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Dusty Water Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 45 21 66
2 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Mixed 53 28 81
3 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 33 51 84
4 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 50 35 85
5 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School NAVY 24 67 91
6 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School GOLD 48 46 94
7 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 40 60 100
8 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 67 37 104
9 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 65 64 129
10 Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 71 70 141
11 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Mixed 61 98 159
12 Slinger High School Slinger High School MIXED 77 84 161
13 Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Mixed 95 77 172
14 Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Skyhawks 111 102 213
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School NAVY 1 1 3 1 8 1 6 3 24 Christian Spencer '18
Alex Guindon '17
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 5 3 8 2 4 2 1 8 33 Logan O'Connor '17
Nicholas Alfano '18
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 3 6 7 5 6 4 8 1 40 Will Davies '18
Julia Fairbank '19
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 2 12 1 8 9 6 3 4 45 Carlson Brady '17
Lexi Garczynski '19
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School GOLD 4 4 13 11 1 5 5 5 48 Alex Keck '17 [1-8]
Cara Canaday '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Maddie Crucius '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 6 2 9 6 3 11 4 9 50 Nate Olmsted '19
Lexie Baker '19
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Mixed 8 10 4 3 2 7 9 10 53 Patrick Schmidt '17 [1-8]
Maggie Siepmann '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Lily Stemper '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Mixed 11 9 5 4 5 10 10 7 61 Will Grosspietsch '18
Tess Kreutzmann '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 9 5 2 7 12 12 7 11 65 Dylan Cotter '18
Alex Adams '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 10 13 6 10 7 8 11 2 67 Peter Odom '17
Hanna Mularczyk '17
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 13 8 12 13 14 3 2 6 71 David Phlamm '18
Evan Fallon '18
Slinger High School Slinger High School MIXED 7 7 11 9 10 9 12 12 77 Noah Hafner '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Gabrielle Spitz '21 [3-4]
Gabrielle Spitz '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Noah Hafner '18 [3-4]
Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Mixed 12 11 10 12 11 13 13 13 95 Katelyn Salvucci '18
Sammy Volkmar '18
Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Skyhawks 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 111 Morgan Fassnacht '18
Jacob Annesser '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 9 21 Carlson Connor '17
Sydney Sauer '17
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Mixed 1 2 9 4 2 8 1 1 28 Jack Schweda '20
Isabelle Booker '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 5 8 5 3 3 5 2 35 Graham Ness '19
Annika Irene '19
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 5 3 2 2 6 7 7 5 37 Owen Patterson '19
Caroline Bernet '17
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School GOLD 9 4 6 10 4 1 4 8 46 Red Tornehl '20
Mateo Salceda '17
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 7 11 3 6 5 4 8 7 51 Ray Groble '17 [1-8]
Matthew Alfano '17 [1-4]
Nate Casale '17 [5-8]
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 10 7 4 3 8 9 6 13 60 Nikolas Chambers '19 [1-8]
Henry Markarian '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Anna Sanders '20 [5-6]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 10 5 11 12 10 11 3 64 Will Plovanic '19 [1-4]
Nathan Whisner '19 [5-6]
Noah Barton '19 [7-8]
Noah Barton '19 [1-6]
Nathan Whisner '19 [7-8]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School NAVY 8 9 10 7 9 11 9 4 67 Sam Spencer '20
Ben Mayo '19
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 6 12 7 8 10 5 12 10 70 Sherman Thompson '18
Berenger Jeannides '18
Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Mixed 14 13 11 12 13 6 2 6 77 Nicole Fassnacht '18
Jerry Camardelle '18
Slinger High School Slinger High School MIXED 13 6 12 9 11 12 10 11 84 Carly King '19 [1-2]
Abby Eckert '20 [3-4]
Ali Vollmar '19 [5-8]
Abby Eckert '20 [1-2]
Everett Quissek '21 [3-8]
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Mixed 11 8 14 13 14 13 13 12 98 Mikey Grosspietsch '20
Stefan Yergens '18
Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Skyhawks 12 14 13 14 7 14 14 14 102 Isabel Dunn '18
Sylvia Dunn '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Mixed11335577
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity22446688
Johnsburg High SchoolJohnsburg High School Mixed33557799
Johnsburg High SchoolJohnsburg High School Skyhawks4466881010
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School GOLD5577991111
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School NAVY668810101212
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity779911111313
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers88101012121414
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian991111131311
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Mixed111113131133
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons10101212141422
Slinger High SchoolSlinger High School MIXED121214142244
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack1313113355
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity1414224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Mixed22446688
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity33557799
Johnsburg High SchoolJohnsburg High School Mixed4466881010
Johnsburg High SchoolJohnsburg High School Skyhawks5577991111
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School GOLD668810101212
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School NAVY779911111313
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity88101012121414
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers991111131311
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian10101212141422
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Mixed121214142244
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons111113131133
Slinger High SchoolSlinger High School MIXED1313113355
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack1414224466
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Patrick Schmidt '17 [1-8] Maggie Siepmann '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Lily Stemper '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Mixed Jack Schweda '20 Isabelle Booker '20
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School David Phlamm '18 Evan Fallon '18
Varsity Sherman Thompson '18 Berenger Jeannides '18
Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Katelyn Salvucci '18 Sammy Volkmar '18
Mixed Nicole Fassnacht '18 Jerry Camardelle '18
Johnsburg High School Johnsburg High School Morgan Fassnacht '18 Jacob Annesser '21
Skyhawks Isabel Dunn '18 Sylvia Dunn '21
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Alex Keck '17 [1-8] Cara Canaday '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Maddie Crucius '20 [3-4, 7-8]
GOLD Red Tornehl '20 Mateo Salceda '17
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Christian Spencer '18 Alex Guindon '17
NAVY Sam Spencer '20 Ben Mayo '19
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Will Davies '18 Julia Fairbank '19
Varsity Nikolas Chambers '19 [1-8] Henry Markarian '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Anna Sanders '20 [5-6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nate Olmsted '19 Lexie Baker '19
Skippers Graham Ness '19 Annika Irene '19
New Trier HS New Trier HS Dylan Cotter '18 Alex Adams '20
Trevian Will Plovanic '19 [1-4]
Nathan Whisner '19 [5-6]
Noah Barton '19 [7-8]		 Noah Barton '19 [1-6]
Nathan Whisner '19 [7-8]
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Will Grosspietsch '18 Tess Kreutzmann '19
Mixed Mikey Grosspietsch '20 Stefan Yergens '18
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Carlson Brady '17 Lexi Garczynski '19
Raccoons Carlson Connor '17 Sydney Sauer '17
Slinger High School Slinger High School Noah Hafner '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Gabrielle Spitz '21 [3-4]		 Gabrielle Spitz '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Noah Hafner '18 [3-4]
MIXED Carly King '19 [1-2]
Abby Eckert '20 [3-4]
Ali Vollmar '19 [5-8]		 Abby Eckert '20 [1-2]
Everett Quissek '21 [3-8]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Logan O'Connor '17 Nicholas Alfano '18
Wolfpack Ray Groble '17 [1-8] Matthew Alfano '17 [1-4]
Nate Casale '17 [5-8]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Peter Odom '17 Hanna Mularczyk '17
Varsity Owen Patterson '19 Caroline Bernet '17

Conditions — 10/15/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.7 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From SSW (195°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1013.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 15 kn · E 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pewaukee Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pewaukee Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Pewaukee Yacht Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →