Navigate

Thomas H. Stafford, Jr. Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 5 3 8
2 Wake Forest University Wake Forest University Demon Deacons 7 7 14
3 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 9 11 20
4 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 19 9 28
5 Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 14 16 30
6 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 16 18 34
7 Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Commodores 14 21 35
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 3 1 5 Annika Milstien '25
Jane Caroline Minchew '25
Wake Forest University Wake Forest University Demon Deacons 4 1 2 7 Quinn Healey '27
Maria Bassett '27
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 2 4 3 9 Andrew Ettlemyer '27
Willow King '27
Davidson College Davidson College Wildcats 3 6 5 14 Jim Wang '27
Taehee Kim '27
Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Commodores 5 2 7 14 Cameron Johnson '28
Mira Singh '26
University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 7 5 4 16 Emma Gumny '28
No Show
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 6 7 6 19 Anna Pederson '25 [1-2]
Ben Kearney '26 [3]
Ben Kearney '26 [1-2]
No Show [3]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats111
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels333
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack888
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks555
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks444
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Commodores666
Wake Forest UniversityWake Forest University Demon Deacons777

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Davidson CollegeDavidson College Wildcats888
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels444
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack333
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks666
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks555
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Commodores777
Wake Forest UniversityWake Forest University Demon Deacons111

Conditions — 02/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1030.5 hPa

Temperature

38°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 23°F
Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 4.2 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From SSE (147°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1030.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at North Carolina State: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North Carolina State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at North Carolina State).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →