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Great Oaks 2016 Green

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 11 11
2 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 13 13
3 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 15 15
4 Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Varsity 17 17
5 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 18 18
6 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 27 27
7 Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 33 33
8 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 34 34
9 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 35 35
10 Blue Jays Blue Jays Blue Jays 38 38
11 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 47 MRP 47 MRP
12 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 48 48
13 North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst 52 52
14 Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 55 55
15 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 60 60
16 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 65 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 3 2 3 3 11 Shane Riera '17 [1-4]
Natalia Gagliano '19 [1-2]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [3-4]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 4 5 2 2 13 Everett Nash '19 [1-2]
Juiia Reynolds '17 [3-4]
Everett Metchick '18 [1-2]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [3-4]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 2 11 1 1 15 Walter Gnann '17 [1-4]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1-2]
Jacob Lawson '18 [3-4]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Varsity 1 7 4 5 17 Jamie Paul '20
Grant Ballesteros '17
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 6 3 5 4 18 Noah Wolters '19
Caleb Boon '17
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 8 1 10 8 27 Jonathan Schrantz '20
Nicholas Combe '19
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 5 10 6 12 33 George Hambleton '17 [1-4]
Houston Loch '18 [1-2]
Connor Rudzki '17 [3-4]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 11 4 9 10 34 Toby Sullivan '19
Jose Verela '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 9 8 7 11 35 Hunter Sorensen '17 [1-4]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [1-2]
Chloe Hudgins '20 [3-4]
Blue Jays Blue Jays Blue Jays 10 9 12 7 38
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 7 6 8 6 47 MRP Pete Mcgriff '20 [1-2]
Camille Mcgriff '18 [3-4]
Max Morgan '18 [1-2]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 13 13 13 9 48 Shannon Groskoph '17 [1-2]
Sean Groskoph '20 [3-4]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-2]
Sophie Lusty '20 [3-4]
North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst 14 14 11 13 52 Bray Spann '19 [1-4]
Annika Johnson '18 [1-2]
Luke Hayes '19 [3-4]
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 12 12 14 DNS 55 Nick Gault '17 [1, 3-4]
Matthew Demboski '17 [2]
Matthew Demboski '17 [1, 3-4]
Nick Gault '17 [2]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 15 15 16 14 60 Elizabeth Squires '18 [1-2]
Tylar Warren '18 [3-4]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [1-2]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 16 DNS 15 DNS 65 Kelsey Bonham '18 [1-2]
Ryan De Lissovoy '18 [3-4]
Nathaniel Dwyer '17 [1-2]
Clara Astrup '18 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity18183232
Choctawhatchee High SchoolChoctawhatchee High School Varsity32321010
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons10102020
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Varsity202088
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Varsity882222
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies222266
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons662828
Blue JaysBlue Jays Blue Jays28282424
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers242444
North Bay Haven Charter AcademyNorth Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst441616
Ocean Springs High SchoolOcean Springs High School Varsity16161414
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red141422
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers223434
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions34342626
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity26261212
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors12121818
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity Walter Gnann '17 [1-4] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1-2]
Jacob Lawson '18 [3-4]
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity George Hambleton '17 [1-4] Houston Loch '18 [1-2]
Connor Rudzki '17 [3-4]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons Everett Nash '19 [1-2]
Juiia Reynolds '17 [3-4]		 Everett Metchick '18 [1-2]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [3-4]
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Varsity Jamie Paul '20 Grant Ballesteros '17
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity Pete Mcgriff '20 [1-2]
Camille Mcgriff '18 [3-4]		 Max Morgan '18 [1-2]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies Jonathan Schrantz '20 Nicholas Combe '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons Hunter Sorensen '17 [1-4] Jaxson Stehlin '20 [1-2]
Chloe Hudgins '20 [3-4]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 Jose Verela '19
North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst Bray Spann '19 [1-4] Annika Johnson '18 [1-2]
Luke Hayes '19 [3-4]
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity Nick Gault '17 [1, 3-4]
Matthew Demboski '17 [2]		 Matthew Demboski '17 [1, 3-4]
Nick Gault '17 [2]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Noah Wolters '19 Caleb Boon '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers Shannon Groskoph '17 [1-2]
Sean Groskoph '20 [3-4]		 Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-2]
Sophie Lusty '20 [3-4]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions Elizabeth Squires '18 [1-2]
Tylar Warren '18 [3-4]		 Kaitlin Daly '17 [1-2]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity Kelsey Bonham '18 [1-2]
Ryan De Lissovoy '18 [3-4]		 Nathaniel Dwyer '17 [1-2]
Clara Astrup '18 [3-4]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors Shane Riera '17 [1-4] Natalia Gagliano '19 [1-2]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [3-4]

Conditions — 11/19/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1027.1 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.3 kn
avg  ·  max 17.5 kn
Gusts to 29.7 kn
From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1027.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jesuit NOLA: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.44 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit NOLA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jesuit NOLA, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →