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2016 Xavier Fall Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 3 2 5
2 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 4 4 8
3 Xavier High School Xavier High School Varsity 7 6 13
4 Forman School Forman School Lions 10 11 21
5 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 10 11 21
6 The Taft School The Taft School Big Red Rhinos 8 14 22
7 Litchfield High School Litchfield High School Varsity 14 13 27
8 Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 17 11 28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 2 1 3 Marina Barzaghi '17
Adeline Sutton '17
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1 3 4 Jonathan Mears '18
Tory Miletti '18
Xavier High School Xavier High School Varsity 5 2 7 Stewart Gurnell '19
Michael Dellaripa '19
The Taft School The Taft School Big Red Rhinos 3 5 8 Jack Ewing '18
Minna Holleck '18
Forman School Forman School Lions 4 6 10 Lucie Welles '17
Hill Carden '16
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 6 4 10 Clementine Furber '17
Jondall Norris '20
Litchfield High School Litchfield High School Varsity 7 7 14 Keegan Andrulis '17
Maeve Kavle '17
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 8 DNF 17 William Stottlemeyer '19
Francis Brown '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 1 1 2 Aidan Naughton '18
Ryan Soucy '18
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 2 2 4 Jack Crager '20
Felix Nizet '19
Xavier High School Xavier High School Varsity 3 3 6 Brian Tiernan '17
Franscisco Quintana '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 4 7 11 Elizabeth Thompson '18
Adam Wendell-Pearson '20
Forman School Forman School Lions 5 6 11 Elliot Mcglew '17
Ellis Berman '17
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 7 4 11 Terrence O'Brien '20
Mark Wojcicki '17
Litchfield High School Litchfield High School Varsity 8 5 13 Peyton Mello '17
Jim Kelleher '19
The Taft School The Taft School Big Red Rhinos 6 8 14 Dom Ritzenhoff '17
Ruiwen Bai '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons11
Forman SchoolForman School Lions22
Litchfield High SchoolLitchfield High School Varsity33
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers44
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs66
The Taft SchoolThe Taft School Big Red Rhinos88
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons99
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Varsity1010

Division B

Team1B2B
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons22
Forman SchoolForman School Lions11
Litchfield High SchoolLitchfield High School Varsity44
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers33
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs88
The Taft SchoolThe Taft School Big Red Rhinos66
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons1010
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Varsity99

Conditions — 10/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1019.1 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.7 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From NNE (32°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.6 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1019.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Xavier High School: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Xavier High School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Xavier High School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →