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2016-17 PCISA SoCal 1 Silver

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 2 13 13
2 Sea Kings 2 Sea Kings 2 Sea Kings 2 27 27
3 Sea Kings 3 Sea Kings 3 Sea Kings 3 33 33
4 The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 1 40 40
5 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2 44 44
6 Sailors 2 Sailors 2 Sailors 2 60 60
7 Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 2 62 62
8 Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks 2 63 63
9 Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks 1 78 78
10 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1 79 79
11 Sailors 1 Sailors 1 Sailors 1 80 80
12 Sea Kings 1 Sea Kings 1 Sea Kings 1 105 105
13 The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 3 106 106
14 JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 2 106 106
15 Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 3 112 112
16 JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 3 123 123
17 JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 1 131 131
18 Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 4 131 131
19 JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 4 138 138
20 Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 1 150 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 2 2 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 13 Piper Holthus '21
Burke Kanemasu '21
Sea Kings 2 Sea Kings 2 Sea Kings 2 4 5 5 3 3 2 2 3 27
Sea Kings 3 Sea Kings 3 Sea Kings 3 7 7 2 2 6 1 4 4 33
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 1 1 2 6 13 9 4 3 2 40 Claire Lester '19
Megan Mcglothlin '17
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2 6 4 3 6 7 3 8 7 44 Sarah Politiski '17
Gretchen Hohenstein '20
Sailors 2 Sailors 2 Sailors 2 5 3 9 8 10 8 6 11 60
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 2 3 13 7 5 11 6 9 8 62 Darcy Chung '20
Valentina Lin '20
Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks 2 8 6 4 4 8 13 5 15 63 Micky Munns '19
Alex Shapiro '19
Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks 1 12 11 8 7 4 15 11 10 78 Michael Fineman '21
Sophia Dornberg '21
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1 9 8 11 14 2 7 10 18 79 Samuel Bigelow '19
Sully Manning '19
Sailors 1 Sailors 1 Sailors 1 13 9 13 10 5 9 15 6 80
Sea Kings 1 Sea Kings 1 Sea Kings 1 11 17 12 12 13 11 17 12 105
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 3 10 14 10 9 12 18 19 14 106 Rocco Cappetta '20
Shaye Wattson '21
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 2 16 12 14 17 17 12 13 5 106 Ashley Facey '19
Meaghan Wagner '17
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 3 15 10 16 16 14 10 12 19 112 Joshua Cheadle '19
Austin Alexander '19
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 3 14 19 19 19 18 14 7 13 123 Connor Presley '19
Ian Sysyn '17
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 1 17 15 15 15 19 17 16 17 131 Andrew Domanskis '20
Devin Reiger '17
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 4 18 18 17 20 16 19 14 9 131 Ryan Simpson '19
Rowan Oliphant '20
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 4 19 16 18 11 20 20 18 16 138 Deven Douglas '19
Gordy Foerstel '19
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 1 20 20 20 18 15 16 20 DSQ 150 Daniel Gamini '19
Valentina Lin '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Sea Kings 1Sea Kings 1 Sea Kings 18484848484848484
Sea Kings 2Sea Kings 2 Sea Kings 28585858585858585
Sea Kings 3Sea Kings 3 Sea Kings 38383838383838383
JSerra Catholic High SchoolJSerra Catholic High School Lions 19393939393939393
JSerra Catholic High SchoolJSerra Catholic High School Lions 29292929292929292
JSerra Catholic High SchoolJSerra Catholic High School Lions 39191919191919191
JSerra Catholic High SchoolJSerra Catholic High School Lions 49090909090909090
Mater Dei High SchoolMater Dei High School Monarchs 19494949494949494
Mater Dei High SchoolMater Dei High School Monarchs 29595959595959595
Sailors 1Sailors 1 Sailors 19797979797979797
Sailors 2Sailors 2 Sailors 29696969696969696
Redondo Union High SchoolRedondo Union High School Sea Hawks 19999999999999999
Redondo Union High SchoolRedondo Union High School Sea Hawks 29898989898989898
Sage Hill SchoolSage Hill School Lightning 18686868686868686
Sage Hill SchoolSage Hill School Lightning 28787878787878787
Sage Hill SchoolSage Hill School Lightning 38989898989898989
Sage Hill SchoolSage Hill School Lightning 48888888888888888
The Bishop's SchoolThe Bishop's School Knights 11010101010101010
The Bishop's SchoolThe Bishop's School Knights 299999999
The Bishop's SchoolThe Bishop's School Knights 31313131313131313
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 1 Andrew Domanskis '20 Devin Reiger '17
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 2 Ashley Facey '19 Meaghan Wagner '17
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 3 Connor Presley '19 Ian Sysyn '17
JSerra Catholic High School JSerra Catholic High School Lions 4 Deven Douglas '19 Gordy Foerstel '19
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1 Samuel Bigelow '19 Sully Manning '19
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2 Sarah Politiski '17 Gretchen Hohenstein '20
Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks 1 Michael Fineman '21 Sophia Dornberg '21
Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks 2 Micky Munns '19 Alex Shapiro '19
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 1 Daniel Gamini '19 Valentina Lin '20
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 2 Darcy Chung '20 Valentina Lin '20
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 3 Joshua Cheadle '19 Austin Alexander '19
Sage Hill School Sage Hill School Lightning 4 Ryan Simpson '19 Rowan Oliphant '20
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 1 Claire Lester '19 Megan Mcglothlin '17
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 2 Piper Holthus '21 Burke Kanemasu '21
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 3 Rocco Cappetta '20 Shaye Wattson '21

Conditions — 09/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1023.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From S (181°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1023.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Newport Harbor Yacht Club: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.25
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Newport Harbor Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Newport Harbor Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →