ISSA Singlehanded Champs - Full

HostSehome
Date11/01/2014
TypeNational Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Patrick Shanahan '15	31
2	Antilles School	Colin Brego '16	49
3	Santa Monica High School	Cooper Weitz '15	51
4	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Bryce Andreasen '15	64
5	Branson School	Will Dana '15	66
6	Oxbridge Academy	Brandon Kirby '16	67
7	Point Loma High School	Cole Baker '16	70
8	Long Beach Wilson High School	Riley Gibbs '15	89
9	Jonesboro High School	Max Guerriero '16	89
10	Woodinville High School	Adam Didomizio '15	90
11	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Wade Wagner '15	109
12	Portsmouth High School RI	Tyler Fleig '15	111
13	Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16	117
14	Atlee High School	Eric Roos '15	121
15	Loyola Academy	R J Porter '15	126
16	Bishop Stang High	Preston Duclos '15	147
17	Holy Ghost Prep	Andrew Kraus '16	152
18	Shore Regional	Robert Gruskos '16	163

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Patrick Shanahan '15	9	1	1	2	1	7	2	4	3	1	31
Antilles School	Colin Brego '16	13	2	3	6	5	6	7	1	2	4	49
Santa Monica High School	Cooper Weitz '15	7	8	6	1	15	1	5	2	4	2	51
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Bryce Andreasen '15	6	6	7	3	9	11	9	6	1	6	64
Branson School	Will Dana '15	2	13	2	8	8	3	1	12	14	3	66
Oxbridge Academy	Brandon Kirby '16	10	3	8	4	2	DSQ	4	3	7	7	67
Point Loma High School	Cole Baker '16	3	4	4	16	3	4	10	8	6	12	70
Long Beach Wilson High School	Riley Gibbs '15	1	5	13	5	4	12	15	13	13	8	89
Jonesboro High School	Max Guerriero '16	5	DSQ	14	10	6	2	6	14	8	5	89
Woodinville High School	Adam Didomizio '15	12	16	5	7	7	10	3	9	11	10	90
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Wade Wagner '15	14	10	15	11	10	5	8	7	12	17	109
Portsmouth High School RI	Tyler Fleig '15	16	7	9	9	11	8	12	11	15	13	111
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16	8	DSQ	11	14	14	16	14	5	5	11	117
Atlee High School	Eric Roos '15	15	12	12	17	12	9	11	15	9	9	121
Loyola Academy	R J Porter '15	11	14	10	15	16	13	13	10	10	14	126
Bishop Stang High	Preston Duclos '15	4	15	18	12	17	15	17	16	17	16	147
Holy Ghost Prep	Andrew Kraus '16	17	11	16	13	13	17	16	18	16	15	152
Shore Regional	Robert Gruskos '16	RDG	9	17	18	18	14	18	17	18	18	163

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Patrick Shanahan '15	Shorecrest Preparatory School	10/10	3.08	4.27	+1.19	99th → 99th	3.8	3%	3.1 / 6.4
2	Colin Brego '16	Antilles School	10/10	2.57	3.37	+0.80	93rd → 99th	2.0	16%	4.9 / 7.7
3	Cooper Weitz '15	Santa Monica High School	10/10	1.87	3.19	+1.32	81st → 99th	5.0	5%	5.1 / 9.6
4	Bryce Andreasen '15	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	10/10	1.17^u	3.03	+1.87	64th → 98th	9.5	3%	6.4 / 11.5
5	Will Dana '15	Branson School	10/10	2.23	2.63	+0.40	87th → 94th	0.5	25%	6.6 / 8.6
6	Brandon Kirby '16	Oxbridge Academy	10/10	2.05	3.38	+1.32	83rd → 99th	4.7	20%	6.7 / 9.1
7	Cole Baker '16	Point Loma High School	10/10	2.72	2.58	−0.14	95th → 93rd	0.1	47%	7.0 / 7.4
8	Max Guerriero '16	Jonesboro High School	10/10	1.48	2.55	+1.07	72nd → 92nd	3.3	30%	8.9 / 10.5
8	Riley Gibbs '15	Long Beach Wilson High School	10/10	2.62	2.09	−0.53	94th → 84th	1.2	70%	8.9 / 7.6
10	Adam Didomizio '15	Woodinville High School	10/10	1.23	2.09	+0.86	65th → 84th	2.2	15%	9.0 / 11.4
11	Wade Wagner '15	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	10/10	2.25	1.68	−0.57	87th → 77th	1.4	80%	10.9 / 8.6
12	Tyler Fleig '15	Portsmouth High School RI	10/10	1.73	1.76	+0.03	79th → 79th	0.0	71%	11.1 / 9.9
13	Michael Munger '16	Rumson-Fair Haven	10/10	1.86	1.73	−0.13	81st → 79th	0.1	83%	11.7 / 9.6
14	Eric Roos '15	Atlee High School	10/10	1.02	1.59	+0.57	59th → 75th	1.1	52%	12.1 / 11.9
15	R J Porter '15	Loyola Academy	10/10	2.20	1.46	−0.74	86th → 72nd	2.6	92%	12.6 / 8.7
16	Preston Duclos '15	Bishop Stang High	10/10	1.76	0.54	−1.21	79th → 40th	6.7	97%	14.7 / 10.0
17	Andrew Kraus '16	Holy Ghost Prep	10/10	1.13^u	0.44	−0.69	61st → 35th	1.6	94%	15.2 / 11.4
18	Robert Gruskos '16	Shore Regional	10/10	1.32	-0.51	−1.83	67th → 11th	8.9	99%	16.6 / 11.0

Conditions — 11/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 84% · Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.2 kn

avg · max 5.0 kn

Gusts to 11.3 kn

From NW (309°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1012.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Sehome — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Sehome in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sehome by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Sehome, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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