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SAISA South Great Oaks Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves 17 17
2 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 36 36
3 Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Varsity 51 51
4 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 55 55
5 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 57 57
6 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Varsity 85 85
7 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 91 91
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 17 Ian Macdiarmid '17
Alex Commette '17
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 2 4 4 36 Jack Johansson '17
Benito Guido '16
Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Varsity 4 3 4 2 4 4 5 4 2 4 4 7 2 2 51 No Show [1-10, 13-14]
Claire Glenn '15 [11-12]
Claire Glenn '15 [1-10, 13-14]
No Show [11-12]
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity 5 4 5 4 3 2 4 6 4 1 5 4 5 3 55 Chase Burwell '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Emmet Ward '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Tucker Mc Elwaney '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Isobel Bardes '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 2 5 2 5 5 5 3 3 6 5 3 5 3 5 57 Trevor Bornarth '18 [1-6, 13-14]
Kathryn Bornarth '17 [7-12]
Kathryn Bornarth '17 [1-4, 13-14]
Nick Ochalek '17 [5-10]
Trevor Bornarth '18 [11-12]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Varsity 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 6 3 7 7 85 Mikaela Munao '18
Adriana Munao '16
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 91 Mia Porter '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Joshua Temko '17 [3-4, 7-8, 13-14]
Michelle Burklan '17 [11-12]
Michelle Burklan '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Juliana Cromie '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity11111111111111
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders22222222222222
Lake Highland Preparatory SchoolLake Highland Preparatory School Varsity33333333333333
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Varsity44444444444444
Osceola Fundamental High SchoolOsceola Fundamental High School Varsity55555555555555
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy Thunderwolves66666666666666
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS77777777777777
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity Mia Porter '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Joshua Temko '17 [3-4, 7-8, 13-14]
Michelle Burklan '17 [11-12]		 Michelle Burklan '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Juliana Cromie '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11-14]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders Jack Johansson '17 Benito Guido '16
Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Varsity No Show [1-10, 13-14]
Claire Glenn '15 [11-12]		 Claire Glenn '15 [1-10, 13-14]
No Show [11-12]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Varsity Mikaela Munao '18 Adriana Munao '16
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity Chase Burwell '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Emmet Ward '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Tucker Mc Elwaney '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Isobel Bardes '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves Ian Macdiarmid '17 Alex Commette '17
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS Trevor Bornarth '18 [1-6, 13-14]
Kathryn Bornarth '17 [7-12]		 Kathryn Bornarth '17 [1-4, 13-14]
Nick Ochalek '17 [5-10]
Trevor Bornarth '18 [11-12]

Conditions — 10/11/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 73°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 4.7 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From NE (37°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1016.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Petersburg: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.45 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at St. Petersburg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →