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Arrigan Memorial Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 40
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 42
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 44
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 45
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 46
6 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 48
7 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 50
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 A 1 5 3 9 Mateo Di Blasi '25 [1, 3]
Caro Gaston '25 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 A 10 2 4 16 Kelly Bates '26 [1, 3]
Scarlett Harris '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 A 14 1 1 16 Jeffrey Petersen '25 [1, 3]
Ellie Smith '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 B 5 6 5 16 Thomas Daniels '26 [1, 3]
Vaughn Slatoff '26 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 A 2 9 6 17 Piper Holthus '25 [1, 3]
Colin Pryma '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 B 6 3 9 18 Brady Read '28 [1, 3]
Nathan Van Doorn '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 B 3 14 2 19 Isabel Massey '27 [1]
Meredith Monnich '27 [2]
Adelia Derose '26 [3]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 A 8 4 10 22 Benjamin Smith '26 [1, 3]
Abigail Chang '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 A 9 7 7 23 Peter Barnard '27 [1, 3]
Teddy Stoldt '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 A 4 10 14 28 Diego Escobar '25 [1, 3]
Margot Gordon '26 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 B 11 8 11 30 Jake Julien '28 [1, 3]
Maya Luthi '27 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 B 7 11 13 31 Alexa Shea '26 [1, 3]
Jack Duffy '27 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 7 B 13 13 8 34 Meredith Kean '26 [1, 3]
Jack Pryma '26 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 B 12 12 12 36 Anson Walker '25 [1, 3]
Poshu Ng '27 [2]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 1111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 2222
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 3333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 4444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 5555
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 6666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 7777

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 1888
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 2999
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 3101010
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 4111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 5121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 6131313
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 7141414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Georgetown University Georgetown University Mateo Di Blasi '25 [1, 3]
Caro Gaston '25 [2]
Hoyas 1 Anson Walker '25 [1, 3]
Poshu Ng '27 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Diego Escobar '25 [1, 3]
Margot Gordon '26 [2]
Hoyas 2 Thomas Daniels '26 [1, 3]
Vaughn Slatoff '26 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Peter Barnard '27 [1, 3]
Teddy Stoldt '28 [2]
Hoyas 3 Isabel Massey '27 [1]
Meredith Monnich '27 [2]
Adelia Derose '26 [3]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Piper Holthus '25 [1, 3]
Colin Pryma '28 [2]
Hoyas 4 Alexa Shea '26 [1, 3]
Jack Duffy '27 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Benjamin Smith '26 [1, 3]
Abigail Chang '28 [2]
Hoyas 5 Brady Read '28 [1, 3]
Nathan Van Doorn '28 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Kelly Bates '26 [1, 3]
Scarlett Harris '28 [2]
Hoyas 6 Jake Julien '28 [1, 3]
Maya Luthi '27 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Jeffrey Petersen '25 [1, 3]
Ellie Smith '28 [2]
Hoyas 7 Meredith Kean '26 [1, 3]
Jack Pryma '26 [2]

Conditions — 04/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From SSW (195°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1019.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.69 ± 0.42)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →