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Raritan Tuesday Series 10-18-16

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 6 6
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 14 14
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 15 15
4 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 17 17
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 27 27
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 29 29
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 36 36
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 37 37
9 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 38 38
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 38 38
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 39 39
12 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 44 44
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 45 45
14 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 59 59
15 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 60 60
16 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 64 64
17 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 73 73
18 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 74 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 3 1 1 1 6 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 2 3 7 14 Patrick Murray '19
Christen Taylor '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 4 3 5 3 15 Liam Dwyer '17
Katharine Srere '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 6 5 4 2 17 Marisa Marino '17
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 5 7 7 8 27 Lily Neilan '20
Evan Hybl '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 8 11 6 4 29 Malcolm Harrison '19
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 9 6 2 OCS 36 Mack Totman '19
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 14 4 8 11 37 Sean Groskoph '20
John Alvarez '18
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 11 10 12 5 38 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 13 8 11 6 38 Jillian Torrente '17
Zoe Papier '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 12 9 9 9 39 Sophie Lusty '20
Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 DNS 10 14 44 Thomas Quinn '18
William Przedpelski '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 10 12 13 10 45 Paul Danenberg '19
Zachary Krieger '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 15 13 DNS 12 59 Cooper Lahoud '19
Ryan Mayes '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 DNS 14 14 13 60 Jack Gallagher '19
James Mccarron '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 7 DNS DNS DNS 64 Shannon Groskoph '17
Natalie Herr '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 16 DNS DNS DNS 73 Luke Duplessis '20
Samuel Dempsey '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 17 DNS DNF DNS 74 Mountain Lakes '16
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 14444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 25555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 36666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 49999
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 58888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 67777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 110101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 28888
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 312121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 416161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 511111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 617171717
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 715151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 814141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 97777
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 11111
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 210101010
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils2222

Conditions — 10/18/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From SSW (206°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1011.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.61 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →