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ISSA Cressy Singlehanded Nationals - Radial Rig

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Joseph Hou '18 40
2 Ida S Baker Hig School Ida S Baker Hig School Gage Wilson '17 62
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 72
4 South River High School South River High School Leo Boucher '18 81
5 Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Kaili Yap '19 91
6 Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Lucas Pierce '17 92
7 Westside High School Westside High School Kanttida (Charlotte) Rose '18 110
8 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Jake Vickers '18 120
9 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Caleb Robinson '18 130
10 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Jessica Mcjones '16 132
11 Milton Academy Milton Academy Christina Sakellaris '17 137
12 The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 143
13 Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 147
14 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Gray Kiger '16 150
15 Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 159
16 Kentucky Country Day School Kentucky Country Day School Carly Broussard '17 175
17 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Michael Ehnot '18 178
18 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Mark Davies '16 199
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Joseph Hou '18 1 2 2 2 10 2 5 1 3 2 2 1 7 40
Ida S Baker Hig School Ida S Baker Hig School Gage Wilson '17 2 5 4 1 8 3 3 9 1 3 8 2 13 62
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 6 4 9 4 3 1 1 13 6 6 3 8 8 72
South River High School South River High School Leo Boucher '18 4 7 7 5 5 4 11 12 2 7 6 10 1 81
Bishop Verot High School Bishop Verot High School Kaili Yap '19 3 1 1 3 9 10 2 17 5 1 10 15 14 91
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Lucas Pierce '17 7 3 8 7 4 14 10 3 4 4 4 6 18 92
Westside High School Westside High School Kanttida (Charlotte) Rose '18 5 8 12 13 DSQ 16 4 2 13 13 5 3 4 110
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Jake Vickers '18 8 13 5 6 1 5 15 15 7 12 13 17 3 120
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Caleb Robinson '18 9 16 6 8 16 11 6 11 12 14 1 9 11 130
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Jessica Mcjones '16 12 14 11 10 18 7 8 10 11 10 11 5 5 132
Milton Academy Milton Academy Christina Sakellaris '17 13 12 10 15 7 9 9 8 15 9 9 11 10 137
The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 14 11 17 16 RDG 17 12 6 10 5 12 4 12 143
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 18 6 16 18 12 6 17 7 8 16 7 7 9 147
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Gray Kiger '16 11 10 15 17 2 13 7 14 9 18 14 18 2 150
Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 10 9 3 14 14 8 13 18 16 8 17 13 16 159
Kentucky Country Day School Kentucky Country Day School Carly Broussard '17 15 17 13 9 15 12 16 5 18 17 16 16 6 175
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Michael Ehnot '18 17 18 14 12 6 18 14 4 14 15 15 14 17 178
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Mark Davies '16 16 15 18 11 17 15 18 16 17 11 18 12 15 199

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Joseph Hou '18Newport Harbor High School13/132.924.84+1.9298th → 99th11.6<1%3.1 / 8.0
2Gage Wilson '17Ida S Baker Hig School13/132.784.00+1.2296th → 99th5.76%4.8 / 8.5
3Sophia Reineke '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School13/133.213.78+0.5799th → 99th1.420%5.5 / 7.3
4Leo Boucher '18South River High School13/133.533.55+0.0299th → 99th0.048%6.2 / 6.5
5Kaili Yap '19Bishop Verot High School13/130.303.07+2.7731st → 99th22.7<1%7.0 / 14.5
6Lucas Pierce '17Santa Barbara High School Dons 113/132.883.02+0.1397th → 98th0.132%7.1 / 8.1
7Kanttida (Charlotte) Rose '18Westside High School13/131.51u2.96+1.4573rd → 98th7.515%9.0 / 11.8
8Jake Vickers '18Archbishop Spalding13/132.382.59+0.2190th → 93rd0.246%9.2 / 9.5
9Caleb Robinson '18Falmouth High School, ME13/132.392.58+0.1991st → 93rd0.258%10.0 / 9.5
10Jessica Mcjones '16Portsmouth Abbey School13/132.032.54+0.5183rd → 92nd1.144%10.2 / 10.5
11Christina Sakellaris '17Milton Academy13/133.012.51−0.4998th → 92nd1.490%10.5 / 7.9
12Caden Scheiblauer '19Santa Barbara High School Dons 213/132.031.91−0.1283rd → 82nd0.165%11.3 / 10.5
13Gray Kiger '16Norfolk Academy13/132.411.82−0.5991st → 80th1.877%11.5 / 9.5
14Talia Toland '17The Overlake School13/132.472.17−0.3092nd → 85th0.589%11.9 / 9.3
15Grant Gridley '18Oregon City High School13/131.651.93+0.2877th → 82nd0.364%12.2 / 11.5
16Carly Broussard '17Kentucky Country Day School13/132.511.60−0.9092nd → 75th4.898%13.5 / 9.2
17Michael Ehnot '18Christian Brothers Academy13/132.221.50−0.7287th → 73rd2.798%13.7 / 9.9
18Mark Davies '16Latin School of Chicago13/132.581.02−1.5593rd → 58th13.9>99%15.3 / 9.1

Conditions — 10/31/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1022.6 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.4 kn
avg  ·  max 4.0 kn
Gusts to 9.7 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1022.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion University — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion University in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Old Dominion University, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →