NJISA Fall Fleet Series 2

HostToms River South
Date10/01/2014
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Colts 1	Colts 1	15	7	22
2	Mariners	Mariners	16	14	30
3	Bulldogs	Bulldogs	12	24	36
4	Griffins 1	Griffins 1	26	10	36
5	Indians 1	Indians 1	21	16	37
6	Rams 2	Rams 2	26	16	42
7	Rams 1	Rams 1	14	29	43
8	Indians 2	Indians 2	27	22	49
9	Colts 2	Colts 2	37	12	49
10	Shore Regional	Shore Regional	13	41	54
11	Griffins 2	Griffins 2	22	33	55
12	Hermits	Hermits	26	34	60
13	Eagles	Eagles	41	19	60
14	Bucs	Bucs	23	46	69
15	Panthers	Panthers	46	39	85
16	Caseys	Caseys	43	46	89

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT
Bulldogs	Bulldogs	6	2	4	12
Shore Regional	Shore Regional	8	3	2	13
Rams 1	Rams 1	1	5	8	14
Colts 1	Colts 1	13	1	1	15
Mariners	Mariners	4	6	6	16
Indians 1	Indians 1	2	12	7	21
Griffins 2	Griffins 2	3	8	11	22
Bucs	Bucs	7	7	9	23
Rams 2	Rams 2	10	13	3	26
Griffins 1	Griffins 1	11	10	5	26
Hermits	Hermits	12	4	10	26
Indians 2	Indians 2	5	9	13	27
Colts 2	Colts 2	9	14	14	37
Eagles	Eagles	14	11	16	41
Caseys	Caseys	15	16	12	43
Panthers	Panthers	16	15	15	46

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT
Colts 1	Colts 1	5	1	1	7
Griffins 1	Griffins 1	2	6	2	10
Colts 2	Colts 2	1	8	3	12
Mariners	Mariners	3	2	9	14
Rams 2	Rams 2	4	5	7	16
Indians 1	Indians 1	7	4	5	16
Eagles	Eagles	6	9	4	19
Indians 2	Indians 2	9	3	10	22
Bulldogs	Bulldogs	8	10	6	24
Rams 1	Rams 1	14	7	8	29
Griffins 2	Griffins 2	10	12	11	33
Hermits	Hermits	11	11	12	34
Panthers	Panthers	12	14	13	39
Shore Regional	Shore Regional	13	13	15	41
Bucs	Bucs	15	15	16	46
Caseys	Caseys	16	16	14	46

Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Eagles Eagles	16	16	16
Colts 1 Colts 1	15	15	15
Colts 2 Colts 2	14	14	14
Griffins 1 Griffins 1	13	13	13
Griffins 2 Griffins 2	12	12	12
Panthers Panthers	11	11	11
Caseys Caseys	10	10	10
Bucs Bucs	9	9	9
Bulldogs Bulldogs	8	8	8
Shore Regional Shore Regional	7	7	7
Rams 1 Rams 1	6	6	6
Rams 2 Rams 2	5	5	5
Hermits Hermits	4	4	4
Mariners Mariners	3	3	3
Indians 1 Indians 1	2	2	2
Indians 2 Indians 2	1	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Eagles Eagles	16	16	16
Colts 1 Colts 1	15	15	15
Colts 2 Colts 2	14	14	14
Griffins 1 Griffins 1	13	13	13
Griffins 2 Griffins 2	12	12	12
Panthers Panthers	11	11	11
Caseys Caseys	10	10	10
Bucs Bucs	9	9	9
Bulldogs Bulldogs	8	8	8
Shore Regional Shore Regional	7	7	7
Rams 1 Rams 1	6	6	6
Rams 2 Rams 2	5	5	5
Hermits Hermits	4	4	4
Mariners Mariners	3	3	3
Indians 1 Indians 1	2	2	2
Indians 2 Indians 2	1	1	1

Conditions — 10/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.0 kn

avg · max 8.9 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From NNE (24°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine3.8 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Toms River South — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Toms River South in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River South by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Toms River South, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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