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NWISA Singlehanded Champs - Radial

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Interlake High School Interlake High School Ellie Ungar '15 23
2 Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 34
3 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Anna Held '16 37
4 The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 37
5 Wilsonville High School Wilsonville High School Alexa Ripple '16 44
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Caelan Juckniess '16 63
7 Garfield High School Garfield High School Analucia Clarkson '18 67
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Jeffrey Werner '16 69
9 Orcas High School Orcas High School Maggie Toombs '18 70
10 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Matthew Reynolds '16 72
11 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Nathan Grundmeier '19 73
12 Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School John Ped '16 83
13 Franklin High School Franklin High School Thomas Hope '16 94
14 Wilson High School Wilson High School Annabelle 'Belle' Lemoine '15 100
15 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Niko Twilla '18 105
16 Sehome High School Sehome High School Shea Walker '16 118
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
Interlake High School Interlake High School Ellie Ungar '15 1 4 1 2 1 2 2 10 23
Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 15 5 2 1 5 1 4 1 34
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Anna Held '16 2 1 4 6 7 4 7 6 37
The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 11 2 3 7 4 3 3 4 37
Wilsonville High School Wilsonville High School Alexa Ripple '16 4 6 6 3 2 7 1 15 44
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Caelan Juckniess '16 OCS 11 5 4 3 5 6 12 63
Garfield High School Garfield High School Analucia Clarkson '18 5 3 7 12 10 11 10 9 67
Sehome High School Sehome High School Jeffrey Werner '16 8 7 10 11 6 9 5 13 69
Orcas High School Orcas High School Maggie Toombs '18 3 13 9 5 11 13 9 7 70
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Matthew Reynolds '16 9 10 11 8 12 8 12 2 72
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Nathan Grundmeier '19 7 8 8 14 8 6 11 11 73
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School John Ped '16 12 12 12 10 14 12 8 3 83
Franklin High School Franklin High School Thomas Hope '16 6 14 13 15 15 10 13 8 94
Wilson High School Wilson High School Annabelle 'Belle' Lemoine '15 14 15 14 13 9 14 16 5 100
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Niko Twilla '18 13 9 15 9 16 15 14 14 105
Sehome High School Sehome High School Shea Walker '16 10 16 16 16 13 16 15 16 118

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  16 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Ellie Ungar '15Interlake High School8/82.133.58+1.4584th → 99th4.32%2.9 / 6.4
2Grant Gridley '18Oregon City High School8/81.582.32+0.7575th → 89th1.14%4.2 / 7.6
3Anna Held '16Bainbridge High School Spartans 18/81.14u2.84+1.7162nd → 96th6.35%4.6 / 8.6
3Talia Toland '17The Overlake School8/82.352.62+0.2889th → 94th0.228%4.6 / 5.9
5Alexa Ripple '16Wilsonville High School8/81.232.07+0.8365th → 84th1.612%5.5 / 8.5
6Caelan Juckniess '16Bainbridge High School Spartans 28/81.551.99+0.4474th → 83rd0.555%7.9 / 7.8
7Analucia Clarkson '18Garfield High School8/81.831.49−0.3481st → 72nd0.473%8.4 / 7.0
8Jeffrey Werner '16Sehome High School Mariners 18/81.691.47−0.2277th → 72nd0.271%8.6 / 7.4
9Maggie Toombs '18Orcas High School8/80.651.41+0.7644th → 70th1.635%8.8 / 9.8
10Matthew Reynolds '16Lincoln High School - Portland, OR8/81.651.33−0.3276th → 67th0.371%9.0 / 7.6
11Nathan Grundmeier '19North Kitsap High School8/8-0.871.46+2.345th → 72nd11.25%9.1 / 12.8
12John Ped '16Oregon Episcopal School8/81.320.98−0.3467th → 57th0.480%10.4 / 8.3
13Thomas Hope '16Franklin High School8/81.530.32−1.2174th → 31st5.595%11.8 / 7.8
14Annabelle 'Belle' Lemoine '15Wilson High School8/80.90-0.01−0.9154th → 21st2.692%12.5 / 9.2
15Niko Twilla '18Central Kitsap High School8/80.400.02−0.3834th → 22nd0.488%13.1 / 10.3
16Shea Walker '16Sehome High School Mariners 28/80.00-1.40−1.4021st → 1st3.596%14.8 / 11.2

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1021.7 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.6 kn
avg  ·  max 2.3 kn
Gusts to 7.0 kn
From SSW (192°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1021.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Sehome — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Sehome in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sehome by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Sehome, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →