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Raritan Series FLEET Race3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 4 2 6
2 Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 8 4 12
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 12 14
4 Cougars 1 Cougars 1 Cougars 1 12 8 20
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 11 10 21
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 13 13 26
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 18 10 28
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 12 18 30
9 Panthers Panthers Panthers 16 17 33
10 Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 18 16 34
11 Cougars 3 Cougars 3 Cougars 3 19 25 44
12 Cougars 2 Cougars 2 Cougars 2 23 22 45
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 1 1 2 Thomas Quinn '18
Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 2 4 Margot Murray '17
Sarah Elia '16
Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 4 4 8
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 6 5 11 Shannon Groskoph '17
Natalie Herr '17
Cougars 1 Cougars 1 Cougars 1 3 9 12
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 9 3 12 Liam Dwyer '17
William Przedpelski '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 8 13 Mack Totman '19
Georgia Shankar '19
Panthers Panthers Panthers 10 6 16
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 7 11 18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 8 10 18 Danny Kane '16
Serena Chmelar '18
Cougars 3 Cougars 3 Cougars 3 12 7 19
Cougars 2 Cougars 2 Cougars 2 11 12 23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 1 2 Margot Murray '17
Serena Chmelar '18
Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 2 2 4
Cougars 1 Cougars 1 Cougars 1 5 3 8
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 4 6 10 Shannon Groskoph '17
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 4 10 Mark Freidin '16
Danny Kane '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 7 5 12 Malcolm Harrison '19
Nicholas Bergmann '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 3 10 13 Evan Hybl '19
Leo Briant '19
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 8 8 16
Panthers Panthers Panthers 10 7 17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 9 9 18 Liam Dwyer '17
Liz Colao '19
Cougars 2 Cougars 2 Cougars 2 11 11 22
Cougars 3 Cougars 3 Cougars 3 DNF 12 25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Cougars 1Cougars 1 Cougars 177
Cougars 2Cougars 2 Cougars 288
Cougars 3Cougars 3 Cougars 399
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes1212
PanthersPanthers Panthers1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 666
Blue DevilsBlue Devils Blue Devils1010

Division B

Team1B2B
Cougars 1Cougars 1 Cougars 177
Cougars 2Cougars 2 Cougars 288
Cougars 3Cougars 3 Cougars 399
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes1212
PanthersPanthers Panthers1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 666
Blue DevilsBlue Devils Blue Devils1010

Conditions — 09/29/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From SE (145°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.8 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.24 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+1.10 ± 0.54)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →