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VISA CCS Fleet Regatta JV

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School JV 10 10
2 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy JV 13 13
3 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 19 19
4 Maury High School Maury High School JV 23 23
5 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 24 24
6 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV 25 25
7 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 31 31
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School JV 34 34
9 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV 35 35
10 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School JV 35 35
11 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School JV 49 49
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School JV 1 2 3 2 1 1 10 Madison Brumbaugh '14 [1-6]
Jd '16 [1-2]
Charlotte Cope '15 [3-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy JV BYE BYE 2 3 2 2 13 Mitchell Hynes '18 [1-6]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [1-2]
Nicole Lavallee '18 [3-4]
Emily Argust '20 [5-6]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield BYE BYE 1 4 4 4 19 Ashton Hardesty '18
Teresa Bonnin '17
Maury High School Maury High School JV 5 4 BYE BYE 3 3 23 Alexandra Lingle '18 [1-2]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]
Byron Armstrong '17 [5-6]
Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Cole Weaver '20 [3-4]
Tyler Cason '17 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 2 1 8 5 BYE BYE 24 Jack Whitmore '19 [4, 6]
Solomon Duane '19 [5]
Michael Hostutler '20 [4, 6]
Maiya Foleck '19 [5]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV BYE BYE 4 1 6 6 25 David Pellei '18
Maddy O'Connell '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 3 6 6 6 BYE BYE 31 Ben Mcgee '19 [1-2]
Olivia Basco '19 [3-4]
Jared Cronin '17 [5-6]
Mark Fitzharris '19 [1-2]
Jill Shoemaker '19 [3-4]
Alex Kitay '19 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School JV 4 5 5 8 BYE BYE 34
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV 6 7 BYE BYE 5 5 35 Samantha Huggin '18
Christian Williams '17
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School JV BKD 3 7 7 BYE BYE 35
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School JV 7 DNS BYE BYE 7 7 49
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School JV112233
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy JV2233
Maury High SchoolMaury High School JV3344
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy JV4455
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy JV445566
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School JV5566
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School JV6677
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield7788
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School JV7788
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School JV8811
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy JV1122
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School JV Madison Brumbaugh '14 [1-6] Jd '16 [1-2]
Charlotte Cope '15 [3-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV Ben Mcgee '19 [1-2]
Olivia Basco '19 [3-4]
Jared Cronin '17 [5-6]		 Mark Fitzharris '19 [1-2]
Jill Shoemaker '19 [3-4]
Alex Kitay '19 [5-6]
Maury High School Maury High School JV Alexandra Lingle '18 [1-2]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]
Byron Armstrong '17 [5-6]		 Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Cole Weaver '20 [3-4]
Tyler Cason '17 [5-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy JV Mitchell Hynes '18 [1-6] Alex Wilkerson '19 [1-2]
Nicole Lavallee '18 [3-4]
Emily Argust '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV Jack Whitmore '19 [4, 6]
Solomon Duane '19 [5]		 Michael Hostutler '20 [4, 6]
Maiya Foleck '19 [5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV Samantha Huggin '18 Christian Williams '17
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield Ashton Hardesty '18 Teresa Bonnin '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV David Pellei '18 Maddy O'Connell '20

Conditions — 09/06/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 89°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1015.6 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.31 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →