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NWISA Singlehanded Champs - Radials

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 13
2 Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 30
3 Seattle Prep Seattle Prep Carlos Morales '17 56
4 Garfield High School Garfield High School Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19 60
5 Franklin High School Franklin High School Thomas Hope '16 68
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Caelan Juckniess '16 74
7 Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Claire Siegel-Wilson '18 110
8 Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School John Ped '16 111
9 Woodinville High School Woodinville High School Tim Player '16 113
10 Orcas High School Orcas High School Ronan Kau '19 117
11 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Max Van Dam '16 130
12 Olympia High School Olympia High School Max Miller '18 143
13 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Liam Sherry '16 145
14 Redmond Senior High School Redmond Senior High School Pearl Thijssen '17 148
15 Olympia High School Olympia High School Elena Gonick '16 148
16 Orcas High School Orcas High School Maggie Toombs '18 153
17 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Maddie Ekin '16 158
18 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Jordan Wood-Pina '18 158
19 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Niko Twilla '18 170
20 Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Blake Winner '16 224
21 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Lina Fowler '18 242
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 13
Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 30
Seattle Prep Seattle Prep Carlos Morales '17 4 4 3 3 10 5 5 2 15 3 2 56
Garfield High School Garfield High School Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19 5 10 6 5 5 4 3 4 8 4 6 60
Franklin High School Franklin High School Thomas Hope '16 7 5 8 6 4 11 7 7 1 7 5 68
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Caelan Juckniess '16 3 15 4 4 6 8 4 5 10 5 10 74
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School Claire Siegel-Wilson '18 11 3 7 8 12 12 9 6 9 18 15 110
Oregon Episcopal School Oregon Episcopal School John Ped '16 9 7 9 9 17 7 12 8 11 11 11 111
Woodinville High School Woodinville High School Tim Player '16 6 2 11 15 3 6 14 16 14 14 12 113
Orcas High School Orcas High School Ronan Kau '19 16 12 14 13 9 9 11 9 6 10 8 117
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Max Van Dam '16 17 14 15 17 7 15 10 10 2 16 7 130
Olympia High School Olympia High School Max Miller '18 12 18 20 10 16 17 16 12 5 8 9 143
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Liam Sherry '16 10 20 5 7 15 19 6 13 13 19 18 145
Redmond Senior High School Redmond Senior High School Pearl Thijssen '17 15 16 18 11 11 10 19 18 17 9 4 148
Olympia High School Olympia High School Elena Gonick '16 20 9 17 14 8 13 15 11 16 12 13 148
Orcas High School Orcas High School Maggie Toombs '18 14 8 10 19 19 16 13 15 12 13 14 153
North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Maddie Ekin '16 13 11 16 16 18 3 8 19 OCS 15 17 158
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Jordan Wood-Pina '18 18 13 13 18 14 18 18 17 7 6 16 158
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Niko Twilla '18 8 19 19 12 13 14 17 14 18 17 19 170
Hood River Valley High School Hood River Valley High School Blake Winner '16 19 17 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 224
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Lina Fowler '18 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 242

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  21 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Talia Toland '17The Overlake School11/112.476.89+4.4292nd → 99th23.8<1%1.2 / 7.0
2Grant Gridley '18Oregon City High School11/111.564.04+2.4774th → 99th14.9<1%2.7 / 9.7
3Carlos Morales '17Seattle Prep11/111.16u2.61+1.4563rd → 94th6.53%5.1 / 10.9
4Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19Garfield High School11/110.792.72+1.9250th → 95th10.91%5.5 / 12.1
5Thomas Hope '16Franklin High School11/111.522.42+0.9074th → 91st2.913%6.2 / 9.8
6Caelan Juckniess '16Bainbridge High School11/111.682.17+0.4977th → 85th0.921%6.7 / 9.4
7Claire Siegel-Wilson '18Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 111/111.441.30−0.1471st → 67th0.150%10.0 / 10.1
8John Ped '16Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 211/111.371.41+0.0468th → 70th0.049%10.1 / 10.3
9Tim Player '16Woodinville High School11/111.531.20−0.3374th → 65th0.559%10.3 / 9.7
10Ronan Kau '19Orcas High School Vikings 111/110.751.38+0.6348th → 69th1.632%10.6 / 12.2
11Max Van Dam '16Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 211/110.780.96+0.1849th → 57th0.146%11.8 / 12.2
12Max Miller '18Olympia High School Bears 111/110.880.55−0.3353rd → 40th0.564%13.0 / 11.8
13Liam Sherry '16North Kitsap High School Dogfish 211/111.230.02−1.2165th → 22nd6.178%13.2 / 10.8
14Elena Gonick '16Olympia High School Bears 211/111.080.55−0.5360th → 41st1.376%13.5 / 11.1
14Pearl Thijssen '17Redmond Senior High School11/111.08u0.35−0.7460th → 32nd2.577%13.5 / 11.1
16Maggie Toombs '18Orcas High School Vikings 211/110.980.33−0.6557th → 31st1.877%13.9 / 11.5
17Jordan Wood-Pina '18Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 111/110.700.38−0.3145th → 33rd0.574%14.4 / 12.3
17Maddie Ekin '16North Kitsap High School Dogfish 111/110.940.40−0.5556th → 34th1.281%14.4 / 11.6
19Niko Twilla '18Central Kitsap High School Cougars 211/110.67-0.01−0.6845th → 21st2.082%15.5 / 12.5
20Blake Winner '16Hood River Valley High School11/111.020.20−0.8258th → 27th1.0>99%20.4 / 11.4
21Lina Fowler '18Central Kitsap High School Cougars 111/110.21——27th → —0.0>99%22.0 / 13.5

Conditions — 09/05/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From SSE (167°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1017.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Orcas — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Orcas in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Orcas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Orcas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →