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South Points 5 (Junior Varsity)

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 18 18 36
2 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 23 30 53
3 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 38 17 55
4 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 33 25 58
5 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School JV Black 19 46 MRP 65 MRP
6 Lakewood High School Lakewood High School JV 41 51 92
7 Orangewood Christian Orangewood Christian Orangewood Christian 51 MRP 57 MRP 108 MRP
8 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 61 50 111
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 1 OCS 2 1 1 3 18 Julia Johansson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Celine De Araujo '18 [3-4, 7]
Jax Malloy '16 [1-2]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [3-4]
Maddie Sharp '18 [5-6]
Kat Cochran '18 [7]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School JV Black 5 3 1 1 3 2 4 19 Brandon Geller '19
Dominic Canonico '19
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 6 6 2 3 2 3 1 23 Emily Bornarth '20 [1-7]
Griffin Pollis '19 [1-4]
Sarah Tigges '19 [5-7]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 4 2 3 OCS 5 5 5 33 Alex Commette '17 [1-7]
Derek Pearson '17 [1-4]
Finn Kennedy '17 [5-7]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 7 5 5 OCS 4 6 2 38 Dylan Brazee '17
Chandler Scott '19
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School JV 3 7 6 5 7 7 6 41 No Show
No Show
Orangewood Christian Orangewood Christian Orangewood Christian 2 4 4 4 6 4 7 51 MRP
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 8 8 DNS OCS DNS DNS DNS 61 Lucas Laya '19
Logan Katz '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 17 Hunter Sorensen '17
Colin Brauchler '16
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 1 3 1 6 2 4 18 Sarah Kirke '17 [1-2, 7]
Iker Belausteguigoitia '16 [3-4]
Michael Macrae '19 [5-6]
David Lerner '16 [1-2, 7]
Alex Lerner '18 [3-4]
Leo Menninger '18 [5-6]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 2 2 6 3 2 5 5 25 Alec Sullivan '17
Reese Kelly '18
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 5 3 1 5 5 4 7 30 Emily Bornarth '20 [1-7]
Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Welmaker '20 [3-4, 7]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School JV Black 3 5 2 4 4 6 2 46 MRP Crista Abberger '19
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 7 6 8 6 7 7 OCS 50 Timothy Kaplan '16
Logan Katz '17
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School JV 8 7 7 7 8 8 6 51 Hanna Brydon '17 [1-7]
Stephen Knaust '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Friel '17 [3-4, 7]
Orangewood Christian Orangewood Christian Orangewood Christian 6 DNF 5 8 3 3 3 57 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders27272727272727
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons25252525252525
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School JV29292929292929
Orangewood ChristianOrangewood Christian Orangewood Christian23232323232323
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves30303030303030
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School JV Black28282828282828
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders24242424242424
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS26262626262626

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders27272727272727
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons25252525252525
Lakewood High SchoolLakewood High School JV29292929292929
Orangewood ChristianOrangewood Christian Orangewood Christian23232323232323
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves30303030303030
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School JV Black28282828282828
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders24242424242424
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS26262626262626
School / Team SkipperCrew
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Lucas Laya '19 Logan Katz '17
Raiders Timothy Kaplan '16 Logan Katz '17
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Brandon Geller '19 Dominic Canonico '19
JV Black Crista Abberger '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Dylan Brazee '17 Chandler Scott '19
Falcons Hunter Sorensen '17 Colin Brauchler '16
Lakewood High School Lakewood High School No Show No Show
JV Hanna Brydon '17 [1-7] Stephen Knaust '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Friel '17 [3-4, 7]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Alex Commette '17 [1-7] Derek Pearson '17 [1-4]
Finn Kennedy '17 [5-7]
ThunderWolves Alec Sullivan '17 Reese Kelly '18
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Julia Johansson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Celine De Araujo '18 [3-4, 7]		 Jax Malloy '16 [1-2]
Gabi Restrepo '16 [3-4]
Maddie Sharp '18 [5-6]
Kat Cochran '18 [7]
Raiders Sarah Kirke '17 [1-2, 7]
Iker Belausteguigoitia '16 [3-4]
Michael Macrae '19 [5-6]		 David Lerner '16 [1-2, 7]
Alex Lerner '18 [3-4]
Leo Menninger '18 [5-6]
South Fork High School South Fork High School Emily Bornarth '20 [1-7] Griffin Pollis '19 [1-4]
Sarah Tigges '19 [5-7]
SF BULLDOGS Emily Bornarth '20 [1-7] Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Welmaker '20 [3-4, 7]

Conditions — 01/09/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1012.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ransom Everglades: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.41 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ransom Everglades by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Ransom Everglades, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →