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Raritan Series FLEET Race5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 14 12 26
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 12 15 27
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 20 8 28
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 12 17 29
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 12 18 30
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 15 16 31
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 7 24 31
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 16 20 36
9 Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 28 25 53
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 36 17 53
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 29 28 57
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 34 35 69
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 3 2 2 7 Juliana Marino '16
Jenna Huffman '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 4 4 4 12 Patrick Murray '19 [1-3]
William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 5 1 6 12 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-3]
Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Nicholas Bergmann '17 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 6 3 3 12 William Lusty '19
Sarah Elia '16
Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 1 8 5 14
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 2 6 7 15 Evan Hybl '19
Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 8 7 1 16 Mark Freidin '16
Samantha Owens '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 7 5 8 20 Shannon Groskoph '17 [1-3]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Natalie Herr '17 [3]
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 9 9 10 28 Julia Bay '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 10 10 9 29
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 11 12 11 34
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers DNS 11 12 36 Grace Vega '16
Michael Rodriquez '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 3 4 8 Shannon Groskoph '17
Natalie Herr '17
Blue Devils Blue Devils Blue Devils 8 2 2 12
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 DNS 1 1 15 Thomas Quinn '18
Nicholas Bergmann '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 2 4 10 16 Mack Totman '19 [1-2]
Evan Hybl '19 [3]
Georgia Shankar '19 [1-2]
Leo Briant '19 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 4 8 5 17 Patrick Murray '19
Liz Colao '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 9 5 3 17 Michael Rodriquez '16
Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 3 9 6 18 William Lusty '19 [1-3]
Serena Chmelar '18 [1-2]
Sarah Elia '16 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 7 6 7 20 Mark Freidin '16
Samantha Owens '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 6 10 8 24 Juliana Marino '16
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 5 11 9 25 Julia Bay '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 10 7 11 28
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 11 12 12 35
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3999
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes121212
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 6666
Blue DevilsBlue Devils Blue Devils111111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Juliana Marino '16 Jenna Huffman '16
Cougars 2 Juliana Marino '16 Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Julia Bay '18
Mountain Lakes Julia Bay '18
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Grace Vega '16 Michael Rodriquez '16
Panthers Michael Rodriquez '16 Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Thomas Quinn '18 [1-3] Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Nicholas Bergmann '17 [3]
Hilltoppers 1 Thomas Quinn '18 Nicholas Bergmann '17
Summit High School Summit High School William Lusty '19 Sarah Elia '16
Hilltoppers 2 William Lusty '19 [1-3] Serena Chmelar '18 [1-2]
Sarah Elia '16 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Mark Freidin '16 Samantha Owens '18
Hilltoppers 3 Mark Freidin '16 Samantha Owens '18
Summit High School Summit High School Shannon Groskoph '17 [1-3] Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Natalie Herr '17 [3]
Hilltoppers 4 Shannon Groskoph '17 Natalie Herr '17
Summit High School Summit High School Evan Hybl '19 Leo Briant '19
Hilltoppers 5 Mack Totman '19 [1-2]
Evan Hybl '19 [3]		 Georgia Shankar '19 [1-2]
Leo Briant '19 [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Patrick Murray '19 [1-3] William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3]
Hilltoppers 6 Patrick Murray '19 Liz Colao '19

Conditions — 10/13/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1000.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From SW (226°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1000.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →