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MISSA Great Oaks - C420 Qualifying

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 9 9
2 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 9 9
3 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 16 16
4 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 17 17
5 Oshkosh West High School Oshkosh West High School Wildcats 21 21
6 Mariemont High School Mariemont High School Varsity 21 21
7 Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 28 28
8 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 29 29
9 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 33 33
10 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Navy 37 37
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 1 5 1 2 9 Samuel Bartel '18 [1-4]
Rachel Bartel '20 [1-3]
Erik Sundberg '17 [4]
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 4 2 2 1 9 Emily Gildea '17
Elizabeth Gildea '20
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 3 1 4 8 16 Harrison George '18
Liz Obermaier '17
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 7 4 3 3 17 Genna Viggiano '18
Clara Brown '18
Oshkosh West High School Oshkosh West High School Wildcats 2 7 7 5 21 Reed Weston '19
Allison Engstrom '19
Mariemont High School Mariemont High School Varsity 9 3 5 4 21 Henry Rolander '19
Will Weston '18
Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon 5 8 9 6 28 Oscar Casas '17
Cady Clark '20
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 6 6 10 7 29 Harry Bearrows '18
Maura Hopkinson '18
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 8 9 6 10 33 Joey Simpson '17
Jacob Zagaros '19
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Navy 10 10 8 9 37 Lucas Haarstad '17
Katarina Kovacova '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Red21211616
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity16162424
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Navy24242222
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Maroon22221818
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity18181515
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars15151919
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs19192323
Mariemont High SchoolMariemont High School Varsity23232020
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet20201717
Oshkosh West High SchoolOshkosh West High School Wildcats17172121
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red Joey Simpson '17 Jacob Zagaros '19
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity Emily Gildea '17 Elizabeth Gildea '20
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Navy Lucas Haarstad '17 Katarina Kovacova '18
Culver Academies Culver Academies Maroon Oscar Casas '17 Cady Clark '20
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Harrison George '18 Liz Obermaier '17
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars Harry Bearrows '18 Maura Hopkinson '18
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs Genna Viggiano '18 Clara Brown '18
Mariemont High School Mariemont High School Varsity Henry Rolander '19 Will Weston '18
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet Samuel Bartel '18 [1-4] Rachel Bartel '20 [1-3]
Erik Sundberg '17 [4]
Oshkosh West High School Oshkosh West High School Wildcats Reed Weston '19 Allison Engstrom '19

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 97%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity97% Pressure1023.3 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →