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2015 Sugar Bowl Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 28 31 59
2 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 44 30 74
3 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 35 50 85
4 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 67 39 106
5 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 54 77 131
6 Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 93 80 173
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 87 98 185
8 Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail 99 100 199
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 1 4 3 1 1 28 Garrett Stanley '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Nick Gault '17 [11-12]
Danielle Zwerg '19 [1-10, 13-14]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 1 5 RAF 35 Jonathan Schrantz '20
Nicholas Combe '19
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 4 5 3 4 3 6 2 1 3 2 1 6 2 2 44 William Breaux '16 [1-4, 7-12]
Robert Argote '18 [5-6, 13-14]
Connor Housey '17 [1-2, 5-6, 11-14]
John Kemmerly '16 [3-4, 7-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 3 4 3 5 4 4 4 2 4 2 2 3 RAF 54 Charles Breath '18 [1-14]
Avery Cerniglia '16 [1-6]
Gerardo Garcia Devilla '20 [7-14]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 3 4 5 5 4 3 6 8 5 5 5 5 4 5 67 Pete Mcgriff '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Max Morgan '18 [3, 9-10, 13-14]
Forrest Pearson '16 [4, 7-8, 11-12]
Connor Cobb '19 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Forrest Pearson '16 [3]
Max Morgan '18 [4]
Nathan Valentine '19 [9-10, 13-14]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 7 6 6 6 6 5 7 6 8 8 7 4 7 4 87 Sofia Giordano '16 [1-8, 11-12]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [9-10, 13-14]
Corinne Martin '20 [1-4]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [5-6]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [7-8, 11-12]
Sofia Giordano '16 [9-10]
Tylar Warren '18 [13-14]
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 6 7 8 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 8 7 8 6 93 Jack Walsten '18 [1-2, 9-10, 13-14]
Michael Duhe '19 [3, 7-8, 12]
Danny Ineich '20 [4-6, 11]
Michael Duhe '19 [1-2, 4, 9-11]
Danny Ineich '20 [3, 7-8, 12-14]
Jack Walsten '18 [5-6]
Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 6 3 99 Alex Rouse '18 [1-14]
Teaisha Henderson '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Martha Leblanc '19 [3-4, 7-14]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 3 1 2 1 1 1 4 4 2 1 1 1 4 4 30 Michael Haupt '17 [1-14]
Max Bell '17 [1-4]
William Nance '18 [5-14]
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 31 Matthew Demboski '17
Haley Baker '17
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 1 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 5 4 4 4 1 3 39 Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Crawford Stitt '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Gavin Day '17 [9-10, 13-14]
Liam Bishop '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Sidney Williams '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 7 5 7 3 6 4 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 50 Chris Hebert '19 [1-14]
Breely Bennett '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Beau Vandenburgh '19 [3-4, 7-14]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 5 4 8 6 5 6 6 5 4 6 5 5 6 6 77 Joshua Grumme '20 [1-2, 5-14]
J.T. Moore '16 [3-4]
J.T. Moore '16 [1-2]
Frederick Cabell '19 [3-14]
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 4 DSQ 4 5 4 8 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 7 80 Jack Altman '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Matthew St. Martin '19 [3-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Matthew St. Martin '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Connor Casso '19 [3-6, 9-12]
Jack Altman '18 [13-14]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 8 7 6 8 7 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 98 Elizabeth Squires '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Delaney Ligori '18 [3-4, 9-10, 13-14]
Delaney Ligori '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Tylar Warren '18 [3-6, 9-12]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [13-14]
Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail 6 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 100 Jourdan Gaffin '20 [1-6]
Melane Mannion '19 [7-14]
Erin Dees '20 [1-2, 5-14]
Melane Mannion '19 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Brother MartinBrother Martin Crusaders1717181819192020212122222323
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Varsity1818191920202121222223232525
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies1919202021212222232325251111
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays2020212122222323252511111212
Ocean Springs High SchoolOcean Springs High School Varsity2121222223232525111112121313
Pass Christian High School Sailing ClubPass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail2222232325251111121213131414
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws2323252511111212131314141515
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions2525111112121313141415151616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Brother MartinBrother Martin Crusaders1111121213131414151516162626
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Varsity1212131314141515161626262727
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies1313141415151616262627271717
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays1414151516162626272717171818
Ocean Springs High SchoolOcean Springs High School Varsity1515161626262727171718181919
Pass Christian High School Sailing ClubPass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail1616262627271717181819192020
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws2626272717171818191920202121
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions2727171718181919202021212222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brother Martin Brother Martin Jack Walsten '18 [1-2, 9-10, 13-14]
Michael Duhe '19 [3, 7-8, 12]
Danny Ineich '20 [4-6, 11]		 Michael Duhe '19 [1-2, 4, 9-11]
Danny Ineich '20 [3, 7-8, 12-14]
Jack Walsten '18 [5-6]
Crusaders Jack Altman '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Matthew St. Martin '19 [3-4, 9-10, 13-14]		 Matthew St. Martin '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Connor Casso '19 [3-6, 9-12]
Jack Altman '18 [13-14]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pete Mcgriff '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Max Morgan '18 [3, 9-10, 13-14]
Forrest Pearson '16 [4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Connor Cobb '19 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Forrest Pearson '16 [3]
Max Morgan '18 [4]
Nathan Valentine '19 [9-10, 13-14]
Varsity Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Crawford Stitt '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Gavin Day '17 [9-10, 13-14]		 Liam Bishop '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Sidney Williams '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Jonathan Schrantz '20 Nicholas Combe '19
Greenies Chris Hebert '19 [1-14] Breely Bennett '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Beau Vandenburgh '19 [3-4, 7-14]
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA William Breaux '16 [1-4, 7-12]
Robert Argote '18 [5-6, 13-14]		 Connor Housey '17 [1-2, 5-6, 11-14]
John Kemmerly '16 [3-4, 7-10]
Blue Jays Michael Haupt '17 [1-14] Max Bell '17 [1-4]
William Nance '18 [5-14]
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Garrett Stanley '18 [1-10, 13-14]
Nick Gault '17 [11-12]		 Danielle Zwerg '19 [1-10, 13-14]
Varsity Matthew Demboski '17 Haley Baker '17
Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Alex Rouse '18 [1-14] Teaisha Henderson '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Martha Leblanc '19 [3-4, 7-14]
Pass Christian Sail Jourdan Gaffin '20 [1-6]
Melane Mannion '19 [7-14]		 Erin Dees '20 [1-2, 5-14]
Melane Mannion '19 [3-4]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Charles Breath '18 [1-14] Avery Cerniglia '16 [1-6]
Gerardo Garcia Devilla '20 [7-14]
Rock-A-Chaws Joshua Grumme '20 [1-2, 5-14]
J.T. Moore '16 [3-4]		 J.T. Moore '16 [1-2]
Frederick Cabell '19 [3-14]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Sofia Giordano '16 [1-8, 11-12]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [9-10, 13-14]		 Corinne Martin '20 [1-4]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [5-6]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [7-8, 11-12]
Sofia Giordano '16 [9-10]
Tylar Warren '18 [13-14]
Lions Elizabeth Squires '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Delaney Ligori '18 [3-4, 9-10, 13-14]		 Delaney Ligori '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Tylar Warren '18 [3-6, 9-12]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [13-14]

Conditions — 12/05/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 95%  ·  Pressure 1039.5 hPa

Temperature

34°F
↑ 36°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 28°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine3.3 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1039.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jesuit: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.23 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jesuit: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →