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Great Oaks 2016 Silver

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 24 24
2 St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 35 35
3 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 37 37
4 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 49 49
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 52 52
6 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 55 55
7 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 57 57
8 Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 61 61
9 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 65 65
10 Varsity Varsity Varsity 70 MRP 70 MRP
11 North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst 77 77
12 Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 92 MRP 92 MRP
13 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 108 108
14 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 114 114
15 CUBS CUBS CUBS 124 MRP 124 MRP
16 Crusaders Crusaders Crusaders 156 MRP 156 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 2 6 8 1 2 1 3 1 24 Emily Gildea '17
Elizabeth Gildea '20
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 1 1 1 2 8 2 12 8 35 Mallory Edwards '19
James Edwards '21
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 6 5 3 6 1 13 1 2 37 Hunter Sorensen '17 [1-8]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Chloe Hudgins '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 12 8 4 4 9 4 4 4 49 Michael Haupt '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Robert Argote '18 [3-4]
Max Bell '17 [1-2, 5-8]
William Nance '18 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 7 6 3 13 12 2 5 52 Shannon Groskoph '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Sean Groskoph '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophie Lusty '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity 5 11 5 9 6 5 8 6 55 Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Pete Mcgriff '20 [3-4]
Max Morgan '18 [1-2]
Madison Johnson '19 [3-8]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 10 4 9 8 5 3 7 11 57 Nick Ochalek '17 [1-8]
Griffin Pollis '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-4]
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity 8 10 7 5 4 10 5 12 61 Nick Gault '17 [1-4]
Matthew Demboski '17 [5-8]
Matthew Demboski '17 [1-4]
Nick Gault '17 [5-8]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 9 3 10 13 3 6 11 10 65 Kelsey Bonham '18 [1-4]
Ryan De Lissovoy '18 [5-8]
Nathaniel Dwyer '17 [1-4]
Clara Astrup '18 [5-8]
Varsity Varsity Varsity 11 2 2 12 7 7 6 3 70 MRP
North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst 7 9 12 10 11 9 10 9 77 Bray Spann '19 [1-2]
Morgan Hurst '19 [3-8]
Luke Hayes '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Annika Johnson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 3 12 11 7 10 8 14 7 92 MRP Katherine Cardozo '17
Ian Hunter '18
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 15 14 15 14 12 11 13 14 108 John Brandt '19
Garrett Golliday '19
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 14 13 14 15 14 14 15 15 114 Kaitlin Daly '17 [1-2]
Tylar Warren '18 [3-4]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [5-8]
Tylar Warren '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [3-6]
CUBS CUBS CUBS 13 15 13 11 15 15 9 13 124 MRP
Crusaders Crusaders Crusaders DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 156 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
CrusadersCrusaders Crusaders22446688
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity4466881010
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Varsity668810101212
VarsityVarsity Varsity88101012121414
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons1010121214141616
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays1212141416161818
CUBSCUBS CUBS1414161618182020
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity1616181820202222
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club1818202022222424
North Bay Haven Charter AcademyNorth Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst2020222224242626
Ocean Springs High SchoolOcean Springs High School Varsity2222242426262828
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS2424262628283030
St. Patrick Catholic High SchoolSt. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish2626282830303232
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers28283030323222
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions303032322244
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity3232224466
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity Emily Gildea '17 Elizabeth Gildea '20
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Varsity Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Pete Mcgriff '20 [3-4]		 Max Morgan '18 [1-2]
Madison Johnson '19 [3-8]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons Hunter Sorensen '17 [1-8] Jaxson Stehlin '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Chloe Hudgins '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays Michael Haupt '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Robert Argote '18 [3-4]		 Max Bell '17 [1-2, 5-8]
William Nance '18 [3-4]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity Katherine Cardozo '17 Ian Hunter '18
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club John Brandt '19 Garrett Golliday '19
North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy Morgan Hurst Bray Spann '19 [1-2]
Morgan Hurst '19 [3-8]		 Luke Hayes '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Annika Johnson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Ocean Springs High School Ocean Springs High School Varsity Nick Gault '17 [1-4]
Matthew Demboski '17 [5-8]		 Matthew Demboski '17 [1-4]
Nick Gault '17 [5-8]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS Nick Ochalek '17 [1-8] Griffin Pollis '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-4]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish Mallory Edwards '19 James Edwards '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers Shannon Groskoph '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Sean Groskoph '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophie Lusty '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions Kaitlin Daly '17 [1-2]
Tylar Warren '18 [3-4]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [5-8]		 Tylar Warren '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [3-6]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity Kelsey Bonham '18 [1-4]
Ryan De Lissovoy '18 [5-8]		 Nathaniel Dwyer '17 [1-4]
Clara Astrup '18 [5-8]

Conditions — 11/20/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1027.7 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1027.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jesuit NOLA: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit NOLA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jesuit NOLA, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →