Harvard University '30
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–6 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 4–6 against 1.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 4.10 | 4–6 | 1.7 | +1.35 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Whalen Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 3.42 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 3.82 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy 2026 | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.5 | 3.29 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 1.17 |
| The 35th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.4 | 3.71 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Max Wolfensberger |  Ransom Everglades School |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
