North SAISA Great Oaks Qualifier

HostCarolina Yacht Club
Date10/15/2016
TypePromotional
BoatZ420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Beaufort High School	Varsity	61	61
2	Myers Park High School	Mustangs	63	63
3	John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard Vikings	66	66
4	Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	71	71
5	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	75	75
6	Wando	Wando Warriors	83	83
7	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	91	91
8	Carrboro High School	Varsity	101	101
9	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	103	103
10	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	105	105
11	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	126	126
12	Glynn Academy	Varsity	140	140
13	Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	145	145
14	Ashley Hall	Panthers	153	153
15	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	154	154
16	SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	155	155
17	Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	184	184
18	Bishop England High School	Bishops	196	196
19	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	215	215
20	Benedictine Military School	Varsity	218	218

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Beaufort High School	Varsity	1	9	3	1	11	3	3	1	1	8	18	2	61	Walter Gnann '17 [1-12] Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-8] Sarah Suber '18 [9-12]
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	3	3	13	10	6	5	4	4	5	6	3	1	63	Adam Larson '19 [1-12] Kenny Corsig '19 [1-2] Will Dobrowski '19 [3-12]
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard Vikings	6	11	1	13	1	1	8	6	9	1	4	5	66	Scott Harris '18 [1-12] Cooper Whitehead '18 [1-10] Sean Harris '20 [11-12]
Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	11	4	4	6	10	2	1	3	15	3	5	7	71	Collin Porter '19 [1-12] Mario Ojeda '18 [1-8] Cecilia Belzer '18 [9-12]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	5	2	BKD	BKD	4	7	5	2	7	7	13	11	75	Joey Chomyn '19 [1-12] William Chapman '18 [1-4, 7-8] Peter Buyck '18 [5-6] Lillian Holland '19 [9-12]
Wando	Wando Warriors	2	1	OCS	2	3	11	2	7	14	9	2	9	83	Austin Ando '17 [1-10] James Renneker '18 [11-12] Jack Sutton '18 [1-10] Caroline Main '18 [11-12]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	10	7	2	3	9	12	13	13	4	4	11	3	91	Megan Fetterley '19 [1-12] Bobby Baker '18 [1-6] Britton Durst '19 [7-12]
Carrboro High School	Varsity	4	10	OCS	4	7	10	11	10	6	2	12	4	101	Levi Hencke '18 Emma Richardson '17
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	9	12	6	5	8	8	15	12	11	10	1	6	103	Benjamin Smith '22 Kate Smith '19
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	8	5	8	11	12	4	6	11	12	12	6	10	105	Michael Lane '17 Elizabeth Tompkins '17
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	13	8	12	7	2	6	10	15	19	13	9	12	126	Matthew Chenard '17 [1-12] Paul ("Trinity") Barger '17 [1-8] Evan Chenard '20 [9-12]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	15	15	5	18	13	14	16	14	2	5	7	16	140	Griffin Stevenson '17 Sarah Weese '20
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	16	14	7	15	17	15	7	17	8	11	10	8	145	Noah Benton '18 [1-12] Taylor Baker '20 [1-4] Victoria Marinoff '18 [5-12]
Ashley Hall	Panthers	19	6	15	8	5	9	19	9	13	17	14	19	153	Ann Sheridan '18 Elizabeth Ouzts '17
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	7	13	OCS	12	14	16	12	5	16	15	8	15	154	Sammy Choufanni '17 [1-12] Robbie Mones '20 [1-8] Jenna Stephens '18 [9-12]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	14	16	11	9	15	13	9	8	17	14	16	13	155	Sarah Deloach '17 Caroline Keinath '17
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	18	19	14	14	18	17	14	16	3	18	19	14	184	David Robertson '17 Gareth Ferguson '19
Bishop England High School	Bishops	20	18	10	19	16	18	17	18	10	16	17	17	196	Carter Beall '18 [1-12] Arianna Borkowski '20 [1-2, 5-6] Erin O'Connor '20 [3-4, 7-12]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	17	20	16	17	19	19	18	19	18	19	15	18	215	Sarah Harrington '18 [1-8] Sophia Bernstein '19 [9-12] Sophia Bernstein '19 [1-8] Sarah Harrington '18 [9-12]
Benedictine Military School	Varsity	12	17	9	16	20	20	20	20	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	218	Will Gladden '19 Hogan Keenan '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Ashley Hall Panthers	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Benedictine Military School Varsity	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Bishop England High School Bishops	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Carrboro High School Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Glynn Academy Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
James Island Charter High School Varsity	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard Vikings	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Myers Park High School Mustangs	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Savannah Country Day School Hornets	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Wando Wando Warriors	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	Sarah Harrington '18 [1-8] Sophia Bernstein '19 [9-12]	Sophia Bernstein '19 [1-8] Sarah Harrington '18 [9-12]
Ashley Hall	Panthers	Ann Sheridan '18	Elizabeth Ouzts '17
Beaufort High School	Varsity	Walter Gnann '17 [1-12]	Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-8] Sarah Suber '18 [9-12]
Benedictine Military School	Varsity	Will Gladden '19	Hogan Keenan '19
Bishop England High School	Bishops	Carter Beall '18 [1-12]	Arianna Borkowski '20 [1-2, 5-6] Erin O'Connor '20 [3-4, 7-12]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	Benjamin Smith '22	Kate Smith '19
Carrboro High School	Varsity	Levi Hencke '18	Emma Richardson '17
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	David Robertson '17	Gareth Ferguson '19
Glynn Academy	Varsity	Griffin Stevenson '17	Sarah Weese '20
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	Megan Fetterley '19 [1-12]	Bobby Baker '18 [1-6] Britton Durst '19 [7-12]
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard Vikings	Scott Harris '18 [1-12]	Cooper Whitehead '18 [1-10] Sean Harris '20 [11-12]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	Matthew Chenard '17 [1-12]	Paul ("Trinity") Barger '17 [1-8] Evan Chenard '20 [9-12]
Myers Park High School	Mustangs	Adam Larson '19 [1-12]	Kenny Corsig '19 [1-2] Will Dobrowski '19 [3-12]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	Sammy Choufanni '17 [1-12]	Robbie Mones '20 [1-8] Jenna Stephens '18 [9-12]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	Joey Chomyn '19 [1-12]	William Chapman '18 [1-4, 7-8] Peter Buyck '18 [5-6] Lillian Holland '19 [9-12]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	Michael Lane '17	Elizabeth Tompkins '17
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	Sarah Deloach '17	Caroline Keinath '17
Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	Collin Porter '19 [1-12]	Mario Ojeda '18 [1-8] Cecilia Belzer '18 [9-12]
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	Noah Benton '18 [1-12]	Taylor Baker '20 [1-4] Victoria Marinoff '18 [5-12]
Wando	Wando Warriors	Austin Ando '17 [1-10] James Renneker '18 [11-12]	Jack Sutton '18 [1-10] Caroline Main '18 [11-12]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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North SAISA Great Oaks Qualifier

Division A

From the notes