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Turkey Bowl Invitational

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 15 15
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 23 23
3 Blue Devils 1 Blue Devils 1 Blue Devils 1 26 26
4 Summit High School Summit High School White 2 30 30
5 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 33 33
6 Summit High School Summit High School White 1 51 51
7 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 59 59
8 Summit High School Summit High School Maroon 61 61
9 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 67 67
10 Summit High School Summit High School Gold 75 75
11 Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 2 91 91
12 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 97 97
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 4 2 15 Emily Haig '17
Burke Flynn '18
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 4 3 3 5 3 2 2 1 23 Dana Haig '18
Michael Scales '16
Blue Devils 1 Blue Devils 1 Blue Devils 1 2 4 4 3 6 3 1 3 26
Summit High School Summit High School White 2 1 2 2 6 5 4 6 4 30 William Lusty '19
Serena Chmelar '18
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 5 5 6 2 1 5 3 6 33 Tom Green '19
Sam Westby '16
Summit High School Summit High School White 1 7 8 5 9 4 8 5 5 51 Mack Totman '19 [1-8]
Leo Briant '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Parenti '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 6 6 8 4 7 9 10 9 59 Grace Vega '16
Michael Rodriquez '16
Summit High School Summit High School Maroon 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 61 Patrick Murray '19 [1-4]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [5-8]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Georgia Shankar '19 [3-8]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 9 9 10 7 9 6 7 10 67 Kevin Tang '19
Dan Rosario '19
Summit High School Summit High School Gold 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 75 Liz Colao '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Evan Hybl '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Mia Chmelar '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 2 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 91
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 12 11 11 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 97 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 111223344
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 222334455
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 31212112233
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 133445566
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 244556677
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 355667788
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Gold7788991010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Maroon66778899
Summit High SchoolSummit High School White 1889910101111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School White 299101011111212
Blue Devils 1Blue Devils 1 Blue Devils 110101111121211
Blue Devils 2Blue Devils 2 Blue Devils 2111112121122
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 Kevin Tang '19 Dan Rosario '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 Grace Vega '16 Michael Rodriquez '16
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 Tom Green '19 Sam Westby '16
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 Dana Haig '18 Michael Scales '16
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 3 Emily Haig '17 Burke Flynn '18
Summit High School Summit High School Gold Liz Colao '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Evan Hybl '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Mia Chmelar '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Maroon Patrick Murray '19 [1-4]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [5-8]		 Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Georgia Shankar '19 [3-8]
Summit High School Summit High School White 1 Mack Totman '19 [1-8] Leo Briant '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Parenti '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Summit High School Summit High School White 2 William Lusty '19 Serena Chmelar '18

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From WNW (299°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine4.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1016.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.35 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →