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ISSA Singlehanded Champs - Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Nic Baird '15 4 7 1 3 1 1 1 4 3 2 27
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols William Marshall '15 7 8 4 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 39
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Scott Rasmussen '16 16 5 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 4 43
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Henry Marshall '17 8 DSQ 5 1 3 4 2 1 5 5 53
The Urban School The Urban School Lawson Willard '15 1 11 6 4 6 7 5 6 6 15 67
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 2 1 3 10 8 9 13 8 11 9 74
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Alexander Hanna '15 3 4 11 7 7 8 8 10 8 11 77
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Belle Loosbrock '15 5 3 12 9 5 10 12 5 9 7 77
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Jeremy Cienfuegos '16 11 DSQ 10 6 10 5 6 14 2 3 86
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Michael Sabourin '16 6 6 7 14 13 15 10 9 17 10 107
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jack Bitney '15 18 15 16 8 11 6 7 12 10 6 109
Coronado Islanders Coronado Islanders D'Amy Steward '16 13 9 14 11 9 11 9 15 15 12 118
Kinkaid High School Kinkaid High School Lenox Butcher '16 9 13 9 16 16 16 15 7 13 8 122
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Gray Kiger '16 14 2 8 15 DNF DNF 17 11 7 13 125
Severn School Severn School Connor Bayless '17 12 12 13 13 14 12 11 13 14 16 130
Interlake High School Interlake High School Ellie Ungar '15 17 14 15 12 12 13 14 16 12 14 139
St. George's School St. George's School Collin Alexander '16 10 16 18 18 15 14 16 17 16 17 157
Toms River North Toms River North Sean Crabb '16 15 10 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 165

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nic Baird '15Shorecrest Preparatory School10/103.055.08+2.0499th → 99th9.61%2.7 / 7.7
2William Marshall '15BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Varsity 210/102.654.36+1.7294th → 99th7.83%3.9 / 8.8
3Scott Rasmussen '16Bishop Verot High School10/102.883.87+1.0097th → 99th2.83%4.3 / 8.2
4Henry Marshall '17BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Varsity 110/103.324.43+1.1199th → 99th3.222%5.3 / 7.0
5Lawson Willard '15The Urban School10/102.513.17+0.6792nd → 99th1.520%6.7 / 9.2
6Sophia Reineke '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School10/102.963.03+0.0698th → 98th0.043%7.4 / 8.0
7Alexander Hanna '15Poquoson High School10/102.673.07+0.4194th → 99th0.637%7.7 / 8.8
7Belle Loosbrock '15Minnetonka High School Skippers 210/102.543.05+0.5192nd → 99th0.933%7.7 / 9.1
9Jeremy Cienfuegos '16Point Loma High School10/102.133.03+0.9184th → 98th2.432%8.6 / 10.1
10Michael Sabourin '16Newport Harbor High School10/102.492.07−0.4292nd → 84th0.770%10.7 / 9.3
11Jack Bitney '15Minnetonka High School Skippers 110/102.511.86−0.6592nd → 81st1.774%10.9 / 9.2
12D'Amy Steward '16Coronado Islanders10/100.642.19+1.5444th → 86th7.220%11.8 / 13.7
13Lenox Butcher '16Kinkaid High School10/102.101.75−0.3684th → 79th0.580%12.2 / 10.3
14Gray Kiger '16Norfolk Academy10/102.282.08−0.2088th → 84th0.182%12.5 / 9.9
15Connor Bayless '17Severn School10/102.271.85−0.4388th → 81st0.892%13.0 / 9.8
16Ellie Ungar '15Interlake High School10/102.131.62−0.5184th → 76th1.295%13.9 / 10.3
17Collin Alexander '16St. George's School10/102.170.52−1.6585th → 39th11.299%15.7 / 10.0
18Sean Crabb '16Toms River North10/101.56-0.21−1.7874th → 16th8.699%16.5 / 11.7

Conditions — 11/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.0 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From NW (309°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1012.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Sehome — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Sehome in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sehome by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Sehome, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →