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PCISA Laser Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 TOT
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Paul Didham '16 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 23
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Steven Leuck '16 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 DSQ 6 3 59
Long Beach Wilson High School Long Beach Wilson High School Sawyer Gibbs '16 12 3 5 11 4 5 3 9 4 5 4 5 3 6 7 4 10 100
Ventura High School Ventura High School Braedon Baum '17 3 2 2 4 9 4 5 12 8 15 5 6 9 5 6 2 14 111
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Cole Baker '16 10 4 6 7 7 6 10 4 6 9 3 2 2 3 DSQ 8 12 116
Mira Costa High School Mira Costa High School Peter Neal '16 5 5 7 10 2 11 8 6 3 12 10 10 8 7 4 7 6 121
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Andrew Person '17 6 7 15 2 15 10 4 15 15 8 7 8 10 4 5 3 4 138
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School John Horton '17 8 10 13 8 14 3 12 3 5 3 14 9 14 13 3 9 7 148
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Jacob Rosenberg '16 11 8 8 6 5 16 15 11 13 14 13 7 5 9 2 5 1 149
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Carter Lynn '16 15 12 4 9 12 7 7 10 11 13 9 4 6 8 9 11 9 156
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Rhodes Garner '16 9 13 10 15 11 9 6 7 7 10 8 12 7 11 11 15 8 169
Long Beach Wilson High School Long Beach Wilson High School Ryan Schack '17 4 11 11 14 6 12 11 5 9 7 15 14 12 10 12 12 15 180
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Porter Killian '18 7 15 9 5 8 15 14 13 14 11 11 11 13 15 13 13 5 192
Lick-Wilmerding High School Lick-Wilmerding High School Parker Klebahn '17 14 14 14 16 13 8 9 8 12 4 6 15 15 12 8 14 13 195
Redwood High School Redwood High School Harry Schmidt '16 16 9 12 13 10 13 13 14 10 6 12 13 11 14 10 10 11 197
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Bobby Briggs '16 13 16 16 12 16 14 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 274

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  16 boats · 17 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Paul Didham '16Point Loma High School Pointers 217/172.916.59+3.6897th → 99th32.1<1%1.4 / 6.4
2Steven Leuck '16Point Loma High School Pointers 317/172.834.62+1.7996th → 99th12.32%3.5 / 6.5
3Sawyer Gibbs '16Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins 217/172.262.89+0.6288th → 97th2.220%5.9 / 7.9
4Braedon Baum '17Ventura High School17/171.312.42+1.1267th → 91st6.06%6.5 / 10.0
5Cole Baker '16Point Loma High School Pointers 117/172.622.77+0.1594th → 96th0.148%6.8 / 7.1
6Peter Neal '16Mira Costa High School17/172.282.55+0.2788th → 92nd0.436%7.1 / 7.8
7Andrew Person '17Newport Harbor High School17/171.561.80+0.2574th → 80th0.327%8.1 / 9.5
8John Horton '17Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 117/172.061.86−0.2084th → 81st0.357%8.7 / 8.3
9Jacob Rosenberg '16Sage Hill School Lightning 217/172.091.69−0.4084th → 77th1.059%8.8 / 8.3
10Carter Lynn '16Cathedral Catholic High School17/171.301.98+0.6967th → 83rd2.832%9.2 / 10.1
11Rhodes Garner '16Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 317/172.411.57−0.8491st → 74th5.187%9.9 / 7.5
12Ryan Schack '17Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins 117/171.411.37−0.0470th → 68th0.063%10.6 / 9.8
13Porter Killian '18Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity 217/172.281.03−1.2588th → 59th11.994%11.3 / 7.8
14Parker Klebahn '17Lick-Wilmerding High School17/171.141.10−0.0462nd → 61st0.067%11.5 / 10.4
15Harry Schmidt '16Redwood High School17/171.891.27−0.6281st → 66th2.890%11.6 / 8.8
16Bobby Briggs '16Sage Hill School Lightning 117/171.42-0.11−1.5371st → 19th4.3>99%16.1 / 9.8

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1009.0 hPa

What this breeze does at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at U.S. Sailing Center Long Beach: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →