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Raritan Series FLEET Race2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 7 10 17
2 Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 10 7 17
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 15 7 22
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 16 7 23
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 8 25 33
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 23 15 38
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 20 24 44
8 Panthers Panthers Panthers 23 24 47
9 Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 26 26 52
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 27 26 53
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 27 28 55
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 2 4 1 7 Thomas Quinn '18
Serena Chmelar '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 1 3 4 8 Mark Freidin '16
William Przedpelski '17
Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 5 2 3 10
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 3 10 2 15 Juliana Marino '16
Jenna Huffman '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 4 7 5 16 Margot Murray '17
Sarah Elia '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 7 6 7 20 Danny Kane '16
Natalie Herr '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 6 5 DNS 23 Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Mack Totman '19 [3]
Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3]
Panthers Panthers Panthers 10 1 DNS 23
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes DNS 8 6 26
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 8 11 8 27 Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19
Addison Walker '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 9 9 9 27 Olivia Rondepierre '17
Jillian Puglisi '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 1 3 3 7
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 2 4 1 7 Marisa Marino '17
Jenna Huffman '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 3 2 2 7 Shannon Groskoph '17
Katharine Srere '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 1 5 10 William Lusty '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 5 6 4 15 Mack Totman '19
Liz Colao '19
Panthers Panthers Panthers 7 10 7 24
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 9 7 8 24 Patrick Murray '19
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 10 5 10 25 Evan Hybl '19
Samantha Owens '18
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 6 8 DNF 26
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 8 9 9 26 Grace Evans '17
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 11 11 6 28 Jack Gallagher '19
Andrew Ziegler '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3888
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes101010
PanthersPanthers Panthers111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5555
Blue DevilsBlue Devils Blue Devils121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3888
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes101010
PanthersPanthers Panthers111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5555
Blue DevilsBlue Devils Blue Devils121212

Conditions — 09/22/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1024.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From NE (55°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1024.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.27 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →