NorCal One-Day #3 SILVER

HostRedwood
Date11/21/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	19	19
2	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	21	21
3	Sequoia High School	Cherokees	25	25
4	Encinal High School	Jets	46	46
5	Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	50	50
6	Redwood High School	Giants	54	54
7	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	56	56
8	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity	62	62
9	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	65	65
10	College Park High School	Falcons	65	65
11	Branson School	Bulls	66	66
12	Aptos High School	Mariners	67	67
13	Woodside Priory School	Woodside Priory	72 MRP	72 MRP
14	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	72	72
15	Woodside High School	Wildcat	77	77
16	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	79	79
17	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	91	91
18	Saratoga High School	Falcons	91 MRP	91 MRP
19	Jesuit High School - Carmichael, CA	Marauders	94	94
20	Christian Brothers High School - Sacramento	Christian Brothers	97	97
21	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	100	100
22	Menlo School	Varsity	103	103
23	Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	109	109
24	Los Altos High	Eagles	110 MRP	110 MRP
25	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	112	112
26	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 1	118	118
27	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 2	118	118
28	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	124	124
29	Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	130 MRP	130 MRP
30	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	152	152
31	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 5	158	158

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	6	7	1	1	4	19	Lily Cunningham '17 Rachel Sherr '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	4	8	4	4	1	21	Peter Werner '17 Jonathan Fisher '17
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	5	2	9	3	6	25	Christian Brown '18 Gavin Bradley '18
Encinal High School	Jets	2	27	2	5	10	46	Thomas Zenner '19 [1-5] Lily Imani '20 [1-2, 5] Gemma Hansen '20 [3-4]
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	3	1	11	OCS	3	50	Kate Chandler '17 [1-5] Amy Ely '16 [1-2] Peter Melrose '16 [3-4] Logan Johnson '16 [5]
Redwood High School	Giants	17	3	10	12	12	54	Kali Gibbs '18 [1-5] Jackson Coster '18 [1, 4-5] Michael Brandon '16 [2-3]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	8	16	16	8	8	56	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1, 3, 5] Jade Greer '19 [2, 4] Jade Greer '19 [1, 3, 5] Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [2, 4]
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity	7	4	14	22	15	62	Isabel De La Torre '16 Evelyn Plam '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	11	5	15	OCS	2	65	Emma Figueredo '19 Alex Meislich '19
College Park High School	Falcons	DNS	14	5	9	5	65	Zack Taylor '19 [1-5] Riley Maxon '18 [1, 4] Matt St. Germain '18 [2-3, 5]
Branson School	Bulls	10	23	3	19	11	66	Kamila Harting '18 [1-4] Andrew Fisher '19 [5] Sari Wisoff '18 [1, 4-5] Andrew Fisher '19 [2-3]
Aptos High School	Mariners	20	11	7	7	22	67	Isabel Andrew '16 [1-5] Madeline Miller '16 [1, 3-5] Spencer Frawley '16 [2]
Woodside Priory School	Woodside Priory	1	6	12	24	9	72 MRP	Jacob Kowalski '19 Oliver Olsen (Waldorf Pen) '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	13	9	17	17	16	72	Ellis Webb '19 Emma Jones '18
Woodside High School	Wildcat	18	25	25	2	7	77	Tyler Davis '18 Marianna Lubarsky '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	15	17	22	11	14	79	Griffin Chen '19 Jack Curphey '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	16	10	23	25	17	91	Arthur Wechsler '18 [1, 3, 5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [2, 4] Reid Wishner '19 [1-2, 4-5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [3]
Saratoga High School	Falcons	19	13	8	13	18	91 MRP	Lilah Foster '17 Lilah Foster '17
Jesuit High School - Carmichael, CA	Marauders	DNS	15	6	15	26	94	Donovan Mcguire '18 Geo Biery '18
Christian Brothers High School - Sacramento	Christian Brothers	25	19	13	21	19	97	Lucas Vallejo '19 Erica Frederickson (Davis) '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	9	21	19	23	28	100	Joe De Hemptinne '19 Nikki Eliaschev '18
Menlo School	Varsity	DNF	24	20	6	21	103	Taggart Bonham '16 Izzy Koningstein '16
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	14	22	24	20	29	109	Stuart Myers '17 Max Rodman '18
Los Altos High	Eagles	12	12	21	OCS	13	110 MRP	Albert Zhao '19 Amir Tadros '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	23	26	28	10	25	112	Noelle Scheer '18 Elise Nicol '18
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 1	21	28	DNS	14	23	118	Margot Kirby '19 [1-5] Nolwenn Menard '19 [1-2, 4-5] Lorenzo Baldo '18 [3]
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 2	22	DNF	26	18	20	118	Hugo Agnola '19 [1-5] Lorenzo Baldo '18 [1-2] Sebastian Westerink '19 [3-5]
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	26	18	27	26	27	124	Quinn Donahue '16 Pilar Mcdonald '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	DNS	20	18	16	24	130 MRP	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Rosie Ward '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	24	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	152	Ryan Osier '18 Alexa Neely '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 5	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNF	30	158	Nickolas Monrique '19 Annie Blackadar '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101	101	101
Berkeley High School Varsity 1	61	61	61	61	61
Berkeley High School Varsity 2	60	60	60	60	60
Christian Brothers High School - Sacramento Christian Brothers	120	120	120	120	120
College Park High School Falcons	52	52	52	52	52
Encinal High School Jets	57	57	57	57	57
International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity	7	7	7	7	7
Jesuit High School - Carmichael, CA Marauders	127	127	127	127	127
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	8	8	8	8	8
Los Altos High Eagles	26	26	26	26	26
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity 1	70	70	70	70	70
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity 2	72	72	72	72	72
Menlo School Varsity	25	25	25	25	25
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105
Redwood High School Giants	17	17	17	17	17
Saratoga High School Falcons	107	107	107	107	107
Sequoia High School Cherokees	23	23	23	23	23
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2
Sir Francis Drake Varsity 1	96	96	96	96	96
Sir Francis Drake Varsity 2	95	95	95	95	95
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity	4	4	4	4	4
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity	24	24	24	24	24
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	139	139	139	139	139
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	140	140	140	140	140
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 4	80	80	80	80	80
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 5	119	119	119	119	119
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	81	81	81	81	81
Branson School Bulls	16	16	16	16	16
Woodside High School Wildcat	27	27	27	27	27
Woodside Priory School Woodside Priory	22	22	22	22	22

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Aptos High School	Mariners	Isabel Andrew '16 [1-5]	Madeline Miller '16 [1, 3-5] Spencer Frawley '16 [2]
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Rosie Ward '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	Stuart Myers '17	Max Rodman '18
Branson School	Bulls	Kamila Harting '18 [1-4] Andrew Fisher '19 [5]	Sari Wisoff '18 [1, 4-5] Andrew Fisher '19 [2-3]
Christian Brothers High School - Sacramento	Christian Brothers	Lucas Vallejo '19	Erica Frederickson (Davis) '20
College Park High School	Falcons	Zack Taylor '19 [1-5]	Riley Maxon '18 [1, 4] Matt St. Germain '18 [2-3, 5]
Encinal High School	Jets	Thomas Zenner '19 [1-5]	Lily Imani '20 [1-2, 5] Gemma Hansen '20 [3-4]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1, 3, 5] Jade Greer '19 [2, 4]	Jade Greer '19 [1, 3, 5] Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [2, 4]
Jesuit High School - Carmichael, CA	Marauders	Donovan Mcguire '18	Geo Biery '18
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Quinn Donahue '16	Pilar Mcdonald '19
Los Altos High	Eagles	Albert Zhao '19	Amir Tadros '19
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 1	Margot Kirby '19 [1-5]	Nolwenn Menard '19 [1-2, 4-5] Lorenzo Baldo '18 [3]
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity 2	Hugo Agnola '19 [1-5]	Lorenzo Baldo '18 [1-2] Sebastian Westerink '19 [3-5]
Menlo School	Varsity	Taggart Bonham '16	Izzy Koningstein '16
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	Kate Chandler '17 [1-5]	Amy Ely '16 [1-2] Peter Melrose '16 [3-4] Logan Johnson '16 [5]
Redwood High School	Giants	Kali Gibbs '18 [1-5]	Jackson Coster '18 [1, 4-5] Michael Brandon '16 [2-3]
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	Lily Cunningham '17	Rachel Sherr '16
Saratoga High School	Falcons	Lilah Foster '17	Lilah Foster '17
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	Christian Brown '18	Gavin Bradley '18
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 1	Ryan Osier '18	Alexa Neely '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity 2	Noelle Scheer '18	Elise Nicol '18
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity	Isabel De La Torre '16	Evelyn Plam '19
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity	Peter Werner '17	Jonathan Fisher '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Griffin Chen '19	Jack Curphey '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Joe De Hemptinne '19	Nikki Eliaschev '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	Emma Figueredo '19	Alex Meislich '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	Ellis Webb '19	Emma Jones '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 5	Nickolas Monrique '19	Annie Blackadar '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Arthur Wechsler '18 [1, 3, 5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [2, 4]	Reid Wishner '19 [1-2, 4-5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [3]
Woodside High School	Wildcat	Tyler Davis '18	Marianna Lubarsky '19
Woodside Priory School	Woodside Priory	Jacob Kowalski '19	Oliver Olsen (Waldorf Pen) '19

Conditions — 11/21/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.1 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 13.2 kn

From NE (41°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1018.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Redwood: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.40 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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