SAISA Charleston Intersectional

HostCollege of Charleston
Date11/07/2015
TypeNational Invitational
BoatZ420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Clear Falls High School	Knights	40	47	87
2	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	35	63	98
3	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	60	40	100
4	Wando High School	Wando Warriors	53	55	108
5	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	43	66	109
6	Antilles School	Hurricanes	69	40	109
7	Beaufort High School	Varsity	66	79	145
8	Edmund Burke School	Bengals	83	76	159
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	71	100	171
10	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	77	96	173
11	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	147	97	244
12	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	132	119	251
13	Ashley Hall	Panthers	123	134	257
14	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	132	135	267
15	Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	117	157	274
16	SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA one	146	132	278
17	Sarasota Military Academy	Eagles	165	132	297
18	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	153	151	304

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	2	2	3	3	1	4	8	3	6	3	35	Shawn Harvey '17 Adrianne Han '16
Clear Falls High School	Knights	10	1	5	6	4	1	1	1	5	6	40	Wiley Rogers '18 Hunter Skinner '16
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	1	6	4	1	2	7	9	10	2	1	43	Sophia Reineke '17 [1-10] Max Gillette '16 [1-4, 9-10] Clyde Wright '16 [5-8]
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	4	3	1	5	5	6	2	7	8	12	53	Austin Ando '17 [1-10] Caroline Main '18 [1-8] Austin Googer '17 [9-10]
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	5	8	8	4	11	2	7	5	3	7	60	Brandon Kirby '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cameron Grubb '16 [3-4, 7-8] Alex Commette '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	3	18	2	2	10	3	10	2	7	9	66	Walter Gnann '17 [1-10] Jacob Lawson '18 [1-8] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [9-10]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	DSQ	4	6	9	9	5	4	8	1	4	69	Thomas Walden '16 [1-10] Paige Clark '16 [1-8] Amanda Engeman '16 [9-10]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	7	13	9	10	6	9	5	6	4	2	71	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	9	7	7	8	3	8	6	9	10	10	77	Kyle Mergenthaler '16 Mackie Conner '16
Edmund Burke School	Bengals	6	5	13	11	13	11	3	4	9	8	83	Casey Cabot '17 Talia Frank '17
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	11	12	11	14	8	10	12	11	14	14	117	G. Alex White '16 David Robertson '17
Ashley Hall	Panthers	17	10	18	7	12	12	16	13	13	5	123	Julianna Skoglund '19 [1-2] Elizabeth Walters '16 [3-10] Mary Hope Chakeris '18 [1-2]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	8	11	14	DSQ	17	14	11	12	15	11	132	Croix Farmer '17 [1-8] Caroline Puckette '16 [9-10] Caroline Puckette '16 [1-4] Bobby Baker '18 [5-10]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	13	14	10	12	7	17	17	15	12	15	132	Hayden Easom '17 [1-6, 9-10] Zachary Miller '16 [7-8] Annie Mollman '17 [1-2, 5-6] Zachary Miller '16 [3-4, 9-10] Hayden Easom '17 [7-8]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA one	14	17	12	16	16	13	13	14	18	13	146	Sarah Deloach '17 [1-10] Fiona Lewis '16 [1-3] Mccormick Emge '18 [4-5] Caroline Keinath '17 [6-8] Bridget Conelly '17 [9-10]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	12	9	17	15	14	15	15	16	16	18	147	Peter Buyck '18 [1-10] Ac Gaillard '16 [1-8] William Chapman '18 [9-10]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	16	15	16	17	15	16	14	17	11	16	153	Matthew Chenard '17 [1-10] Ben Brown '18 [1-2] Zac Brown '18 [3-4] Declan O'Dell '18 [5-8] Britton Durst '19 [9-10]
Sarasota Military Academy	Eagles	15	16	15	13	18	18	18	18	17	17	165	Hayley Cantolino '17 Matt Pelisek '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Antilles School	Hurricanes	2	8	1	9	3	3	6	3	1	4	40	Colin Brego '16 [1-6] Sam Morrell '17 [7-10] Graceann Nicolosi '16 [1-6] Amanda Engeman '16 [7-8] Reid Mchenry '16 [9-10]
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	5	2	4	5	1	2	7	2	10	2	40	Ian Macdiarmid '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Severin Gramm '19 [3-4, 7-8] Sammi Spritz '16 [1-2, 5-6] Delaney Brown '16 [3-4, 7-10]
Clear Falls High School	Knights	3	3	12	1	2	1	1	4	RAF	1	47	Dane Byerly '16 [1-10] Lauren Vande Hei '16 [1-8] Laura Masterson '16 [9-10]
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	8	5	2	8	9	5	2	1	6	9	55	Hunter Moore '16 [1-10] James Renneker '18 [1-8] Peter Creed '16 [9-10]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	7	10	7	4	7	7	3	5	7	6	63	Tucker Weed '18 [1-2, 7-10] Paul Lobree '18 [3-6] Vera Mariani '16 [1-2, 7-8] Delilah Lubarsky '17 [3-4] Alex Sidi '17 [5-6] Jax Malloy '16 [9-10]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	4	9	8	2	5	4	14	9	8	3	66	Mack Fox '16 [1-4] Conner Correll '18 [5-10] Dae Kelly '17 [1-8] Brian Buckley '17 [9-10]
Edmund Burke School	Bengals	10	1	3	3	10	6	17	12	9	5	76	Tye Rubin '17 [1-10] Genevieve Dickinson '17 [1-8] River Carson '17 [9-10]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	1	6	6	13	6	9	10	8	5	15	79	Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-10] Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-8] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [9-10]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	6	15	5	7	12	12	9	7	11	12	96	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-10] Jason Perryman '17 [1-8] Kelly Milliken '16 [9-10]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	9	4	10	6	8	15	11	13	13	8	97	Joey Chomyn '19 Robert Turner '18
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	13	16	13	11	4	10	15	6	2	10	100	Jp Burgess '16 [1-2, 7-8] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-6, 9-10] Mark Iorio '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	11	12	15	DSQ	17	8	5	14	4	14	119	Peter Reckamp '16 [1-2, 6-10] Owen Hall '16 [3-5] Gaby Ahlstrom '16 [1-2, 5-8] Peter Reckamp '16 [3-4] Owen Hall '16 [9-10]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA one	14	14	11	12	11	18	12	10	14	16	132	Frances Hart '19 [1-3, 9-10] Jonah Paquette '17 [4-8] Jonah Paquette '17 [1-3] Keara Paquette '17 [4-8] Noah Rigsby '16 [9-10]
Sarasota Military Academy	Eagles	16	13	14	16	15	16	13	15	3	11	132	Nate Hagen '16 Molly Cantolino '18
Ashley Hall	Panthers	17	7	16	17	18	13	16	11	12	7	134	Ann Sheridan '18 Elizabeth Ouzts '17
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	15	11	9	10	16	17	8	17	DNF	13	135	Jordan Newland '18 [1-10] Britton Durst '19 [1-2, 7-8] Nathan Farmer '18 [3-6] Megan Fetterly '19 [9-10]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	12	17	18	14	13	11	18	16	15	17	151	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-10] Courtney Weidinger '17 [1-4] Evan Chenard '20 [5-8] Declan O'Dell '18 [9-10]
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	18	18	17	15	14	14	4	DSQ	DNS	DNS	157	Sam Finlay '17 Gareth Ferguson '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Antilles School Hurricanes	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Ashley Hall Panthers	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA one	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Clear Falls High School Knights	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Edmund Burke School Bengals	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Loyola Academy Ramblers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Sarasota Military Academy Eagles	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Wando High School Wando Warriors	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Antilles School Hurricanes	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Ashley Hall Panthers	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA one	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Clear Falls High School Knights	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Edmund Burke School Bengals	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Loyola Academy Ramblers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Sarasota Military Academy Eagles	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Wando High School Wando Warriors	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Antilles School	Thomas Walden '16 [1-10]	Paige Clark '16 [1-8] Amanda Engeman '16 [9-10]
Hurricanes	Colin Brego '16 [1-6] Sam Morrell '17 [7-10]	Graceann Nicolosi '16 [1-6] Amanda Engeman '16 [7-8] Reid Mchenry '16 [9-10]
Ashley Hall	Julianna Skoglund '19 [1-2] Elizabeth Walters '16 [3-10]	Mary Hope Chakeris '18 [1-2]
Panthers	Ann Sheridan '18	Elizabeth Ouzts '17
Beaufort High School	Walter Gnann '17 [1-10]	Jacob Lawson '18 [1-8] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [9-10]
Varsity	Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-10]	Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-8] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [9-10]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts	Jp Burgess '16 [1-2, 7-8] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-6, 9-10]	Mark Iorio '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Clear Falls High School	Wiley Rogers '18	Hunter Skinner '16
Knights	Dane Byerly '16 [1-10]	Lauren Vande Hei '16 [1-8] Laura Masterson '16 [9-10]
Durham School of The Arts	G. Alex White '16	David Robertson '17
Varsity	Sam Finlay '17	Gareth Ferguson '19
Edmund Burke School	Casey Cabot '17	Talia Frank '17
Bengals	Tye Rubin '17 [1-10]	Genevieve Dickinson '17 [1-8] River Carson '17 [9-10]
James Island Charter High School	Croix Farmer '17 [1-8] Caroline Puckette '16 [9-10]	Caroline Puckette '16 [1-4] Bobby Baker '18 [5-10]
Varsity	Jordan Newland '18 [1-10]	Britton Durst '19 [1-2, 7-8] Nathan Farmer '18 [3-6] Megan Fetterly '19 [9-10]
Lake Norman High School	Matthew Chenard '17 [1-10]	Ben Brown '18 [1-2] Zac Brown '18 [3-4] Declan O'Dell '18 [5-8] Britton Durst '19 [9-10]
Wildcats	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-10]	Courtney Weidinger '17 [1-4] Evan Chenard '20 [5-8] Declan O'Dell '18 [9-10]
Loyola Academy	Hayden Easom '17 [1-6, 9-10] Zachary Miller '16 [7-8]	Annie Mollman '17 [1-2, 5-6] Zachary Miller '16 [3-4, 9-10] Hayden Easom '17 [7-8]
Ramblers	Peter Reckamp '16 [1-2, 6-10] Owen Hall '16 [3-5]	Gaby Ahlstrom '16 [1-2, 5-8] Peter Reckamp '16 [3-4] Owen Hall '16 [9-10]
Oxbridge Academy	Brandon Kirby '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cameron Grubb '16 [3-4, 7-8]	Alex Commette '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
ThunderWolves	Ian Macdiarmid '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Severin Gramm '19 [3-4, 7-8]	Sammi Spritz '16 [1-2, 5-6] Delaney Brown '16 [3-4, 7-10]
Pine Lake Prep	Kyle Mergenthaler '16	Mackie Conner '16
Varsity	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-10]	Jason Perryman '17 [1-8] Kelly Milliken '16 [9-10]
Porter-Gaud School	Peter Buyck '18 [1-10]	Ac Gaillard '16 [1-8] William Chapman '18 [9-10]
Varsity	Joey Chomyn '19	Robert Turner '18
Ransom Everglades School	Shawn Harvey '17	Adrianne Han '16
Raiders	Tucker Weed '18 [1-2, 7-10] Paul Lobree '18 [3-6]	Vera Mariani '16 [1-2, 7-8] Delilah Lubarsky '17 [3-4] Alex Sidi '17 [5-6] Jax Malloy '16 [9-10]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	Sarah Deloach '17 [1-10]	Fiona Lewis '16 [1-3] Mccormick Emge '18 [4-5] Caroline Keinath '17 [6-8] Bridget Conelly '17 [9-10]
SOA one	Frances Hart '19 [1-3, 9-10] Jonah Paquette '17 [4-8]	Jonah Paquette '17 [1-3] Keara Paquette '17 [4-8] Noah Rigsby '16 [9-10]
Sarasota Military Academy	Hayley Cantolino '17	Matt Pelisek '17
Eagles	Nate Hagen '16	Molly Cantolino '18
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Sophia Reineke '17 [1-10]	Max Gillette '16 [1-4, 9-10] Clyde Wright '16 [5-8]
Raiders	Mack Fox '16 [1-4] Conner Correll '18 [5-10]	Dae Kelly '17 [1-8] Brian Buckley '17 [9-10]
Wando High School	Austin Ando '17 [1-10]	Caroline Main '18 [1-8] Austin Googer '17 [9-10]
Wando Warriors	Hunter Moore '16 [1-10]	James Renneker '18 [1-8] Peter Creed '16 [9-10]

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 83% · Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 5.7 kn

Gusts to 14.8 kn

From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn · NE 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at College of Charleston: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.00 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at College of Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at College of Charleston, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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