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MISSA Great Oaks - Z420 qualifying

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 11 11
2 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 13 13
3 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 13 13
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 20 20
5 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 23 23
6 Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 23 23
7 Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 24 24
8 Providence Academy Providence Academy Navy 27 27
9 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 33 33
10 Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 38 38
11 Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Spartans 39 39
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 3 1 3 4 11 Toby Sullivan '19
Karan Jain '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1 3 7 2 13 Colleen Baumann '17
Lillian Nemeth '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 2 8 1 13 Jackson Connell '17 [1-4]
Brianna Misk '17 [1-3]
Emma Aubuchon '19 [4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 8 8 1 3 20 Noah Wolters '19
Caleb Boon '17
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 9 2 8 23 Han-Ray Jahn '17
Rowan Henke '17
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 5 4 9 5 23 Kate Higgins '18
Marit Lebakken '20
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 9 5 4 6 24 Christopher Heideman '20 [1]
Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [2-4]
Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [1]
Christopher Heideman '20 [2-4]
Providence Academy Providence Academy Navy 6 6 5 10 27 Will Hedburg '18 [1-4]
Amanda Ilhe '18 [1-2]
Jack Wall '17 [3-4]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 7 7 10 9 33 Jason Davis '17
Madison Mott '17
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity 10 10 11 7 38 Michael Dowson '19
Katharine Willegalle '19
Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Spartans 11 11 6 11 39 Adam Mcavoy '18 [1-2]
Emily Scherer '20 [3-4]
Emily Scherer '20 [1-2]
Adam Mcavoy '18 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity1188
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons101066
Eden Prairie Sailing TeamEden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity8833
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Varsity3355
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits5599
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers9922
Oshkosh North High SchoolOshkosh North High School Spartans2277
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Navy771111
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity111144
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red441010
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy6611
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity Christopher Heideman '20 [1]
Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [2-4]		 Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [1]
Christopher Heideman '20 [2-4]
Eden Prairie Sailing Team Eden Prairie Sailing Team Varsity Michael Dowson '19 Katharine Willegalle '19
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity Kate Higgins '18 Marit Lebakken '20
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits Han-Ray Jahn '17 Rowan Henke '17
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 Karan Jain '19
Oshkosh North High School Oshkosh North High School Spartans Adam Mcavoy '18 [1-2]
Emily Scherer '20 [3-4]		 Emily Scherer '20 [1-2]
Adam Mcavoy '18 [3-4]
Providence Academy Providence Academy Navy Will Hedburg '18 [1-4] Amanda Ilhe '18 [1-2]
Jack Wall '17 [3-4]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity Jason Davis '17 Madison Mott '17
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Noah Wolters '19 Caleb Boon '17
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons Colleen Baumann '17 Lillian Nemeth '18
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy Jackson Connell '17 [1-4] Brianna Misk '17 [1-3]
Emma Aubuchon '19 [4]

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 97%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity97% Pressure1023.3 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.75 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →