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SAISA Cressy Qualifier - Radial

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Nic Baird '15 63
2 Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Kaili Yap '19 65
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 120
4 North Fort Myers High North Fort Myers High Jack Grower '16 123
5 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Hannah Steadman '16 141
6 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Anna Weis '16 171
7 Gulf Coast High School Gulf Coast High School Jaedyn Procacci '20 181
8 Antilles School Antilles School Nicholas Gartner '15 187
9 A.W. Dreyfoos/ Suncoast Combined A.W. Dreyfoos/ Suncoast Combined John Hench '15 248
10 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Mack Fox '16 253
11 Wando Wando Cameron Gise '16 256
12 Antilles School Antilles School Sam Morrell '17 267
13 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 305
14 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Emmet Ward '16 306
15 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Cameron Grubb '16 311
16 Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 318
17 St. Stephen's Episcopal School St. Stephen's Episcopal School Sam Tobio '16 319
18 Antilles School Antilles School Daniel Petrovic '15 330
19 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 332
20 Antilles School Antilles School Paige Clark '16 350
21 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Chase Burwell '17 351
22 Pine View School Pine View School Louisa Nordstrom '16 353
23 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Max Gillette '16 370
24 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 375
25 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 385
26 Hilton Head Preparatory School Hilton Head Preparatory School Will Monts '16 419
27 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Katy Lounsbury '16 429
28 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Calli Lewis '17 459
29 Pine View School Pine View School Ciara Dorsay '17 466
30 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 473
31 Durham School of The Arts Durham School of The Arts G. Alex White '16 479
32 Pine View School Pine View School Isabella Lemole '16 530
33 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Ariel Casaretto '17 535
34 Wando Wando Carter Cameron '15 543
35 Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School Sydney Register '18 646
36 Naples High School Naples High School Andrew Douglas '19 666
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Nic Baird '15 2 1 5 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 7 18 1 5 7 3 1 63
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Kaili Yap '19 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 5 1 12 19 4 1 4 65
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 7 5 8 3 7 5 3 7 8 5 4 1 7 13 9 6 10 12 120
North Fort Myers High North Fort Myers High Jack Grower '16 3 3 1 2 3 3 5 3 3 4 3 6 2 16 27 27 9 3 123
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Hannah Steadman '16 12 10 4 14 9 6 8 17 9 7 5 3 11 7 7 3 7 2 141
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Anna Weis '16 6 6 11 7 6 4 6 12 4 6 12 14 20 25 12 8 4 8 171
Gulf Coast High School Gulf Coast High School Jaedyn Procacci '20 4 8 3 4 8 7 9 5 6 8 6 19 4 18 33 15 8 16 181
Antilles School Antilles School Nicholas Gartner '15 10 4 14 19 4 11 4 9 7 3 7 23 19 17 23 2 2 9 187
A.W. Dreyfoos/ Suncoast Combined A.W. Dreyfoos/ Suncoast Combined John Hench '15 5 7 6 6 5 9 7 4 5 9 19 21 15 32 21 33 27 17 248
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Mack Fox '16 15 11 10 20 13 12 11 19 14 18 10 9 14 11 16 17 12 21 253
Wando Wando Cameron Gise '16 14 13 15 12 27 18 15 20 13 12 18 4 13 9 8 21 5 19 256
Antilles School Antilles School Sam Morrell '17 11 12 7 15 21 10 12 6 12 13 23 18 26 23 10 9 28 11 267
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 16 22 17 21 14 14 17 15 17 16 17 20 3 22 4 16 25 29 305
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Emmet Ward '16 8 19 OCS 9 15 31 16 28 22 14 15 29 5 2 15 25 6 10 306
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Cameron Grubb '16 18 9 9 17 11 15 21 22 11 11 9 26 29 29 18 12 18 26 311
Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 23 20 18 24 32 21 25 29 15 DNF 13 8 8 5 6 5 16 13 318
St. Stephen's Episcopal School St. Stephen's Episcopal School Sam Tobio '16 17 16 12 11 12 16 14 14 21 17 20 15 28 20 28 23 20 15 319
Antilles School Antilles School Daniel Petrovic '15 9 14 25 32 10 19 10 18 10 10 8 24 30 15 26 10 30 30 330
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 24 25 20 29 20 29 19 8 16 15 11 16 9 10 3 20 31 27 332
Antilles School Antilles School Paige Clark '16 25 26 28 26 31 22 26 30 25 25 16 2 10 6 1 31 13 7 350
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Chase Burwell '17 19 24 19 8 18 8 13 13 23 22 14 30 16 30 24 18 32 20 351
Pine View School Pine View School Louisa Nordstrom '16 28 17 OCS 25 17 26 27 10 27 19 21 10 21 19 13 11 11 14 353
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Max Gillette '16 30 15 22 22 26 30 22 27 18 21 25 31 17 26 2 1 17 18 370
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 32 18 23 16 23 13 18 23 20 24 30 11 27 33 22 22 14 6 375
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Conner Correll '18 13 30 16 13 22 23 23 24 24 26 26 17 6 21 OCS 13 26 25 385
Hilton Head Preparatory School Hilton Head Preparatory School Will Monts '16 27 DNS 26 23 16 27 24 16 19 20 24 27 32 4 20 26 19 32 419
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Katy Lounsbury '16 21 28 29 27 29 20 29 26 28 23 22 13 23 8 11 30 29 33 429
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Calli Lewis '17 22 23 27 28 24 24 20 21 32 28 28 28 35 27 32 14 24 22 459
Pine View School Pine View School Ciara Dorsay '17 29 27 24 30 28 25 31 31 30 30 27 12 31 31 14 28 15 23 466
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 20 21 OCS 10 19 28 DNF 11 DNF DNF DNF 22 25 14 31 32 21 34 473
Durham School of The Arts Durham School of The Arts G. Alex White '16 26 OCS 13 18 25 17 28 25 26 27 31 25 24 28 30 34 34 31 479
Pine View School Pine View School Isabella Lemole '16 33 31 21 33 33 DNF DNF 32 31 29 32 33 22 24 17 24 33 28 530
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Ariel Casaretto '17 31 29 30 31 30 32 30 33 29 31 29 32 33 35 25 29 22 24 535
Wando Wando Carter Cameron '15 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 12 3 OCS 19 23 5 543
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School Sydney Register '18 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 34 34 29 35 35 35 646
Naples High School Naples High School Andrew Douglas '19 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 666

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  36 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nic Baird '15Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 118/182.934.86+1.9298th → 99th16.81%3.5 / 12.1
2Kaili Yap '19Bishop Verot High School18/180.304.75+4.4531st → 99th62.5<1%3.6 / 25.2
3Sophia Reineke '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 218/182.953.84+0.8998th → 99th4.75%6.7 / 11.9
4Jack Grower '16North Fort Myers High18/181.18u3.36+2.1865th → 99th21.8<1%6.8 / 20.9
5Hannah Steadman '16Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 218/182.233.59+1.3587th → 99th10.21%7.8 / 15.5
6Anna Weis '16St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 318/181.943.17+1.2382nd → 99th8.76%9.5 / 17.1
7Jaedyn Procacci '20Gulf Coast High School18/180.232.75+2.5228th → 95th26.2<1%10.1 / 25.5
8Nicholas Gartner '15Antilles School Hurricanes 118/182.042.94+0.9083rd → 98th5.010%10.4 / 16.6
9John Hench '15A.W. Dreyfoos/ Suncoast Combined18/181.16u2.14+0.9864th → 85th5.67%13.8 / 21.0
10Mack Fox '16St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 618/182.162.59+0.4385th → 93rd1.335%14.1 / 15.9
11Cameron Gise '16Wando Varsity 218/182.202.48+0.2886th → 92nd0.640%14.2 / 15.7
12Sam Morrell '17Antilles School Hurricanes 318/182.072.37+0.3184th → 89th0.739%14.8 / 16.4
13Kyle Dochoda '17Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 318/181.882.17+0.2981st → 85th0.649%16.9 / 17.2
14Emmet Ward '16Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 218/181.431.98+0.5571st → 83rd1.930%17.0 / 19.7
15Cameron Grubb '16Oxbridge Academy18/181.652.05+0.4077th → 83rd1.141%17.3 / 18.6
16Hallie Schiffman '18Pine View School Pythons 118/182.591.85−0.7493rd → 81st4.487%17.7 / 13.6
17Sam Tobio '16St. Stephen's Episcopal School18/181.17u2.05+0.8964th → 83rd5.026%17.7 / 21.0
18Daniel Petrovic '15Antilles School Hurricanes 418/182.161.67−0.4985th → 77th2.069%18.3 / 16.0
19Chase Carraway '18Cape Fear Academy Varsity 218/183.161.71−1.4699th → 78th22.799%18.4 / 10.8
20Paige Clark '16Antilles School Hurricanes 218/181.17u1.46+0.2964th → 72nd0.638%19.4 / 21.0
21Chase Burwell '17Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 118/181.511.70+0.1973rd → 78th0.353%19.5 / 19.1
22Louisa Nordstrom '16Pine View School Pythons 218/182.151.84−0.3185th → 81st0.883%19.6 / 15.9
23Max Gillette '16St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 118/182.011.48−0.5383rd → 72nd2.478%20.6 / 16.8
24Walter Gnann '17Beaufort High School18/181.851.34−0.5181st → 68th2.174%20.8 / 17.6
25Conner Correll '18St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 518/182.221.53−0.6887th → 74th3.888%21.4 / 15.7
26Will Monts '16Hilton Head Preparatory School18/182.011.37−0.6583rd → 68th3.590%23.3 / 16.8
27Katy Lounsbury '16Jensen Beach High School18/181.13u1.10−0.0361st → 61st0.069%23.8 / 21.3
28Calli Lewis '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 418/181.750.67−1.0879th → 45th9.594%25.5 / 17.9
29Ciara Dorsay '17Pine View School Pythons 418/181.460.70−0.7672nd → 45th4.889%25.9 / 19.8
30Benjamin Smith '22Cape Fear Academy Varsity 118/181.731.20−0.5379th → 65th1.699%26.3 / 18.1
31G. Alex White '16Durham School of The Arts18/181.320.78−0.5367th → 49th2.289%26.6 / 20.4
32Isabella Lemole '16Pine View School Pythons 318/180.85-0.18−1.0452nd → 16th5.893%29.4 / 22.7
33Ariel Casaretto '17Pine Crest School18/180.20-0.08−0.2827th → 20th0.482%29.7 / 25.6
34Carter Cameron '15Wando Varsity 118/181.552.74+1.1974th → 95th2.399%30.2 / 19.0
35Sydney Register '18Waccamaw High School18/18-0.04-0.99−0.9521st → 4th1.5>99%35.9 / 26.6
36Andrew Douglas '19Naples High School18/181.22——65th → —0.0>99%37.0 / 20.7

Conditions — 09/20/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 11.8 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover29% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1010.4 hPa

What this breeze does at James Island Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at James Island Yacht Club in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at James Island Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at James Island Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →