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Raritan Series FLEET Race 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 11 8 19
2 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 13 9 22
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 4 19 23
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 12 12 24
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 22 6 28
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 12 30 42
7 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 30 16 46
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 14 33 47
9 Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 31 18 49
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 24 28 52
11 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 31 25 56
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 33 31 64
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 1 1 4 Margot Murray '17
Sarah Elia '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 3 4 4 11 Mark Freidin '16
William Przedpelski '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 6 5 12 Thomas Quinn '18
Samantha Owens '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 7 2 3 12 Shannon Groskoph '17
Natalie Herr '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 6 5 2 13 Juliana Marino '16 [1-3]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [1-2]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 5 3 6 14 Danny Kane '16
Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 8 7 7 22 Liam Dwyer '17
Katharine Srere '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 4 9 11 24 Marisa Marino '17 [1-3]
Olivia Rondepierre '17 [1-2]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [3]
Panthers 2 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 9 12 9 30
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes DNS 8 10 31
Panthers 1 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 DNS 10 8 31
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 10 11 12 33 Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1-3]
Jenna Huffman '16 [1-2]
Olivia Rondepierre '17 [3]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 2 2 6 Patrick Murray '19
Katharine Srere '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 3 4 1 8 William Lusty '19
Serena Chmelar '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 1 1 7 9 Juliana Marino '16 [1-2]
Marisa Marino '17 [3]
Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 3 3 12 Nicholas Bergmann '17 [1, 3]
Mack Totman '19 [2]
Mack Totman '19 [1, 3]
Nicholas Bergmann '17 [2]
Panthers 2 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 5 5 6 16
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 8 6 4 18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 7 7 5 19 Evan Hybl '19
Liz Colao '19
Panthers 1 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 4 12 9 25
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 9 11 8 28 Jack Gallagher '19 [1-3]
Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 10 10 10 30 Malcolm Harrison '19
Georgia Shankar '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 11 8 12 31 Grace Evans '17
Addison Walker '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 DNS 9 11 33 John Alvarez '18
Mia Chmelar '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3999
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes101010
Panthers 1Panthers 1 Panthers 1111111
Panthers 2Panthers 2 Panthers 2121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 6666

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3999
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes101010
Panthers 1Panthers 1 Panthers 1111111
Panthers 2Panthers 2 Panthers 2121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 6666

Conditions — 09/15/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1026.0 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 4.6 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover7% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1026.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →