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VISA NCS Fleet Race Regatta JV

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School JV 24 24
2 Maury High School Maury High School JV 25 25
3 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV 30 30
4 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 31 31
5 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 46 46
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School JV 54 54
7 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV 90 90
8 York High School York High School JV 90 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School JV 1 3 2 3 1 2 6 1 2 3 24 Parker Bunting '18 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Bryce Hoen '18 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
Bryce Hoen '18 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Parker Bunting '18 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
Maury High School Maury High School JV 2 4 1 1 2 3 1 4 6 1 25 Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-10]
Will Philpott '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Will Moore '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV 6 2 4 2 5 1 4 3 1 2 30 William Olsen '19
Tristan O'Connell '17
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 3 1 5 4 3 4 2 2 3 4 31 Solomon Duane '19 [1-5]
Jack Kilduff '18 [6-7]
Lawson Montgomery '18 [8-10]
Karina Dick '19 [1-5]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [6-10]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 5 5 3 6 4 5 3 6 4 5 46 Mark Fitzharris '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ben Mcgee '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Jill Shoemaker '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Zach Gohlson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School JV 4 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 54
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90
York High School York High School JV DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 Ben Clarke '16
Ben Clarke '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy JV11111111111111111111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School JV12121212121212121212
Maury High SchoolMaury High School JV13131313131313131313
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy JV14141414141414141414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School JV15151515151515151515
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School JV16161616161616161616
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy JV17171717171717171717
York High SchoolYork High School JV18181818181818181818
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV Mark Fitzharris '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ben Mcgee '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Jill Shoemaker '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Zach Gohlson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School JV Parker Bunting '18 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Bryce Hoen '18 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]		 Bryce Hoen '18 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9]
Parker Bunting '18 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
Maury High School Maury High School JV Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-10] Will Philpott '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Will Moore '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV Solomon Duane '19 [1-5]
Jack Kilduff '18 [6-7]
Lawson Montgomery '18 [8-10]		 Karina Dick '19 [1-5]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [6-10]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV William Olsen '19 Tristan O'Connell '17
York High School York High School JV Ben Clarke '16 Ben Clarke '16

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1003.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.4 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From W (274°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1003.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.52)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →