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Raritan Tuesday Series 10-4-16

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 16 16
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 19 19
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 24 24
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 26 26
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 26 26
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 28 28
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 28 28
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 45 45
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 46 46
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 52 52
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 53 53
12 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 55 55
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 64 64
14 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 66 66
15 Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 73 73
16 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 77 77
17 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 79 79
18 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 84 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 3 3 4 3 3 16 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5]
William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 2 10 5 1 1 19 Sean Groskoph '20
Jack Quinn '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 4 4 6 5 5 24 Marisa Marino '17
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 7 5 3 4 7 26 Patrick Murray '19
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 OCS 2 1 2 2 26 Mack Totman '19
Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 1 1 13 7 6 28 Margot Murray '17
Liam Dwyer '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 5 7 2 10 4 28 Sophie Lusty '20
Christen Taylor '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 8 11 8 9 9 45 Malcolm Harrison '19
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 OCS 6 7 6 8 46 Sean Groskoph '20
Natalie Herr '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 9 12 12 8 11 52 Luke Duplessis '20
Gavin Mayes '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 6 8 10 DNF 10 53 Hannah Mercurio '20
Evan Hybl '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 10 9 9 12 15 55 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 14 13 14 11 12 64 Paul Danenberg '19
Zoe Papier '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 11 14 11 16 14 66 No Show
No Show
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 12 DNF 15 14 13 73 Julia Bay '18
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 13 15 17 15 17 77 Cooper Lahoud '19
No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 15 17 18 13 16 79 Lily Neilan '20
Clara Eroles '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 16 16 16 17 DNS 84 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 155555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 266666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 377777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 488888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 599999
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes1010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 177777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 101818181818
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 288888
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 61414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 71515151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 81616161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 91717171717
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 111111
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 21212121212
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Luke Duplessis '20 Gavin Mayes '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Marisa Marino '17 Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Cooper Lahoud '19 No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Paul Danenberg '19 Zoe Papier '19
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Julia Bay '18 No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Patrick Murray '19 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 Sophie Lusty '20 Christen Taylor '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5] William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sean Groskoph '20 Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Hannah Mercurio '20 Evan Hybl '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Mack Totman '19 Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Sean Groskoph '20 Natalie Herr '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 Margot Murray '17 Liam Dwyer '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 Malcolm Harrison '19 Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 Lily Neilan '20 Clara Eroles '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 No Show No Show
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 No Show No Show

Conditions — 10/04/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1025.7 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From ENE (58°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1025.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →