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Fort Monroe Scrimmage II

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 21 11 32
2 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 4 33 37
3 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 19 25 44
4 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 2 27 20 47
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 1 19 29 48
6 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 20 29 49
7 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 23 31 54
8 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 25 32 57
9 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 34 26 60
10 York High School York High School Varsity 46 15 61
11 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 38 25 63
12 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 36 36 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 1 1 1 4
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 1 4 6 3 6 19
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 9 4 2 4 19
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2 2 11 5 20 Jared Cronin '17
Alex Kitay '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 5 5 8 3 21
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 6 10 5 2 23 David Pellei '18
Maddy O'Connell '20
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 3 3 9 10 25
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 2 7 7 4 9 27
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 8 9 6 11 34
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 10 8 10 8 36 David Michael Jennings '14
David Michael Jennings '14
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 12 12 7 7 38 Rachael Kilgore '14
Rachel Kilgore '14
York High School York High School Varsity 11 11 12 12 46 Ben Clarke '16
Ben Clarke '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 6 1 3 11
York High School York High School Varsity 2 2 10 1 15 Ben Clarke '16
Ben Clarke '16
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 2 5 5 3 7 20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 4 4 8 9 25 Rachael Kilgore '14
Rachel Kilgore '14
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 11 8 2 4 25
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 12 9 2 26
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 1 8 9 6 6 29
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 12 1 5 11 29 Jared Cronin '17
Alex Kitay '19
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 6 3 12 10 31 David Pellei '18
Maddy O'Connell '20
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 9 11 7 5 32
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 10 7 4 12 33
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 7 10 11 8 36 David Michael Jennings '14
David Michael Jennings '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity5555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity6666
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity7777
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 18888
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 29999
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs10101010
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity11111111
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity12121212
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders13131313
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield14141414
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity15151515
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity16161616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity5555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity6666
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity7777
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 18888
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 29999
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs10101010
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity11111111
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity12121212
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders13131313
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield14141414
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity15151515
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity16161616

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1013.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−1.12 ± 0.71)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →