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VISA Poq. Fleet Race Regatta JV

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School JV 24 24
2 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy JV 24 24
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 24 24
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School JV 34 34
5 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV 34 34
6 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 41 41
7 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV 43 43
8 York High School York High School JV 45 45
9 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 57 57
10 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School JV 58 58
11 Maury High School Maury High School JV 64 64
12 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School JV 88 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School JV 1 1 BYE BYE 3 5 BYE BYE 3 2 1 24
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy JV 4 5 BYE BYE 1 2 BYE BYE 1 1 BYE 24
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV BYE BYE 1 2 BYE BYE 2 2 BYE BYE 5 24
Christchurch School Christchurch School JV 2 4 3 4 BYE BYE 5 1 BYE BYE 3 34
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV BYE BYE 5 1 BYE BYE 4 4 2 3 BYE 34 Christian Williams '17
Sam Huggin '18
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 6 2 BYE BYE 2 3 3 5 BYE BYE 4 41 Ashton Hardesty '18
Teresa Bonnin '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV 5 3 BYE BYE 7 6 1 3 BYE BYE 2 43 Tristan O'Connell '17
William Olsen '19
York High School York High School JV BYE BYE 2 3 6 1 BYE BYE 5 DSQ BYE 45 Haydon Gould '19 [1-11]
Ben Clarke '16 [1-2, 7-8, 11]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4]
Marissa White '18 [5-6]
Haydon Gould '19 [9-10]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 3 6 BYE BYE 5 4 BYE BYE DSQ 6 BYE 57 Alex Kitay '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Mark Fitzharris '19 [3-4]
Olivia Basco '19 [5-6]
Jared Cronin '17 [9-11]
Zach Gohlson '18 [1-2]
Diaana Mohsin '19 [3-4]
Jill Shoemaker '19 [5-6]
Jared Cronin '17 [7-8]
Alex Kitay '19 [9-11]
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School JV BYE BYE 6 6 4 7 BYE BYE 4 5 6 58
Maury High School Maury High School JV BYE BYE 4 5 BYE BYE 6 6 BYE BYE 7 64 Tyler Cason '18 [3-4]
Byron Armstrong '18 [7-8]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [11]
Will Philpott '19 [3-4]
Kayla Washington '17 [7-8]
Alexandrea Lingle '19 [11]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School JV 7 7 7 7 BYE BYE DNS DNS 6 4 BYE 88
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School JV1122334
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy JV223344
Maury High SchoolMaury High School JV33445
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy JV334455
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy JV44556
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School JV4455667
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School JV556677
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield5566771
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School JV6677112
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School JV66771122
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy JV7711223
York High SchoolYork High School JV112233
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV Alex Kitay '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Mark Fitzharris '19 [3-4]
Olivia Basco '19 [5-6]
Jared Cronin '17 [9-11]		 Zach Gohlson '18 [1-2]
Diaana Mohsin '19 [3-4]
Jill Shoemaker '19 [5-6]
Jared Cronin '17 [7-8]
Alex Kitay '19 [9-11]
Maury High School Maury High School JV Tyler Cason '18 [3-4]
Byron Armstrong '18 [7-8]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [11]		 Will Philpott '19 [3-4]
Kayla Washington '17 [7-8]
Alexandrea Lingle '19 [11]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School JV Christian Williams '17 Sam Huggin '18
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield Ashton Hardesty '18 Teresa Bonnin '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV Tristan O'Connell '17 William Olsen '19
York High School York High School JV Haydon Gould '19 [1-11] Ben Clarke '16 [1-2, 7-8, 11]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4]
Marissa White '18 [5-6]
Haydon Gould '19 [9-10]

Conditions — 09/27/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From NNE (31°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.20 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.64 ± 0.64)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →