MISSA Great Oaks - Silver Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 14 14
2 Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Varsity 17 17
3 Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Spartans 21 21
4 Providence Academy Providence Academy Navy 23 23
5 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Navy 26 26
6 Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 34 34
7 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 37 37
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 1 4 2 3 1 3 14 Harry Bearrows '18
Maura Hopkinson '18
Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Varsity 3 2 1 1 4 6 17 Jason Davis '17
Madison Mott '17
Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Spartans 5 1 6 4 3 2 21 Emily Scherer '20 [1-2]
Karson Mraz '19 [3-4]
Adam Mcavoy '18 [5-6]
Karson Mraz '19 [1-2]
Adam Mcavoy '18 [3-4]
Emily Scherer '20 [5-6]
Providence Academy Providence Academy Navy 4 7 4 2 2 4 23 Jack Wall '17 [1-2]
Will Hedburg '18 [3-6]
Amanda Ilhe '18 [1-4]
Jack Wall '17 [5-6]
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Navy 6 5 3 6 5 1 26 Lucas Haarstad '17
Katarina Kovacova '18
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 7 6 5 5 6 5 34 Michael Dowson '19
Katharine Willegalle '19
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 2 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS 37 Joey Simpson '17
Jacob Zagaros '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Red151516161717
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Navy161617171818
Eden Prairie Sailing TeamEden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity171718181919
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars181819192020
Oshkosh North High SchoolOshkosh North High School Spartans191920202121
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Navy202021211515
Southwest Senior High SchoolSouthwest Senior High School Varsity212115151616
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red Joey Simpson '17 Jacob Zagaros '19
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Navy Lucas Haarstad '17 Katarina Kovacova '18
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity Michael Dowson '19 Katharine Willegalle '19
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars Harry Bearrows '18 Maura Hopkinson '18
Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Spartans Emily Scherer '20 [1-2]
Karson Mraz '19 [3-4]
Adam Mcavoy '18 [5-6]
Karson Mraz '19 [1-2]
Adam Mcavoy '18 [3-4]
Emily Scherer '20 [5-6]
Providence Academy Providence Academy Navy Jack Wall '17 [1-2]
Will Hedburg '18 [3-6]
Amanda Ilhe '18 [1-4]
Jack Wall '17 [5-6]
Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Varsity Jason Davis '17 Madison Mott '17

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 97%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity97% Pressure1023.3 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 5 kn · NE 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.41 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →