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LaserPerformance Cressy Championship - Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Sophia Reineke '17 4 1 4 1 9 1 9 10 3 4 9 2 6 2 13 1 6 3 88
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Lucas Pierce '17 3 6 7 13 5 16 12 4 4 6 8 5 4 3 6 7 4 7 120
Westside High School Westside High School Kanttida (Charlotte) Rose '18 1 10 11 7 7 10 2 2 1 13 3 4 1 6 17 13 17 5 130
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Aidan Hoogland '20 8 5 5 4 3 3 13 12 10 2 13 1 7 18 12 2 12 6 136
Brunswick School Brunswick School Jack Parkin '17 6 8 15 6 8 2 3 8 16 9 1 11 14 5 5 15 13 2 147
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 9 2 12 11 4 13 10 17 2 10 14 3 10 1 7 6 5 11 147
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 16 7 3 8 6 6 15 RDG 6 3 5 14 17 10 10 3 7 8 153
The Overlake School The Overlake School Talia Toland '17 5 15 14 9 1 4 5 5 17 5 16 15 11 11 14 16 2 9 174
South River High School South River High School Leo Boucher '18 18 11 18 12 10 5 7 7 11 1 6 6 3 9 11 17 10 14 176
Kentucky Country Day School Kentucky Country Day School Carly Broussard '17 2 3 17 5 11 14 8 11 8 14 7 10 8 12 9 11 15 12 177
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Michael Ehnot '18 17 4 13 14 2 9 16 6 9 15 2 12 9 13 1 9 16 10 177
St. George's School St. George's School Alex Fasolo '18 10 14 10 15 17 18 1 15 7 8 11 7 18 4 8 4 11 4 182
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Jake Vickers '18 13 16 2 16 12 12 4 3 12 7 17 13 13 15 15 5 8 15 198
Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 14 17 1 2 14 17 14 14 18 17 18 9 2 17 2 10 3 18 207
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 15 12 8 3 15 11 11 9 14 12 4 17 16 8 3 14 18 17 207
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Nicholas Stefanoni '17 11 9 16 18 13 8 17 18 13 18 15 8 15 7 4 18 1 1 210
Westview High School Westview High School Ansgar Jordan '18 7 13 9 10 18 15 18 1 5 11 12 18 12 16 18 8 9 16 216
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Christian Spencer '18 12 18 6 17 16 7 6 16 15 16 10 16 5 14 16 12 14 13 229

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Sophia Reineke '17St. Thomas Aquinas High School18/183.354.08+0.7399th → 99th3.19%4.9 / 7.3
2Lucas Pierce '17Santa Barbara High School Dons 218/183.083.51+0.4399th → 99th1.126%6.7 / 8.0
3Kanttida (Charlotte) Rose '18Westside High School18/181.51u3.18+1.6773rd → 99th13.72%7.2 / 12.2
4Aidan Hoogland '20Point Loma High School18/182.173.12+0.9585th → 99th4.913%7.6 / 10.5
5Chase Carraway '18Cape Fear Academy18/183.163.03−0.1499th → 98th0.160%8.2 / 7.8
5Jack Parkin '17Brunswick School18/183.063.00−0.0699th → 98th0.053%8.2 / 8.1
7Caden Scheiblauer '19Santa Barbara High School Dons 118/182.102.97+0.8684th → 98th4.120%9.1 / 10.7
8Talia Toland '17The Overlake School18/182.472.64+0.1792nd → 94th0.251%9.7 / 9.7
9Leo Boucher '18South River High School18/183.532.37−1.1699th → 89th10.695%9.8 / 6.8
10Carly Broussard '17Kentucky Country Day School18/182.512.77+0.2792nd → 96th0.555%9.8 / 9.6
10Michael Ehnot '18Christian Brothers Academy18/182.322.62+0.3089th → 94th0.642%9.8 / 10.2
12Alex Fasolo '18St. George's School18/182.532.35−0.1992nd → 89th0.260%10.1 / 9.5
13Jake Vickers '18Archbishop Spalding18/182.462.39−0.0891st → 90th0.076%11.0 / 9.6
14Kyle Dochoda '17Shorecrest Preparatory School18/182.412.15−0.2691st → 85th0.575%11.5 / 9.9
14Samuel Bartel '18Orono High School18/182.491.74−0.7592nd → 79th3.982%11.5 / 9.7
16Nicholas Stefanoni '17The Hotchkiss School18/181.971.86−0.1183rd → 81st0.159%11.7 / 11.0
17Ansgar Jordan '18Westview High School18/182.101.77−0.3484th → 79th0.770%12.0 / 10.7
18Christian Spencer '18Kettle Moraine High School18/182.481.95−0.5392nd → 83rd2.192%12.7 / 9.7

Conditions — 10/29/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From ESE (120°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1020.2 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Sea Scout Base Galveston — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Sea Scout Base Galveston in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sea Scout Base Galveston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Sea Scout Base Galveston: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →