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Michigan State Laser Radial States

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Justin Lovell '17 6 2 1 3 3 2 1 18
University Liggett School University Liggett School Alex Johnson '18 2 1 2 2 4 5 6 22
St Mary's Prep St Mary's Prep Tyler Allen '18 1 6 5 7 1 3 5 28
University Liggett School University Liggett School Henry Combs '19 8 17 3 5 7 1 2 43
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Liam Walz '17 11 5 14 4 2 4 3 43
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Noah Wolters '19 7 7 6 1 5 7 11 44
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Ian Reimel '19 4 8 4 8 8 9 7 48
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Adam Weinkauf '18 9 3 7 13 6 15 15 68
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Ryan Rozycki '16 3 14 11 10 12 11 12 73
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Kate Mackeigan '19 15 11 9 9 9 13 9 75
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Liz Obermaier '17 10 10 8 11 DNS 12 4 76
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Harrison George '18 19 9 10 6 10 6 DSQ 81
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull '19 5 15 12 14 14 10 13 83
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Nicole Millerman '19 14 12 19 12 11 8 10 86
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Chris Twomley '17 17 13 16 15 13 14 8 96
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Lindsey Ramsdell '18 13 4 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Nolan Beaty '19 16 18 18 16 16 16 16 116
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Toby Pfeiffer '18 18 DNF 17 17 15 17 14 119
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Amanda Williams '17 12 16 15 DNS DNS DNS DNS 127
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School David Silverman '17 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 147

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  20 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Justin Lovell '17East Grand Rapids Justin Lovell7/71.493.46+1.9773rd → 99th6.32%2.6 / 7.8
2Alex Johnson '18University Liggett School Alex Johnson7/70.893.03+2.1553rd → 98th7.7<1%3.1 / 9.5
3Tyler Allen '18St Mary's Prep7/71.14u2.54+1.4062nd → 92nd3.85%4.0 / 8.9
4Henry Combs '19University Liggett School Henry Combs7/7-0.061.20+1.2620th → 65th3.03%6.1 / 12.2
4Liam Walz '17Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold7/71.101.57+0.4761st → 74th0.521%6.1 / 8.9
6Noah Wolters '19Spring Lake High School7/71.641.55−0.0976th → 74th0.038%6.3 / 7.5
7Ian Reimel '19Grosse Ile High School Ian Reimel7/71.371.45+0.0868th → 71st0.038%6.9 / 8.2
8Adam Weinkauf '18Grosse Pointe North High School Adam Weinkauf7/70.020.35+0.3322nd → 32nd0.326%9.7 / 12.0
9Ryan Rozycki '16Grosse Pointe North High School Ryan Rozycki7/70.330.49+0.1631st → 38th0.144%10.4 / 11.2
10Kate Mackeigan '19East Grand Rapids Kate MacKeigan7/70.570.54−0.0341st → 39th0.055%10.7 / 10.4
11Liz Obermaier '17Detroit Country Day School Liz Obermaier7/70.410.92+0.5034th → 55th0.651%10.9 / 10.8
12Harrison George '18Detroit Country Day School Harrison George7/70.560.26−0.2941st → 30th0.264%11.6 / 10.5
13Jack Bull '19West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull7/70.520.03−0.5039th → 22nd0.865%11.9 / 10.6
14Nicole Millerman '19West Bloomfield High School Nicole Millerman7/7-0.02-0.11−0.0921st → 19th0.052%12.3 / 12.1
15Chris Twomley '17Grosse Ile High School Chris Twomley7/70.27-0.23−0.5130th → 15th0.876%13.7 / 11.3
16Lindsey Ramsdell '18Grosse Pointe North High School Lindsey Ramsdell7/70.720.74+0.0246th → 47th0.098%16.3 / 9.9
17Nolan Beaty '19West Bloomfield High School Nolan Beaty7/7-0.36-1.71−1.3514th → 1st4.286%16.6 / 13.1
18Toby Pfeiffer '18Grosse Ile High School Toby Pfeiffer7/70.37-1.60−1.9733rd → 1st9.897%17.0 / 11.0
19Amanda Williams '17Detroit Country Day School Amanda Williams7/7-0.25-0.18+0.0715th → 17th0.097%18.1 / 12.8
20David Silverman '17Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue7/70.22——28th → —0.0>99%21.0 / 11.4

Conditions — 10/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1025.7 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NW (319°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1025.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Detroit Country Day — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Detroit Country Day in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →