MISSA Cressy Qualifier Laser Radial

HostReeds Lake | East Grand Rapids
Date09/24/2016
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Kentucky Country Day School	Carly Broussard '17	69
2	Orono High School	Samuel Bartel '18	108
3	Kettle Moraine High School	Christian Spencer '18	118
4	Highland Park High School - IL	Lawson Levine '20	124
5	Big Foot High School	Harry Melges Iv '19	125
6	Thomas Worthington High School	Ryan Squires '17	128
7	Mariemont High School	Henry Rolander '19	137
8	Arrowhead High School	Jp Friend '18	151
9	Minnetonka High School	Nate Olmsted '19	171
10	Chanhassen High School	Katie Krauska '17	172
11	Minnetonka High School	Matthew Kickhafer '19	176
12	Forest Hills Central High School	Ben Finkelstein '18	200
13	Catholic Memorial	Patrick Schmidt '17	202
14	East Grand Rapids	Justin Lovell '17	211
15	Fenwick High School	Harry Bearrows '18	238
16	Kohler High School	Douglas Wake '18	240
17	Black River Public School	Jack Hemmelgarn '19	252
18	Kettle Moraine High School	Alex Keck '17	270
19	Hudson	Adam Tronnes '20	277
20	Latin School of Chicago	Nikolas Chambers '19	286
21	South Christian High School	Samuel Boehle '19	289
22	Detroit Country Day School	Harrison George '18	298
23	New Trier HS	Lolly Vasilion '18	299
24	Detroit Country Day School	Liz Obermaier '17	300
25	Lake Forest High School	Connor Sheridan '18	305
26	Stillwater High School	Brian Olson '18	315
27	New Trier HS	Dylan Cotter '18	335
28	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Owen Patterson '19	339
29	Orono High School	Henry Jaffray '18	347
30	Lake Forest High School	Nicholas Elsasser '18	386
31	East Grand Rapids	Murphy Wynsma '19	387
32	Woodlands Academy	Helen Randolph '16	411
33	East Grand Rapids	Kate Mackeigan '19	425
34	Olentangy Liberty High School	Siri Schantz '19	433
35	West Bloomfield High School	Nicole Millerman '19	433
36	Minnetonka High School	Garrett Moen '19	442
37	Evanston Township HS	Aj Brown '18	475
38	Grosse Pointe North High School	Adam Weinkauf '18	504
39	Evanston Township HS	Will Mccrory '18	559

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Kentucky Country Day School	Carly Broussard '17	5	1	2	5	6	3	2	13	8	3	1	2	3	15	69
Orono High School	Samuel Bartel '18	21	12	7	4	4	1	9	3	16	4	16	4	4	3	108
Kettle Moraine High School	Christian Spencer '18	3	15	3	3	5	4	7	20	11	5	2	12	14	14	118
Highland Park High School - IL	Lawson Levine '20	15	8	4	1	2	6	4	5	2	18	27	3	5	24	124
Big Foot High School	Harry Melges Iv '19	1	2	1	8	15	7	12	1	28	1	5	9	12	23	125
Thomas Worthington High School	Ryan Squires '17	4	19	5	17	1	2	1	23	7	13	11	5	9	11	128
Mariemont High School	Henry Rolander '19	7	21	10	7	18	8	14	9	3	8	9	1	1	21	137
Arrowhead High School	Jp Friend '18	14	10	9	11	7	5	5	25	18	10	8	8	8	13	151
Minnetonka High School	Nate Olmsted '19	9	4	13	34	21	9	13	4	15	2	4	18	23	2	171
Chanhassen High School	Katie Krauska '17	10	5	16	12	3	14	15	6	14	14	7	35	15	6	172
Minnetonka High School	Matthew Kickhafer '19	8	11	11	31	9	15	3	12	27	12	3	31	2	1	176
Forest Hills Central High School	Ben Finkelstein '18	11	16	12	9	19	18	10	18	1	20	26	7	6	27	200
Catholic Memorial	Patrick Schmidt '17	6	6	6	29	16	22	6	24	13	27	21	11	10	5	202
East Grand Rapids	Justin Lovell '17	24	7	8	2	20	19	11	15	22	6	20	14	26	17	211
Fenwick High School	Harry Bearrows '18	13	17	15	22	23	27	8	2	17	15	19	16	24	20	238
Kohler High School	Douglas Wake '18	2	3	21	23	12	12	18	8	26	16	29	22	16	32	240
Black River Public School	Jack Hemmelgarn '19	17	14	20	6	26	20	24	22	20	7	32	15	20	9	252
Kettle Moraine High School	Alex Keck '17	33	13	24	16	13	24	21	10	30	11	17	17	7	34	270
Hudson	Adam Tronnes '20	16	32	33	15	8	11	31	7	24	25	6	20	13	36	277
Latin School of Chicago	Nikolas Chambers '19	19	27	19	13	24	36	26	17	6	9	31	19	32	8	286
South Christian High School	Samuel Boehle '19	18	25	18	14	10	21	20	11	33	23	23	32	11	30	289
Detroit Country Day School	Harrison George '18	32	22	14	24	36	10	22	32	10	29	22	6	27	12	298
New Trier HS	Lolly Vasilion '18	22	26	30	19	11	28	19	16	9	21	30	27	19	22	299
Detroit Country Day School	Liz Obermaier '17	23	18	26	36	22	31	17	28	5	17	14	23	21	19	300
Lake Forest High School	Connor Sheridan '18	27	28	22	25	14	26	27	14	34	31	25	10	18	4	305
Stillwater High School	Brian Olson '18	26	31	29	28	17	13	23	34	12	19	15	26	17	25	315
New Trier HS	Dylan Cotter '18	12	9	37	21	29	17	37	26	25	22	36	21	25	18	335
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Owen Patterson '19	29	23	28	18	25	35	28	19	4	24	24	25	22	35	339
Orono High School	Henry Jaffray '18	37	20	17	26	30	16	25	33	19	26	10	30	30	28	347
Lake Forest High School	Nicholas Elsasser '18	25	34	36	37	28	25	29	35	31	30	13	28	28	7	386
East Grand Rapids	Murphy Wynsma '19	31	29	27	27	31	29	34	27	23	33	12	24	34	26	387
Woodlands Academy	Helen Randolph '16	30	33	25	20	37	32	38	31	37	28	28	33	29	10	411
East Grand Rapids	Kate Mackeigan '19	35	37	31	33	34	23	36	30	21	34	34	13	33	31	425
Olentangy Liberty High School	Siri Schantz '19	28	38	23	32	27	30	16	29	32	32	37	34	38	37	433
West Bloomfield High School	Nicole Millerman '19	34	24	35	10	33	34	33	38	29	37	33	29	35	29	433
Minnetonka High School	Garrett Moen '19	20	36	38	35	32	33	32	21	36	36	35	36	36	16	442
Evanston Township HS	Aj Brown '18	DNF	30	32	30	35	DNF	35	37	38	38	18	38	31	33	475
Grosse Pointe North High School	Adam Weinkauf '18	36	35	34	38	38	37	30	36	35	35	38	37	37	38	504
Evanston Township HS	Will Mccrory '18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	39	DNS	559

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
— in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A 39 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Carly Broussard '17	Kentucky Country Day School	14/14	2.51	4.01	+1.51	92nd → 99th	9.1	1%	4.9 / 12.8
2	Samuel Bartel '18	Orono High School Scarlet 2	14/14	2.44	3.17	+0.72	91st → 99th	2.5	7%	7.7 / 13.2
3	Christian Spencer '18	Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 1	14/14	2.44	3.07	+0.63	91st → 99th	2.0	10%	8.4 / 13.3
4	Lawson Levine '20	Highland Park High School - IL	14/14	2.11	2.81	+0.70	84th → 96th	2.4	6%	8.9 / 15.1
5	Harry Melges Iv '19	Big Foot High School	14/14	1.99	2.83	+0.84	83rd → 96th	3.4	9%	8.9 / 15.9
6	Ryan Squires '17	Thomas Worthington High School	14/14	1.09	2.90	+1.81	61st → 97th	13.0	2%	9.1 / 20.9
7	Henry Rolander '19	Mariemont High School	14/14	1.40	2.79	+1.39	70th → 96th	8.4	5%	9.8 / 19.2
8	Jp Friend '18	Arrowhead High School	14/14	2.58	2.64	+0.06	93rd → 94th	0.0	38%	10.8 / 12.9
9	Nate Olmsted '19	Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	14/14	1.80	2.12	+0.32	80th → 84th	0.5	21%	12.2 / 16.9
10	Katie Krauska '17	Chanhassen High School	14/14	1.21	2.14	+0.93	65th → 85th	3.9	7%	12.3 / 20.2
11	Matthew Kickhafer '19	Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	14/14	1.35	2.07	+0.72	68th → 84th	2.6	6%	12.6 / 19.5
12	Ben Finkelstein '18	Forest Hills Central High School	14/14	1.27^u	2.13	+0.86	66th → 84th	3.7	17%	14.3 / 19.9
13	Patrick Schmidt '17	Catholic Memorial	14/14	1.43	1.99	+0.56	71st → 83rd	1.7	16%	14.4 / 19.0
14	Justin Lovell '17	East Grand Rapids Varsity Blue	14/14	1.62	2.03	+0.42	75th → 83rd	0.9	33%	15.1 / 17.9
15	Harry Bearrows '18	Fenwick High School	14/14	1.08	1.83	+0.75	60th → 81st	2.8	26%	17.0 / 20.9
16	Douglas Wake '18	Kohler High School	14/14	2.33	1.63	−0.70	89th → 76th	3.4	73%	17.1 / 14.1
17	Jack Hemmelgarn '19	Black River Public School	14/14	1.34	1.64	+0.30	67th → 76th	0.5	37%	18.0 / 19.6
18	Alex Keck '17	Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 2	14/14	1.91	1.33	−0.59	82nd → 67th	2.3	70%	19.3 / 16.6
19	Adam Tronnes '20	Hudson	14/14	0.51	1.16	+0.65	38th → 63rd	2.1	21%	19.8 / 24.3
20	Nikolas Chambers '19	Latin School of Chicago	14/14	0.84	1.10	+0.26	51st → 61st	0.4	33%	20.4 / 22.5
21	Samuel Boehle '19	South Christian High School	14/14	1.33^u	1.29	−0.03	67th → 67th	0.0	58%	20.6 / 19.6
22	Harrison George '18	Detroit Country Day School Varsity 2	14/14	1.36	1.01	−0.34	68th → 58th	0.7	62%	21.3 / 19.4
23	Lolly Vasilion '18	New Trier HS Trevian 2	14/14	1.30	1.29	−0.01	67th → 67th	0.0	61%	21.4 / 19.7
24	Liz Obermaier '17	Detroit Country Day School Varsity 1	14/14	0.63	1.18	+0.54	43rd → 64th	1.6	36%	21.4 / 23.5
25	Connor Sheridan '18	Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	14/14	1.13	1.12	−0.01	61st → 61st	0.0	56%	21.8 / 20.9
26	Brian Olson '18	Stillwater High School	14/14	1.04	1.11	+0.08	59th → 61st	0.0	59%	22.5 / 21.2
27	Dylan Cotter '18	New Trier HS Trevian 1	14/14	1.27	0.59	−0.68	66th → 42nd	2.9	77%	23.9 / 19.8
28	Owen Patterson '19	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	14/14	1.30	0.83	−0.47	67th → 51st	1.4	83%	24.2 / 19.8
29	Henry Jaffray '18	Orono High School Scarlet 1	14/14	0.84	0.69	−0.15	51st → 45th	0.1	64%	24.8 / 22.5
30	Nicholas Elsasser '18	Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	14/14	1.10	0.33	−0.78	61st → 31st	4.2	88%	27.6 / 20.9
31	Murphy Wynsma '19	East Grand Rapids Pioneers 2	14/14	1.24	0.56	−0.68	65th → 41st	3.3	91%	27.6 / 20.0
32	Helen Randolph '16	Woodlands Academy	14/14	0.56	0.06	−0.50	41st → 24th	1.5	84%	29.4 / 23.8
33	Kate Mackeigan '19	East Grand Rapids Pioneers 1	14/14	0.57	0.10	−0.47	41st → 24th	1.4	89%	30.4 / 23.7
34	Nicole Millerman '19	West Bloomfield High School	14/14	0.47	-0.08	−0.55	36th → 20th	1.8	89%	30.9 / 24.3
34	Siri Schantz '19	Olentangy Liberty High School	14/14	-0.08	-0.10	−0.02	20th → 19th	0.0	80%	30.9 / 27.4
36	Garrett Moen '19	Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	14/14	0.15	-0.20	−0.35	26th → 16th	0.7	84%	31.6 / 26.2
37	Aj Brown '18	Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1	14/14	0.37	-0.65	−1.02	33rd → 8th	4.9	96%	33.9 / 24.9
38	Adam Weinkauf '18	Grosse Pointe North High School	14/14	0.08	-1.18	−1.26	24th → 3rd	8.3	99%	36.0 / 26.3
39	Will Mccrory '18	Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2	14/14	1.07^u	—	—	60th → —	7.9	>99%	39.9 / 21.2

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 55°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.4 kn

avg · max 8.6 kn

Gusts to 18.9 kn

From E (88°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1023.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Reeds Lake | East Grand Rapids — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Reeds Lake | East Grand Rapids in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Reeds Lake | East Grand Rapids by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Reeds Lake | East Grand Rapids: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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