Raritan Bay Fall Fleet Race 2014

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 18 10 28
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 7 22 29
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 16 13 29
4 Princeton High School Princeton High School Little Tigers 25 28 53
5 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 39 31 70
6 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 43 37 80
7 Varsity Varsity Varsity 36 49 85
8 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 45 43 88
9 Kent Place School Kent Place School Dragons 41 48 89
10 Hilltoppers Hilltoppers Hilltoppers 62 53 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 Emily Haig '17
Rachel Lange '17
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 3 3 2 4 2 2 16 Lauren Beattie '15
Paul Reiff '17
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 1 2 4 2 6 3 18 No Show [1-4]
Elizabeth Fox '15 [5-6]
Tomas Rios '18 [1-4]
Harrison Bailey '18 [5-6]
Princeton High School Princeton High School Little Tigers 5 4 3 5 3 5 25 Nathan Drezner '16
Sophie Corrodi '16
Varsity Varsity Varsity 4 6 5 3 9 9 36
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 7 5 8 7 4 8 39 Jack Scott '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Marcello Sgroi '16 [3-4]
Connor Demcsak '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Phil O'Brien '18 [3-4]
Kent Place School Kent Place School Dragons 6 8 7 8 5 7 41 Laura Whelan '16
Camille Brzechffa '16
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 8 9 9 6 7 4 43 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 9 7 6 9 8 6 45 Bryan Cardenas '15 [1-4]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [5-6]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [1-4]
Bryan Cardenas '15 [5-6]
Hilltoppers Hilltoppers Hilltoppers 10 10 10 10 DNS DNS 62
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 2 3 1 1 2 1 10 Harrison Bailey '18 [1-6]
Elizabeth Fox '15 [1-4]
Tomas Rios '18 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 13 Michael Scales '16
Sam Westby '16
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 4 1 5 3 4 5 22 Jake Ellis '15
Emily Micciche '17
Princeton High School Princeton High School Little Tigers 1 4 2 5 7 9 28 Ashley Dart '17
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 7 7 4 4 6 3 31 Francesco Sgroi '16
Karl Pfeil '18
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 6 9 7 6 5 4 37 Grace Vega '16 [1-4]
Michael Rodriquez '16 [5-6]
Michael Rodriquez '16 [1-4]
Grace Vega '16 [5-6]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 8 5 6 8 9 7 43 Victoria Tang '15 [1-4]
Grace Vega '16 [5-6]
Grace Vega '16 [1-4]
Victoria Tang '15 [5-6]
Kent Place School Kent Place School Dragons DNS DNS 8 7 3 8 48 Tori Blundin '18
Maddy Ryon '15
Varsity Varsity Varsity 9 8 9 9 8 6 49
Hilltoppers Hilltoppers Hilltoppers 5 6 10 10 DNS DNS 53
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
VarsityVarsity Varsity112233
Kent Place SchoolKent Place School Dragons223344
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 1334455
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 2445566
Princeton High SchoolPrinceton High School Little Tigers556677
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs667788
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1778899
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 288991010
HilltoppersHilltoppers Hilltoppers99101011
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils10101122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
VarsityVarsity Varsity112233
Kent Place SchoolKent Place School Dragons223344
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 1334455
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 2445566
Princeton High SchoolPrinceton High School Little Tigers556677
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs667788
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1778899
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 288991010
HilltoppersHilltoppers Hilltoppers99101011
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils10101122
School / Team SkipperCrew
Kent Place School Kent Place School Laura Whelan '16 Camille Brzechffa '16
Dragons Tori Blundin '18 Maddy Ryon '15
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Bryan Cardenas '15 [1-4]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [5-6]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [1-4]
Bryan Cardenas '15 [5-6]
Panthers 1 Victoria Tang '15 [1-4]
Grace Vega '16 [5-6]
Grace Vega '16 [1-4]
Victoria Tang '15 [5-6]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Sabrina Gonzalez '17 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Panthers 2 Grace Vega '16 [1-4]
Michael Rodriquez '16 [5-6]
Michael Rodriquez '16 [1-4]
Grace Vega '16 [5-6]
Princeton High School Princeton High School Nathan Drezner '16 Sophie Corrodi '16
Little Tigers Ashley Dart '17
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Jack Scott '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Marcello Sgroi '16 [3-4]
Connor Demcsak '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Phil O'Brien '18 [3-4]
Bulldogs Francesco Sgroi '16 Karl Pfeil '18
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Emily Haig '17 Rachel Lange '17
Rams 1 Jake Ellis '15 Emily Micciche '17
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Lauren Beattie '15 Paul Reiff '17
Rams 2 Michael Scales '16 Sam Westby '16
Westfield High School Westfield High School No Show [1-4]
Elizabeth Fox '15 [5-6]
Tomas Rios '18 [1-4]
Harrison Bailey '18 [5-6]
Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18 [1-6] Elizabeth Fox '15 [1-4]
Tomas Rios '18 [5-6]

Conditions — 09/27/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1022.6 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 10.7 kn
From NE (35°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1022.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →