SAISA SP1 JV

HostDavis Island Youth Sailing
Date09/26/2015
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	16	20	36
2	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	29	12	41
3	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	23	28	51
4	Eustis High School	Eustis 2	27	24	51
5	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	26	37	63
6	Lake Highland Preparatory School	JV	36	35	71
7	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	32	39	71
8	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	37	35	72
9	Lakewood High School	JV	36	38	74
10	Compass Rose Academy	Compass Rose Academy	50	32	82
11	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	52	43	95
12	Eustis High School	Eustis 1	51	53	104
13	Pine View School	Pine View JV	43	62	105

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	2	2	2	6	4	16	Severin Gramm '19 Delaney Brown '16
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	5	3	9	4	2	23	Charlie Curtis '17 Dominic Canonico '19
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	12	1	5	5	3	26	Hunter Sorensen '17 Oliver Stabley '18
Eustis High School	Eustis 2	10	7	8	1	1	27	Robert Newland '21 [1-2] Chris Nagy '16 [3-5] Matthew Smith '19 [1-2]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	3	4	3	9	10	29	Celine De Araujo '18 [1-2] Julia Johansson '19 [3-4] Bernat Miro '19 [5] Gabi Restrepo '16 [1-2] Delilah Lubarsky '17 [3-4] Leo Menninger '18 [5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	4	5	1	8	DSQ	32	Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1-5] Ryan O'Neil '19 [1-2] Caroline Weintraub '20 [3-4] Sage Farley '16 [5]
Lake Highland Preparatory School	JV	1	6	12	11	6	36	Jack Glenn '17 Andrew Witter '20
Lakewood High School	JV	6	8	4	7	11	36	Callista Hopkins '19 Ethan Myott '17
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	11	10	7	2	7	37	Nick Ochalek '17 [1-5] Trevor Tigges '17 [1-4] Nathan Welmaker '20 [5]
Pine View School	Pine View JV	13	13	6	3	8	43	Reid Devitt '16 [1-2] Ciara Dorsay '17 [3-4] Garrett Lawlor '16 [5] Matthew Mason '19 [1-4] Isabella Lemole '16 [5]
Compass Rose Academy	Compass Rose Academy	9	11	13	12	5	50	Clara Poffenberger '17 Brooke Papa '16
Eustis High School	Eustis 1	7	9	11	10	DNS	51	Sam Pearl '18 [1-5] Leah Harper '18 [1-2] Ava Moring '21 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	8	12	10	13	9	52	Chris Brown '17 Olivia Mcintosh '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	3	4	1	3	1	12	Joe Bolduc '19 [1-5] Mcleod Kennedy '19 [1-2] Maddie Sharp '18 [3-5]
Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	2	1	4	6	7	20	Alec Sullivan '17 [1-2] Alex Commette '17 [3-5] Alex Commette '17 [1-2] Lily Turner '17 [3-5]
Eustis High School	Eustis 2	10	2	2	7	3	24	Leah Harper '18 [1-5] Ava Moring '21 [1-2] Robert Newland '21 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 2	6	11	7	2	2	28	Brandon Geller '19 Audrey Perry '17
Compass Rose Academy	Compass Rose Academy	7	5	11	4	5	32	Samuel Tobio '16 Lily Schneider '19
Lake Highland Preparatory School	JV	4	10	6	9	6	35	Sean Toro '19 [1-5] Colin Figley '19 [1-4] Chandler Schumacher '19 [5]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	9	6	10	1	9	35	Emily Bornarth '20 [1-5] Sarah Tigges '19 [1-2] Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-5]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	5	9	8	5	10	37	Dylan Brazee '17 Chandler Scott '19
Lakewood High School	JV	1	12	3	11	11	38	Hanna Brydon '17 Alex Pearson '18
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	11	7	9	8	4	39	Anika Boicheff '20 [1-5] Will Kuster '17 [1-2] Zachery Ofenloch '19 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers 1	12	8	5	10	8	43	Jack Keel '16 Alex Mccree '18
Eustis High School	Eustis 1	8	3	DNF	DNS	DNS	53	Chris Nagy '16 [1-2] Robert Newland '21 [3-5] Matthew Smith '19 [1-2] Ava Moring '21 [3-5]
Pine View School	Pine View JV	13	13	12	12	12	62	Finn Johnson '19 William Giraldo '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Compass Rose Academy Compass Rose Academy	32	32	32	32	32
Eustis High School Eustis 1	35	35	35	35	35
Eustis High School Eustis 2	36	36	36	36	36
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	37	37	37	37	37
Lake Highland Preparatory School JV	40	40	40	40	40
Lakewood High School JV	31	31	31	31	31
Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves	30	30	30	30	30
Pine View School Pine View JV	34	34	34	34	34
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	13	13	13	13	13
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	14	14	14	14	14
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	38	38	38	38	38
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	33	33	33	33	33
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	39	39	39	39	39

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Compass Rose Academy Compass Rose Academy	32	32	32	32	32
Eustis High School Eustis 1	35	35	35	35	35
Eustis High School Eustis 2	36	36	36	36	36
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	37	37	37	37	37
Lake Highland Preparatory School JV	40	40	40	40	40
Lakewood High School JV	31	31	31	31	31
Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves	30	30	30	30	30
Pine View School Pine View JV	34	34	34	34	34
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	13	13	13	13	13
H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	14	14	14	14	14
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	38	38	38	38	38
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	33	33	33	33	33
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	39	39	39	39	39

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Compass Rose Academy	Clara Poffenberger '17	Brooke Papa '16
Compass Rose Academy	Samuel Tobio '16	Lily Schneider '19
Eustis High School	Sam Pearl '18 [1-5]	Leah Harper '18 [1-2] Ava Moring '21 [3-5]
Eustis 1	Chris Nagy '16 [1-2] Robert Newland '21 [3-5]	Matthew Smith '19 [1-2] Ava Moring '21 [3-5]
Eustis High School	Robert Newland '21 [1-2] Chris Nagy '16 [3-5]	Matthew Smith '19 [1-2]
Eustis 2	Leah Harper '18 [1-5]	Ava Moring '21 [1-2] Robert Newland '21 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Chris Brown '17	Olivia Mcintosh '18
Panthers 1	Jack Keel '16	Alex Mccree '18
H. B. Plant High School	Charlie Curtis '17	Dominic Canonico '19
Panthers 2	Brandon Geller '19	Audrey Perry '17
Jensen Beach High School	Hunter Sorensen '17	Oliver Stabley '18
Falcons	Dylan Brazee '17	Chandler Scott '19
Lake Highland Preparatory School	Jack Glenn '17	Andrew Witter '20
JV	Sean Toro '19 [1-5]	Colin Figley '19 [1-4] Chandler Schumacher '19 [5]
Lakewood High School	Callista Hopkins '19	Ethan Myott '17
JV	Hanna Brydon '17	Alex Pearson '18
Oxbridge Academy	Severin Gramm '19	Delaney Brown '16
Thunderwolves	Alec Sullivan '17 [1-2] Alex Commette '17 [3-5]	Alex Commette '17 [1-2] Lily Turner '17 [3-5]
Pine View School	Reid Devitt '16 [1-2] Ciara Dorsay '17 [3-4] Garrett Lawlor '16 [5]	Matthew Mason '19 [1-4] Isabella Lemole '16 [5]
Pine View JV	Finn Johnson '19	William Giraldo '19
Ransom Everglades School	Celine De Araujo '18 [1-2] Julia Johansson '19 [3-4] Bernat Miro '19 [5]	Gabi Restrepo '16 [1-2] Delilah Lubarsky '17 [3-4] Leo Menninger '18 [5]
Raiders	Joe Bolduc '19 [1-5]	Mcleod Kennedy '19 [1-2] Maddie Sharp '18 [3-5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1-5]	Ryan O'Neil '19 [1-2] Caroline Weintraub '20 [3-4] Sage Farley '16 [5]
Chargers	Anika Boicheff '20 [1-5]	Will Kuster '17 [1-2] Zachery Ofenloch '19 [3-5]
South Fork High School	Nick Ochalek '17 [1-5]	Trevor Tigges '17 [1-4] Nathan Welmaker '20 [5]
SF BULLDOGS	Emily Bornarth '20 [1-5]	Sarah Tigges '19 [1-2] Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-5]

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 32% · Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

84°F

↑ 93°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.2 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 13.6 kn

From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity32% Pressure1010.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Davis Island Youth Sailing: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.32 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Davis Island Youth Sailing by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Davis Island Youth Sailing: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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