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The Tomahawk Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 4 3 7
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 5 3 8
3 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 5 10 15
4 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 6 9 15
5 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 10 9 19
6 Florida State University Florida State University Seminoles 12 8 20
7 Saints Saints Saints 34 MRP 34 MRP 68 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2026 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles11
SaintsSaints Saints22
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles44
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers33
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins66
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins55
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls77

Division B

Team1B2B
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles22
SaintsSaints Saints33
Florida State UniversityFlorida State University Seminoles55
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers44
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins77
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins66
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls11

Conditions — 03/14/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1019.1 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 3.9 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From E (93°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1019.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Florida State: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.48 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Florida State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Florida State: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →