PCISA #1 Sea Otter Regatta - Silver

HostMonterey Peninsula Yacht Club
Date10/11/2014
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Archie Williams High School	Varsity	29	19	48
2	Lightning	Lightning	48	12	60
3	Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	50	52	102
4	Alameda High School	JV	46	61	107
5	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	52	62	114
6	The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	52	73	125
7	Chargers	Chargers	65	62	127
8	Varsity	Varsity	44	87	131
9	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	82	51	133
10	Varsity	Varsity	34	109	143
11	Alameda High School	Varsity	104	44	148
12	Redwood High School	Giants	108	56	164
13	Varsity	Varsity	118	52	170
14	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	56	121	177
15	Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	106	74	180
16	Varsity	Varsity	83	104	187
17	Sea Kings	Sea Kings	97	94	191
18	Berkeley High School	Varsity	49	151	200
19	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	119	90	209
20	Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	68	146	214
21	Varsity	Varsity	132	97	229
22	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	145	84	229
23	Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	114	119	233
24	Woodside High School	Wildcat	109	126	235
25	Monarchs	Monarchs	144	105	249
26	Varsity	Varsity	147	116	263
27	Campolindo High School	Cougars	147	139	286
28	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	149	144	293
29	Berkeley High School	JV	163	167	330
30	Archie Williams High School	JV	156	189	345
31	JV	JV	177	174	351

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	11	4	6	1	4	3	29	Dylan Meade '16 Cameron Gibson '15
Varsity	Varsity	4	5	3	9	6	7	34
Varsity	Varsity	16	3	11	8	2	4	44
Alameda High School	JV	14	2	1	2	15	12	46	Aitor Iriso '17 Noelle Siriot '16
Lightning	Lightning	3	6	18	3	17	1	48
Berkeley High School	Varsity	9	10	2	14	3	11	49	Bear Lundegaard '15 Stuart Myers '17
Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	13	8	7	4	10	8	50	Kyle Blair '17 Hailey Thompson '18
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	1	24	4	5	5	13	52	Nicolai Sponholtz '15 [1-6] Lena Fisher '18 [1-2, 5-6] Sara Correa '18 [3-4]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	7	1	5	17	7	15	52	Spencer Paulsen '16 Shaw Lenox '16
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	10	12	9	15	8	2	56	Pacal Hines '16 Nolwenn Menard '19
Chargers	Chargers	6	13	14	13	9	10	65
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	15	15	10	12	11	5	68	Nicklas Gardner '15 Liam Orozco '19
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	5	11	12	21	16	17	82	Emiliano Bache '16 Claire Mohun '15
Varsity	Varsity	12	17	8	11	13	22	83
Sea Kings	Sea Kings	2	16	DSQ	6	23	18	97
Alameda High School	Varsity	DSQ	18	21	26	1	6	104	Drake Hayes '17 Caila Devlin '17
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	8	19	19	27	12	21	106	Victoria Oldham '16 Ellery Island '19
Redwood High School	Giants	19	7	17	25	24	16	108	Michael Brandon '16 [1-6] Lennon Lott '15 [1-4] Kali Gibbs '18 [5-6]
Woodside High School	Wildcat	26	21	24	10	14	14	109	Patrick Wilkinson '16 [1-6] Sophia Mcdevitt '17 [1-2, 5-6] Sydney Ashworth '17 [3-4]
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	18	23	20	16	18	19	114	Sam Reynolds '17 Brett Baron '16
Varsity	Varsity	25	9	23	22	19	20	118
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	24	26	16	19	25	9	119	Elisabeth Rowedder '16 [1-4] Devon Stoeber '17 [5-6] Mary Overton '17 [1-2] Devon Stoeber '17 [3-4] Sophie Ellison '15 [5-6]
Varsity	Varsity	DSQ	22	13	7	28	30	132
Monarchs	Monarchs	21	25	22	24	29	23	144
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	DSQ	27	15	18	26	27	145	Michael Lively '18 Thomas Laskarzewski '18
Campolindo High School	Cougars	23	20	26	23	27	28	147	Alex Wilson '15 Daniel Warner '18
Varsity	Varsity	DSQ	14	DSQ	20	20	29	147
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	20	29	27	28	21	24	149	Peter Werner '17 [1-6] Kat Hipkins '17 [1-2, 5-6] Jasper Trouerbach '16 [3-4]
Archie Williams High School	JV	17	28	DSQ	DSQ	22	25	156	Antonio Mejia '16 Skylar Richards '18
Berkeley High School	JV	22	30	25	29	31	26	163	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Max Rodman '18
JV	JV	27	31	28	30	30	31	177

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Lightning	Lightning	1	5	2	2	1	1	12
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	11	2	1	1	2	2	19	Sam Barton '17 Delaney Hunt '17
Alameda High School	Varsity	10	4	9	3	13	5	44	Miles Orozco '16 No Show
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	7	6	5	13	7	13	51	Michael Tellini '17 Michael Kastner '16
Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	5	8	8	8	6	17	52	Ryan Schack '17 Kyle Cater '16
Varsity	Varsity	6	13	13	6	8	6	52
Redwood High School	Giants	12	1	10	14	3	16	56	Tommy Young '18 [1-6] Kali Gibbs '18 [1-4] Lennon Lott '15 [5-6]
Alameda High School	JV	25	3	12	9	9	3	61	Natalie Corkhill '15 Dimitri Stetsenko '16
Chargers	Chargers	4	9	20	10	15	4	62
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	8	7	3	15	14	15	62	Sumner Strumph '17 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Treais '17 [3-4] William Hale '18 [1-2, 5-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	18	17	7	4	18	9	73	Sebastian Sponholtz '16 [1-4] Alexander Dubois '15 [5-6] Leo Findlay '16 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Christey '18 [3-4]
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	15	20	4	12	11	12	74	Tj Mahoney '19 Meghan Oldham '18
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	13	22	14	16	12	7	84	John Dilella '18 Thomas Zenner '19
Varsity	Varsity	24	14	15	7	17	10	87
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	3	18	19	23	19	8	90	Andy Strike '16 Kate Hofele '17
Sea Kings	Sea Kings	21	29	11	5	5	23	94
Varsity	Varsity	9	19	21	17	10	21	97
Varsity	Varsity	16	11	18	11	28	20	104
Monarchs	Monarchs	14	25	6	19	22	19	105
Varsity	Varsity	19	16	17	21	4	DSQ	109
Varsity	Varsity	17	21	16	18	26	18	116
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	20	10	25	26	24	14	119	Emma Reynolds '16 Kiera Cullen '17
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	2	27	23	22	21	26	121	Tigran Demurjan '17 [1-6] Armand Dechant '17 [1-2, 5-6] Elliot Samaan '17 [3-4]
Woodside High School	Wildcat	23	23	22	27	20	11	126	Joseph Politi '18 [1-2, 5-6] Judith Politi '21 [3-4] Anneka Petersen '18 [1-2, 5-6] Parker Russell '18 [3-4]
Campolindo High School	Cougars	26	15	26	24	23	25	139	Niko Vo '18 [1-4] Santiago Calderon '15 [5-6] Kristen Zarembinski '19 [1-4]
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	22	24	RDG	20	25	29	144	Derek Makovich '16 [1-4] Grant Hallee '15 [5-6] Nathan Nakahara '16 [1-2] Jonathan Fisher '17 [3-6]
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	28	12	27	25	27	27	146	Eneko Iriso '19 Sam Showalter '18
Berkeley High School	Varsity	27	26	28	DNS	16	22	151	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Oscar Thompson '18
Berkeley High School	JV	30	28	24	28	29	28	167	James Guiraud '15 Liam Lautze '16
JV	JV	29	30	30	29	DNF	24	174
Archie Williams High School	JV	DNF	DNS	29	DNS	DNS	DNS	189	Stella Greenwood '18 Noelle Scheer '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Alameda High School JV	34	34	36	36	38	38
Alameda High School Varsity	33	33	35	35	37	37
Berkeley High School JV	36	36	38	38	40	40
Berkeley High School Varsity	35	35	37	37	39	39
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	37	37	39	39	41	41
Campolindo High School Cougars	38	38	40	40	42	42
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	39	39	41	41	43	43
Chargers Chargers	40	40	42	42	44	44
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars	41	41	43	43	45	45
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	42	42	44	44	46	46
Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins	43	43	45	45	47	47
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity	44	44	46	46	48	48
Monarchs Monarchs	45	45	47	47	49	49
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	46	46	48	48	50	50
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA Varsity	47	47	49	49	51	51
Varsity Varsity	48	48	50	50	52	52
Sea Kings Sea Kings	49	49	51	51	53	53
Varsity Varsity	51	51	53	53	55	55
Varsity Varsity	50	50	52	52	54	54
Redwood High School Giants	52	52	54	54	56	56
Lightning Lightning	53	53	55	55	57	57
Archie Williams High School JV	55	55	57	57	59	59
Archie Williams High School Varsity	54	54	56	56	58	58
Varsity Varsity	56	56	58	58	60	60
JV JV	58	58	60	60	62	62
Varsity Varsity	57	57	59	59	61	61
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity	59	59	61	61	63	63
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	60	60	62	62	33	33
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	61	61	63	63	34	34
Varsity Varsity	62	62	33	33	35	35
Woodside High School Wildcat	63	63	34	34	36	36

