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LaserPerformance Cressy Championship - Full

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Henry Marshall '17 58
2 Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Max Guerriero '17 84
3 Episcopal High School Episcopal High School Thomas Ford Mccann '18 100
4 Westview High School Westview High School Soenke Jordan '17 109
5 Fort Lauderdale High School Fort Lauderdale High School Stephen Streater '19 130
6 Severn School Severn School Connor Bayless '17 132
7 St. George's School St. George's School Ted Bjerregaard '18 146
8 Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Chase Burwell '17 158
9 Long Beach Polytechnic HS Long Beach Polytechnic HS Cameron Feves '18 162
10 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 167
11 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Paul Lobree '18 179
12 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School James Wagner '17 209
13 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Phillip Schofield '17 220
14 San Diego High School San Diego High School Max Karmel '17 221
15 Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Brendan Gilman '18 221
16 University Liggett School University Liggett School Alex Johnson '18 260
17 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School James Ozaki '19 260
18 Catlin Gabel School Catlin Gabel School Sean Grealish '17 263
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Henry Marshall '17 1 2 8 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 5 3 5 1 5 9 1 5 58
Portsmouth Abbey School Portsmouth Abbey School Max Guerriero '17 5 4 3 5 3 6 2 9 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 15 6 8 84
Episcopal High School Episcopal High School Thomas Ford Mccann '18 10 1 7 10 2 11 1 6 9 2 1 1 8 4 6 1 9 11 100
Westview High School Westview High School Soenke Jordan '17 7 3 10 9 4 4 6 14 4 4 3 11 4 3 8 11 3 1 109
Fort Lauderdale High School Fort Lauderdale High School Stephen Streater '19 8 18 2 6 12 8 4 12 3 10 14 4 6 5 1 4 7 6 130
Severn School Severn School Connor Bayless '17 6 10 4 2 5 5 11 2 5 8 4 8 7 11 10 14 2 18 132
St. George's School St. George's School Ted Bjerregaard '18 2 12 5 4 9 2 12 10 16 12 13 5 1 8 9 8 14 4 146
Osceola Fundamental High School Osceola Fundamental High School Chase Burwell '17 3 9 14 1 6 3 7 16 14 7 7 17 13 17 3 2 10 9 158
Long Beach Polytechnic HS Long Beach Polytechnic HS Cameron Feves '18 15 5 1 14 13 9 5 4 11 1 12 7 18 9 4 13 8 13 162
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17 9 7 6 7 7 13 14 8 12 5 8 9 16 7 14 5 13 7 167
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Paul Lobree '18 12 14 16 8 8 10 10 5 6 14 11 13 3 18 13 12 4 2 179
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School James Wagner '17 17 6 9 11 10 18 13 11 15 9 6 18 10 6 12 7 15 16 209
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Phillip Schofield '17 14 8 15 15 11 12 9 3 10 17 10 16 11 12 18 17 5 17 220
San Diego High School San Diego High School Max Karmel '17 4 15 11 12 17 14 15 17 13 11 15 10 17 14 7 6 11 12 221
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Brendan Gilman '18 11 16 12 13 14 16 16 13 7 13 9 6 14 15 16 3 17 10 221
University Liggett School University Liggett School Alex Johnson '18 13 13 13 18 DSQ 7 18 15 18 16 16 12 12 10 17 10 18 15 260
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School James Ozaki '19 18 17 17 16 16 15 8 7 17 15 17 14 15 13 11 18 12 14 260
Catlin Gabel School Catlin Gabel School Sean Grealish '17 16 11 18 17 15 17 17 18 8 18 18 15 9 16 15 16 16 3 263

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Henry Marshall '17BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols18/183.324.28+0.9699th → 99th4.74%3.2 / 5.7
2Max Guerriero '17Portsmouth Abbey School18/181.483.59+2.1172nd → 99th20.21%4.7 / 10.5
3Thomas Ford Mccann '18Episcopal High School18/181.053.26+2.2059th → 99th22.31%5.6 / 11.6
4Soenke Jordan '17Westview High School18/182.223.03+0.8187th → 98th3.810%6.1 / 8.5
5Stephen Streater '19Fort Lauderdale High School18/181.59u2.48+0.8975th → 92nd4.36%7.2 / 10.3
6Connor Bayless '17Severn School18/182.702.52−0.1895th → 92nd0.255%7.3 / 7.2
7Ted Bjerregaard '18St. George's School18/182.172.34+0.1785th → 89th0.240%8.1 / 8.6
8Chase Burwell '17Osceola Fundamental High School18/181.582.06+0.4775th → 83rd1.431%8.8 / 10.2
9Cameron Feves '18Long Beach Polytechnic HS18/182.801.96−0.8496th → 83rd5.586%9.0 / 7.0
10Conrad (Cort) Vandlik '17Minnetonka High School18/182.182.18+0.0086th → 86th0.061%9.3 / 8.6
11Paul Lobree '18Ransom Everglades School18/182.221.82−0.4087th → 80th1.176%9.9 / 8.6
12James Wagner '17Walter Payton College Preparatory High School18/182.011.36−0.6583rd → 68th3.085%11.6 / 9.1
13Phillip Schofield '17Broadneck High School18/182.341.24−1.1089th → 65th9.898%12.2 / 8.1
14Brendan Gilman '18Red Bank Catholic High School18/181.331.41+0.0867th → 70th0.075%12.3 / 11.0
14Max Karmel '17San Diego High School18/181.28u1.36+0.0867th → 68th0.068%12.3 / 11.1
16Alex Johnson '18University Liggett School18/180.830.70−0.1351st → 45th0.190%14.4 / 12.2
16James Ozaki '19Point Loma High School18/181.380.78−0.6069th → 49th2.694%14.4 / 10.8
18Sean Grealish '17Catlin Gabel School18/180.980.50−0.4857th → 38th1.487%14.6 / 11.8

Conditions — 10/29/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From ESE (120°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1020.2 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Sea Scout Base Galveston — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Sea Scout Base Galveston in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sea Scout Base Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Sea Scout Base Galveston: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →