Harvard University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03 (fleet 1.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–24 (4%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2013 | 2 | 1–24 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 1–24 against 5.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 1.30 | -1.51 | 1–14 | 4.9 | −2.82 | 6.7 | >99% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 1.23 | -1.77 | 0–10 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 1.98 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.02 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 1.71 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.0 | 0.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