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Alameda High School JV	35	35	37	37	39	39
Alameda High School Varsity	34	34	36	36	38	38
Berkeley High School JV	37	37	39	39	41	41
Berkeley High School Varsity	36	36	38	38	40	40
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	38	38	40	40	42	42
Campolindo High School Cougars	39	39	41	41	43	43
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	40	40	42	42	44	44
Chargers Chargers	41	41	43	43	45	45
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars	42	42	44	44	46	46
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	43	43	45	45	47	47
Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins	44	44	46	46	48	48
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity	45	45	47	47	49	49
Monarchs Monarchs	46	46	48	48	50	50
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	47	47	49	49	51	51
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA Varsity	48	48	50	50	52	52
Varsity Varsity	49	49	51	51	53	53
Sea Kings Sea Kings	50	50	52	52	54	54
Varsity Varsity	52	52	54	54	56	56
Varsity Varsity	51	51	53	53	55	55
Redwood High School Giants	53	53	55	55	57	57
Lightning Lightning	54	54	56	56	58	58
Archie Williams High School JV	56	56	58	58	60	60
Archie Williams High School Varsity	55	55	57	57	59	59
Varsity Varsity	57	57	59	59	61	61
JV JV	59	59	61	61	63	63
Varsity Varsity	58	58	60	60	62	62
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity	60	60	62	62	33	33
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	61	61	63	63	34	34
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	62	62	33	33	35	35
Varsity Varsity	63	63	34	34	36	36
Woodside High School Wildcat	33	33	35	35	37	37

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Aitor Iriso '17	Noelle Siriot '16
JV	Natalie Corkhill '15	Dimitri Stetsenko '16
Alameda High School	Drake Hayes '17	Caila Devlin '17
Varsity	Miles Orozco '16	No Show
Archie Williams High School	Antonio Mejia '16	Skylar Richards '18
JV	Stella Greenwood '18	Noelle Scheer '18
Archie Williams High School	Dylan Meade '16	Cameron Gibson '15
Varsity	Sam Barton '17	Delaney Hunt '17
Berkeley High School	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Max Rodman '18
JV	James Guiraud '15	Liam Lautze '16
Berkeley High School	Bear Lundegaard '15	Stuart Myers '17
Varsity	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Oscar Thompson '18
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Nicklas Gardner '15	Liam Orozco '19
Varsity	Eneko Iriso '19	Sam Showalter '18
Campolindo High School	Alex Wilson '15	Daniel Warner '18
Cougars	Niko Vo '18 [1-4] Santiago Calderon '15 [5-6]	Kristen Zarembinski '19 [1-4]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Emiliano Bache '16	Claire Mohun '15
Cubs	Michael Tellini '17	Michael Kastner '16
Half Moon Bay High School	Sam Reynolds '17	Brett Baron '16
Cougars	Emma Reynolds '16	Kiera Cullen '17
Long Beach Wilson High School	Kyle Blair '17	Hailey Thompson '18
Bruins	Ryan Schack '17	Kyle Cater '16
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Pacal Hines '16	Nolwenn Menard '19
Varsity	Tigran Demurjan '17 [1-6]	Armand Dechant '17 [1-2, 5-6] Elliot Samaan '17 [3-4]
Monte Vista High School	Michael Lively '18	Thomas Laskarzewski '18
Mustangs	John Dilella '18	Thomas Zenner '19
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Victoria Oldham '16	Ellery Island '19
Varsity	Tj Mahoney '19	Meghan Oldham '18
Redwood High School	Michael Brandon '16 [1-6]	Lennon Lott '15 [1-4] Kali Gibbs '18 [5-6]
Giants	Tommy Young '18 [1-6]	Kali Gibbs '18 [1-4] Lennon Lott '15 [5-6]
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Peter Werner '17 [1-6]	Kat Hipkins '17 [1-2, 5-6] Jasper Trouerbach '16 [3-4]
Varsity	Derek Makovich '16 [1-4] Grant Hallee '15 [5-6]	Nathan Nakahara '16 [1-2] Jonathan Fisher '17 [3-6]
Tamalpais High School	Elisabeth Rowedder '16 [1-4] Devon Stoeber '17 [5-6]	Mary Overton '17 [1-2] Devon Stoeber '17 [3-4] Sophie Ellison '15 [5-6]
Red Tailed Hawks	Andy Strike '16	Kate Hofele '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Spencer Paulsen '16	Shaw Lenox '16
Breakers	Sumner Strumph '17 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Treais '17 [3-4]	William Hale '18 [1-2, 5-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Nicolai Sponholtz '15 [1-6]	Lena Fisher '18 [1-2, 5-6] Sara Correa '18 [3-4]
Varsity	Sebastian Sponholtz '16 [1-4] Alexander Dubois '15 [5-6]	Leo Findlay '16 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Christey '18 [3-4]
Woodside High School	Patrick Wilkinson '16 [1-6]	Sophia Mcdevitt '17 [1-2, 5-6] Sydney Ashworth '17 [3-4]
Wildcat	Joseph Politi '18 [1-2, 5-6] Judith Politi '21 [3-4]	Anneka Petersen '18 [1-2, 5-6] Parker Russell '18 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/11/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.5 kn

avg · max 5.9 kn

Gusts to 14.2 kn

From WNW (287°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1016.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn · NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Monterey Peninsula Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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