SailFest 2014

HostToms River Yacht Club
Date09/06/2014
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Colts I 1	Colts I 1	35	19	54
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	34	43	77
3	Bulldogs	Bulldogs	45	33	78
4	Colts I 2	Colts I 2	59	23	82
5	Indians 1	Indians 1	21	63	84
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins I 1	53	50	103
7	Summit High School	Maroon 1	52	81	133
8	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	80	55	135
9	Varsity	Varsity	85	55	140
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins I 2	61	83	144
11	Bucs	Bucs	63	93	156
12	Little Tigers	Little Tigers	77	87	164
13	Indians 2	Indians 2	99	87	186
14	Summit High School	Maroon 2	102	89	191
15	Panthers 1	Panthers 1	108	117	225
16	Panthers 2	Panthers 2	119	111	230

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Indians 1	Indians 1	1	3	4	1	1	4	5	2	21
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	2	6	2	2	3	1	1	DSQ	34	Emily Haig '17 Rachel Lang '17
Colts I 1	Colts I 1	11	2	3	3	9	3	3	1	35
Bulldogs	Bulldogs	6	11	1	4	6	5	8	4	45
Summit High School	Maroon 1	9	7	5	6	2	10	2	11	52	Margot Murray '17 [1-8] Kk Newsham '15 [1-2, 5-6] Grace Totman '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins I 1	4	1	15	9	10	2	9	3	53	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Colts I 2	Colts I 2	3	5	9	11	11	6	4	10	59
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins I 2	14	4	11	5	7	8	6	6	61
Bucs	Bucs	5	8	6	8	4	7	OCS	8	63
Little Tigers	Little Tigers	8	OCS	8	7	8	13	7	9	77
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	16	10	13	10	5	9	10	7	80	Lauren Beattie '15
Varsity	Varsity	10	12	7	12	14	14	11	5	85
Indians 2	Indians 2	7	14	12	14	12	12	13	15	99
Summit High School	Maroon 2	15	13	10	15	13	11	12	13	102	Mark Freidin '16 [1-8] Anna Tselevich '15 [1-2, 5-6] Gal Behiri '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Panthers 1	Panthers 1	13	9	14	13	15	15	OCS	12	108
Panthers 2	Panthers 2	12	15	16	16	16	16	14	14	119

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Colts I 1	Colts I 1	1	3	2	1	1	8	1	2	19
Colts I 2	Colts I 2	3	2	7	2	2	1	2	4	23
Bulldogs	Bulldogs	9	1	3	4	4	2	4	6	33
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	5	4	4	3	7	14	3	3	43	Jake Ellis '15 Sam Westby '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins I 1	7	7	8	6	3	3	8	8	50	Caroline Martocci '18 Camryn Kennedy '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	6	9	6	11	9	7	6	1	55	Michael Scales '16
Varsity	Varsity	8	15	5	5	5	5	5	7	55
Indians 1	Indians 1	4	12	1	7	11	10	9	9	63
Summit High School	Maroon 1	11	14	9	8	10	4	11	14	81	Kieran Sweeney '15 [1-8] Mike Freidin '15 [1-2, 5-6] Nicole Owens '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins I 2	13	11	11	12	8	11	7	10	83
Little Tigers	Little Tigers	2	13	12	10	15	13	OCS	5	87
Indians 2	Indians 2	15	6	13	9	6	12	13	13	87
Summit High School	Maroon 2	10	8	15	15	14	6	10	11	89	Sarah Elia '16 [1-2, 5-6] Shannon Groskoph '17 [3-4, 7-8] Danny Kane '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Bucs	Bucs	16	5	14	13	12	9	12	12	93
Panthers 2	Panthers 2	14	10	10	14	16	16	15	16	111
Panthers 1	Panthers 1	12	16	16	16	13	15	14	15	117

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Colts I 1 Colts I 1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Colts I 2 Colts I 2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins I 1	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins I 2	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Panthers 1 Panthers 1	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Panthers 2 Panthers 2	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Little Tigers Little Tigers	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Bucs Bucs	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Bulldogs Bulldogs	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Summit High School Maroon 1	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15
Summit High School Maroon 2	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Varsity Varsity	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1
Indians 1 Indians 1	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Indians 2 Indians 2	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Colts I 1 Colts I 1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Colts I 2 Colts I 2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins I 1	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins I 2	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Panthers 1 Panthers 1	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Panthers 2 Panthers 2	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Little Tigers Little Tigers	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Bucs Bucs	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Bulldogs Bulldogs	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Summit High School Maroon 1	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15
Summit High School Maroon 2	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Varsity Varsity	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1
Indians 1 Indians 1	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Indians 2 Indians 2	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Griffins I 1	Caroline Martocci '18	Camryn Kennedy '17
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Rachel Lang '17
Rams 1	Jake Ellis '15	Sam Westby '16
Southern Regional High School	Lauren Beattie '15
Rams 2	Michael Scales '16
Summit High School	Margot Murray '17 [1-8]	Kk Newsham '15 [1-2, 5-6] Grace Totman '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Maroon 1	Kieran Sweeney '15 [1-8]	Mike Freidin '15 [1-2, 5-6] Nicole Owens '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Summit High School	Mark Freidin '16 [1-8]	Anna Tselevich '15 [1-2, 5-6] Gal Behiri '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Maroon 2	Sarah Elia '16 [1-2, 5-6] Shannon Groskoph '17 [3-4, 7-8]	Danny Kane '16 [1-2, 5-6]

Conditions — 09/06/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

85°F

↑ 90°F ↓ 77°F

Feels like 91°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.9 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 23.9 kn

From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1012.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Toms River Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Toms River Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu