccollum '27
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles B 6 4 4 8 9 6 37 Josh Rosen '26
Sunny Odom '27
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights B 9 5 5 5 8 7 39 Nikolas Pantelis '24
Nicolas Benavides '25
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers B 5 7 8 9 6 8 43 Nicholas Golino '24
Julia Nicholson '27
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Blue & Gold B 8 10 10 10 10 10 58 Suhas Medidi '26
Nathan Willhite '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Blue & Gold222111
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles111222
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers333444
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish444333
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights555666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Blue & Gold777888
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles666555
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers888777
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish999101010
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights101010999

Conditions — 02/10/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1021.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Embry-Riddle: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.45 ± 0.36)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Embry-Riddle by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Embry-Riddle, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →