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Norfolk Academy JV Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 20 20
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 21 21
3 Maury High School Maury High School JV 1 23 23
4 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School JV 27 27
5 York High School York High School JV 29 29
6 Maury High School Maury High School JV 2 35 35
7 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 36 36
8 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 47 47
9 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints JV 52 52
10 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School JV 56 56
11 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV 66 66
12 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Saints JV 78 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 7 3 1 3 1 5 20 Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-6]
Carter Lydon '20 [1-3]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [4-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV 2 1 3 8 4 3 21 Jack Kilduff '18
Maiya Foleck '19
Maury High School Maury High School JV 1 1 7 2 4 2 7 23 Connor Mccrillis '20
Cole Weaver '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School JV DNF 2 6 1 3 2 27 Gavin Smith '21 [1-6]
Morgan Handly '21 [1-2]
David Michael Jennings '14 [3-4]
Mallory Sotor '20 [5-6]
York High School York High School JV 3 6 4 2 DNF 1 29 Brian Fox '19 [1-3]
Haydon Gould '19 [4-6]
Sydney Kelly '20 [1-3]
Ethan White '20 [4-6]
Maury High School Maury High School JV 2 4 4 9 6 6 6 35 Charlie White '15 [1-3]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [4-6]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-3]
Jalen Rogers '19 [4-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 5 5 5 7 5 9 36 Brylie Schaubach '22 [1]
Mike Klink '15 [2-3, 6]
Nick Baker '16 [4-5]
Clare Harbin '19 [1]
Chapman Holt '20 [2-3]
Jon Krueger '20 [4-5]
Ethan Myers '19 [6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV 6 9 8 9 7 8 47 Connor Duggan '19 [1-4]
Olivia Basco '19 [5-6]
Scott Spencer '19 [1-4]
Brandon Kim '19 [5-6]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints JV 8 8 7 11 8 10 52 Dylan Gibbs '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Pierce Wilt '19 [3-4]
Alex Davis '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricky Stockel '17 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School JV 9 10 10 10 DNS 4 56 Tyson Denton '21 [1-6]
Ricky Cordner '19 [1-2]
Ryan Nguyen '20 [3-6]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV DNS 11 11 5 DNS DNS 66 Katherine Anna Hamner '22
Julia Wilson '22
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Saints JV DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 78 Sally Mcaulliffe '18
Isabella Sims '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy JV111111111111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School JV141414141414
Maury High SchoolMaury High School JV 1101010101010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School JV 2121212121212
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints777777
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy JV999999
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks131313131313
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School JV151515151515
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Saints JV181818181818
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints JV161616161616
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy JV171717171717
York High SchoolYork High School JV888888
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy JV Connor Duggan '19 [1-4]
Olivia Basco '19 [5-6]		 Scott Spencer '19 [1-4]
Brandon Kim '19 [5-6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School JV Tyson Denton '21 [1-6] Ricky Cordner '19 [1-2]
Ryan Nguyen '20 [3-6]
Maury High School Maury High School JV 1 Connor Mccrillis '20 Cole Weaver '20
Maury High School Maury High School JV 2 Charlie White '15 [1-3]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [4-6]		 Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-3]
Jalen Rogers '19 [4-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-6] Carter Lydon '20 [1-3]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [4-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy JV Jack Kilduff '18 Maiya Foleck '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks Brylie Schaubach '22 [1]
Mike Klink '15 [2-3, 6]
Nick Baker '16 [4-5]		 Clare Harbin '19 [1]
Chapman Holt '20 [2-3]
Jon Krueger '20 [4-5]
Ethan Myers '19 [6]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School JV Gavin Smith '21 [1-6] Morgan Handly '21 [1-2]
David Michael Jennings '14 [3-4]
Mallory Sotor '20 [5-6]
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Saints JV Sally Mcaulliffe '18 Isabella Sims '17
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints JV Dylan Gibbs '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Pierce Wilt '19 [3-4]		 Alex Davis '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricky Stockel '17 [3-4]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy JV Katherine Anna Hamner '22 Julia Wilson '22
York High School York High School JV Brian Fox '19 [1-3]
Haydon Gould '19 [4-6]		 Sydney Kelly '20 [1-3]
Ethan White '20 [4-6]

Conditions — 10/10/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 12.4 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.8 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1018.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →